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Why ARB grows (and will probably grow further)
This idea is not mine, it was outlined and noticed by Andrew Kang, he noticed an anomaly, a rare combination, when the chance to grow is big, but there is no place to fall. For old-timers who remember, this is pure MATIC situation when it was already falling off after ICO on Binance, but the hype of the project didn't decrease and then it became clear that MATIC had no place to go down, but there is potential to grow. It is the best configuration for a long (the risks are limited and there is an upside, even a small one). In the case of the Matic it ended up with a jump higher than reasonable limits (3 or 4 X's) and then the "Matic figure" happened, when the asset collapsed sharply.
In Arbitrum, the situation is very similar. ARB obviously can't cost cheaper than Optimism, ARB is the best of the LAYER2 blockchains, which means it must be the most expensive. It turns out that Arbitrum had support from the bottom in the form of Optimism's 10 billion kapa, Polygon's (former Matic) kapa, but Arbitrum has no roof or reference point at the top, because no one knows how much the most successful LAYER2 blockchain on ETH can cost at all (10% of its kapa, 20% of its kapa, or maybe 30%?). Because no one can guess how much TVL and attention it will later pull on itself, the upside is unclear in that respect, but it's there.
Hence the simple logic that Andrew Kang, myself and other Narnians from the chat room discerned - there is a limit to risk and possible downside (ARB can't be cheaper than Optimism), there is no clear ceiling on growth. Convex risk, purely according to Taleb. A simple combination on the market LONG.
Optimism rolled away in its day because it didn't have its Arbitrum, but Arbitrum already has Optimism and in general the trend in consciousness for Layer2 took shape precisely after Optimism. Therefore, it is not the right approach to compare with a clever look all these graphs of behavior after unlocking.
Why ARB grows (and will probably grow further)
This idea is not mine, it was outlined and noticed by Andrew Kang, he noticed an anomaly, a rare combination, when the chance to grow is big, but there is no place to fall. For old-timers who remember, this is pure MATIC situation when it was already falling off after ICO on Binance, but the hype of the project didn't decrease and then it became clear that MATIC had no place to go down, but there is potential to grow. It is the best configuration for a long (the risks are limited and there is an upside, even a small one). In the case of the Matic it ended up with a jump higher than reasonable limits (3 or 4 X's) and then the "Matic figure" happened, when the asset collapsed sharply.
In Arbitrum, the situation is very similar. ARB obviously can't cost cheaper than Optimism, ARB is the best of the LAYER2 blockchains, which means it must be the most expensive. It turns out that Arbitrum had support from the bottom in the form of Optimism's 10 billion kapa, Polygon's (former Matic) kapa, but Arbitrum has no roof or reference point at the top, because no one knows how much the most successful LAYER2 blockchain on ETH can cost at all (10% of its kapa, 20% of its kapa, or maybe 30%?). Because no one can guess how much TVL and attention it will later pull on itself, the upside is unclear in that respect, but it's there.
Hence the simple logic that Andrew Kang, myself and other Narnians from the chat room discerned - there is a limit to risk and possible downside (ARB can't be cheaper than Optimism), there is no clear ceiling on growth. Convex risk, purely according to Taleb. A simple combination on the market LONG.
Optimism rolled away in its day because it didn't have its Arbitrum, but Arbitrum already has Optimism and in general the trend in consciousness for Layer2 took shape precisely after Optimism. Therefore, it is not the right approach to compare with a clever look all these graphs of behavior after unlocking.
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