According to scidev.net daily (Shanghai, Reporter Zeng LE), at present, the chain reaction caused by the rise in the price of raw materials upstream of lithium batteries has been transmitted to other links of the industrial chain.

On March 4, Shanghai Steel Union data showed that the quotation of some lithium battery materials continued to rise. Among them, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 5500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 500000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide increased by 6000-7000 yuan / ton; Electrolytic cobalt rose by 3200 yuan / ton; Nickel beans rose 6100 yuan / ton.

With the average price of lithium carbonate standing at 500000 yuan / ton, what impact will it have on all links of the new energy industry chain?

By interviewing more than a dozen practitioners and industry experts, the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily tried to cut in from the perspective of upstream, middle and downstream, so as to remove a trace of fog for the “price rise tide” running through the industrial chain.

▍ upstream: the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery remain “high”

As the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery (positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte) continue to rise, “cost” has also become a high-frequency word in the mouth of many practitioners.

“I don’t know how much the price of lithium will rise, but the cathode material enterprises have reached an unbearable level,” Moke, the founder and President of real lithium research, told the science and Innovation Board daily

“The prices of the main materials and even some auxiliary materials of the battery are rising, which increases the overall cost of the battery by at least more than 50%. The development of lithium battery energy storage will also become difficult.” Facing the “high” upstream raw materials of lithium battery, the management of cathode material enterprises said slightly excitedly.

Industrial Securities research shows that in terms of main material links, the price rise of electrolyte and cathode links is the most significant. From the beginning of 2021 to February 27, 2022, lithium iron phosphate increased by 332%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 189% driven by lithium hexafluorophosphate; Driven by metal prices, ternary cathode materials generally rose by more than 100% during the year.

While the price of upstream raw materials soared, the electrolyte link was also under great pressure. “The main cost of electrolyte lies in lithium hexafluorophosphate. In the past year, lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained high and the profit is very high. In the future, if lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to maintain high profit, the production cost of electrolyte will be very high.”

Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy division of Shanghai Steel Union, said to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “the four main materials are trying to transmit the price to the battery enterprises to balance the production cost, while the battery enterprises can only transmit the price to the vehicle enterprises under the cost pressure.”

▍ midstream: what are the rumors about battery manufacturers reducing production and abandoning buying

With the rise of raw material prices, recently, there are market rumors that Ningde times and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have reduced their production scheduling plan in March. Some media confirmed to Ningde times that this news is not true.

In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department of Shanghai Steel Union, said to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, “it is reported that the battery production plans were finalized a year ago, and the operability of production reduction is relatively weak, which is not conducive to seizing market share. Of course, the problems of material procurement and price transmission will force battery enterprises to reduce production.”

“The battery accounts for about 40% - 60% of the whole vehicle cost. With the rise of the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery, the purchasing cost pressure of battery suppliers will increase, the profit will decline, and even there may be a loss.” Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive industry innovation research center of Northern University of technology, analyzed it to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily.

According to the research of Tianfeng securities, if the impact of bargaining power and procurement volume on the actual procurement cost is combined with the hedging of performance and technological progress and cost price rise, the cost increase transmitted from the price rise of raw materials to the power battery end is about 20% - 25%.

With the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate standing at the high level of 500000 yuan / ton, business analysts said, “the rising price of lithium carbonate has led to the surge in costs of downstream enterprises, increased pressure, reduced acceptance of high lithium prices, and heated up the short-term upstream and downstream game.”

It should be noted that at present, in the industrial chain, excessive prices seem to have triggered the emergence of some boycotts.

Moke, the founder and President of true lithium research, disclosed to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “in terms of middle and downstream applications, some battery and material manufacturers represented by leading enterprises have called on everyone to boycott collectively, and do not buy lithium carbonate with more than 500000 yuan / ton. At the same time, it has sent a signal of production reduction in March.”

Xinlune information analysis believes that the lithium carbonate price of nearly 500000 yuan / ton has squeezed the confidence of three or four echelon battery factories to take goods. From the perspective of cost accounting, it has reached the limit value of the enterprise, and some iron lithium manufacturers have begun to reduce taking goods and output.

A senior executive of an electrolyte enterprise told the science and Innovation Board Daily: “there are many orders for power and energy storage, but there are also long orders, and there are relatively few cases of abandoning to buy lithium carbonate. However, this mainly depends on the ability of battery manufacturers to transmit the price to the downstream. If the price transmission fails, or many manufacturers can only overcome the difficulties by reducing production.”

▍ downstream: the plight of A00 electric vehicles is particularly prominent

“It’s hard for new energy vehicles now, especially A00 electric vehicles. I regret not buying one last year. The subsidy has been refunded, but the cost is rising, and the car is too losing money.” A salesperson from Euler said with emotion to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily.

On February 24, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, announced that “black and white cats stop receiving orders” and said, “Although Euler brand has the advantage of industrial chain behind it, it still brings huge losses to the company! Take black cat as an example. After the sharp rise of raw material prices in 2022, black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. It is a helpless move to stop receiving orders. In the environment of lack of core and less power, if we continue to receive orders, the delivery of new orders will wait until the second half of 2022.”

It is reported that the production cost of three electricity system of black and white cats accounts for about 55% - 60% of the whole vehicle cost. The reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily noted that after Euler announced that the black and white cats stopped receiving orders, he immediately raised the price of the good cat GT model by 12000 yuan, starting from 147000 yuan.

In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “the impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials is gradually progressive, and the products in all links are subject to cost compression and have no choice but to conduct downward. In the process of transmission, there are still many problems

According to scidev.net daily (Shanghai, Reporter Zeng LE), at present, the chain reaction caused by the rise in the price of raw materials upstream of lithium batteries has been transmitted to other links of the industrial chain.

On March 4, Shanghai Steel Union data showed that the quotation of some lithium battery materials continued to rise. Among them, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 5500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 500000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide increased by 6000-7000 yuan / ton; Electrolytic cobalt rose by 3200 yuan / ton; Nickel beans rose 6100 yuan / ton.

With the average price of lithium carbonate standing at 500000 yuan / ton, what impact will it have on all links of the new energy industry chain?

By interviewing more than a dozen practitioners and industry experts, the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily tried to cut in from the perspective of upstream, middle and downstream, so as to remove a trace of fog for the “price rise tide” running through the industrial chain.

▍ upstream: the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery remain “high”

As the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery (positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte) continue to rise, “cost” has also become a high-frequency word in the mouth of many practitioners.

“I don’t know how much the price of lithium will rise, but the cathode material enterprises have reached an unbearable level,” Moke, the founder and President of real lithium research, told the science and Innovation Board daily

“The prices of the main materials and even some auxiliary materials of the battery are rising, which increases the overall cost of the battery by at least more than 50%. The development of lithium battery energy storage will also become difficult.” Facing the “high” upstream raw materials of lithium battery, the management of cathode material enterprises said slightly excitedly.

Industrial Securities research shows that in terms of main material links, the price rise of electrolyte and cathode links is the most significant. From the beginning of 2021 to February 27, 2022, lithium iron phosphate increased by 332%, and the price of electrolyte increased by 189% driven by lithium hexafluorophosphate; Driven by metal prices, ternary cathode materials generally rose by more than 100% during the year.

While the price of upstream raw materials soared, the electrolyte link was also under great pressure. “The main cost of electrolyte lies in lithium hexafluorophosphate. In the past year, lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained high and the profit is very high. In the future, if lithium hexafluorophosphate continues to maintain high profit, the production cost of electrolyte will be very high.”

Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy division of Shanghai Steel Union, said to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “the four main materials are trying to transmit the price to the battery enterprises to balance the production cost, while the battery enterprises can only transmit the price to the vehicle enterprises under the cost pressure.”

▍ midstream: what are the rumors about battery manufacturers reducing production and abandoning buying

With the rise of raw material prices, recently, there are market rumors that Ningde times and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have reduced their production scheduling plan in March. Some media confirmed to Ningde times that this news is not true.

In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department of Shanghai Steel Union, said to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily, “it is reported that the battery production plans were finalized a year ago, and the operability of production reduction is relatively weak, which is not conducive to seizing market share. Of course, the problems of material procurement and price transmission will force battery enterprises to reduce production.”

“The battery accounts for about 40% - 60% of the whole vehicle cost. With the rise of the prices of the four main materials of lithium battery, the purchasing cost pressure of battery suppliers will increase, the profit will decline, and even there may be a loss.” Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive industry innovation research center of Northern University of technology, analyzed it to the reporter of science and Innovation Board daily.

According to the research of Tianfeng securities, if the impact of bargaining power and procurement volume on the actual procurement cost is combined with the hedging of performance and technological progress and cost price rise, the cost increase transmitted from the price rise of raw materials to the power battery end is about 20% - 25%.

With the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate standing at the high level of 500000 yuan / ton, business analysts said, “the rising price of lithium carbonate has led to the surge in costs of downstream enterprises, increased pressure, reduced acceptance of high lithium prices, and heated up the short-term upstream and downstream game.”

It should be noted that at present, in the industrial chain, excessive prices seem to have triggered the emergence of some boycotts.

Moke, the founder and President of true lithium research, disclosed to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “in terms of middle and downstream applications, some battery and material manufacturers represented by leading enterprises have called on everyone to boycott collectively, and do not buy lithium carbonate with more than 500000 yuan / ton. At the same time, it has sent a signal of production reduction in March.”

Xinlune information analysis believes that the lithium carbonate price of nearly 500000 yuan / ton has squeezed the confidence of three or four echelon battery factories to take goods. From the perspective of cost accounting, it has reached the limit value of the enterprise, and some iron lithium manufacturers have begun to reduce taking goods and output.

A senior executive of an electrolyte enterprise told the science and Innovation Board Daily: “there are many orders for power and energy storage, but there are also long orders, and there are relatively few cases of abandoning to buy lithium carbonate. However, this mainly depends on the ability of battery manufacturers to transmit the price to the downstream. If the price transmission fails, or many manufacturers can only overcome the difficulties by reducing production.”

▍ downstream: the plight of A00 electric vehicles is particularly prominent

“It’s hard for new energy vehicles now, especially A00 electric vehicles. I regret not buying one last year. The subsidy has been refunded, but the cost is rising, and the car is too losing money.” A salesperson from Euler said with emotion to the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily.

On February 24, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, announced that “black and white cats stop receiving orders” and said, “Although Euler brand has the advantage of industrial chain behind it, it still brings huge losses to the company! Take black cat as an example. After the sharp rise of raw material prices in 2022, black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. It is a helpless move to stop receiving orders. In the environment of lack of core and less power, if we continue to receive orders, the delivery of new orders will wait until the second half of 2022.”

It is reported that the production cost of three electricity system of black and white cats accounts for about 55% - 60% of the whole vehicle cost. The reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily noted that after Euler announced that the black and white cats stopped receiving orders, he immediately raised the price of the good cat GT model by 12000 yuan, starting from 147000 yuan.

In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, told the reporter of the science and Innovation Board daily, “the impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials is gradually progressive, and the products in all links are subject to cost compression and have no choice but to conduct downward. In the process of transmission, there are still many problems