How might Web3 change the status quo in commerce?Commerce will move to a wallet-centric experience. Brands will access a new toolbox to create really meaningful, intricate interactions with their customers.Before we dive in, what gives Web3 an edge?The composability of NFTs open up a one-to-many world: brands share audiences, collaboration and multi-player commerce.NFTs provide a new layer of social context which brands can tap into from the public ledger.Differentiation of the interaction: b...

How might Web3 change the status quo in commerce?Commerce will move to a wallet-centric experience. Brands will access a new toolbox to create really meaningful, intricate interactions with their customers.Before we dive in, what gives Web3 an edge?The composability of NFTs open up a one-to-many world: brands share audiences, collaboration and multi-player commerce.NFTs provide a new layer of social context which brands can tap into from the public ledger.Differentiation of the interaction: b...

In the grand scheme of human civilization, Web3 has a very recent history. There is relatively little historical data to look at in order to predict broad patterns in the future. If we had 100+ years of data, as we do with traditional economic and financial data, it would likely be easier to extrapolate trends into the future, since most of the possible scenarios have already played out in the past. As a fallback, I’ve been applying lateral thinking to Web3, in order to compensate for the lac...

In the grand scheme of human civilization, Web3 has a very recent history. There is relatively little historical data to look at in order to predict broad patterns in the future. If we had 100+ years of data, as we do with traditional economic and financial data, it would likely be easier to extrapolate trends into the future, since most of the possible scenarios have already played out in the past. As a fallback, I’ve been applying lateral thinking to Web3, in order to compensate for the lac...

I’m trying to make sense of all the distinct, yet interrelated, developments we’ve been seeing in Web3 in 2021. Some much has been happening. I am humbly going to attempt to connect some of the dots, by zooming out, looking at the very big picture, and make an educated guess on how the web3 developments might converge over a multi-decade horizon. Like any long term predictions I admit I will probably be wrong at least partially. Let me now paint the picture I see for 2030 and beyond. What I s...

I’m trying to make sense of all the distinct, yet interrelated, developments we’ve been seeing in Web3 in 2021. Some much has been happening. I am humbly going to attempt to connect some of the dots, by zooming out, looking at the very big picture, and make an educated guess on how the web3 developments might converge over a multi-decade horizon. Like any long term predictions I admit I will probably be wrong at least partially. Let me now paint the picture I see for 2030 and beyond. What I s...

Investing in Web3 is an infinite game. The purpose of the game is to keep playing, compounding good or bad decisions along the way. Part of this infinite game is to bring unique skills and insights and to keep redefining the rules and strategy of the game - could call that the metagame. Web3 also is a game that welcomes diverse people and abilities. The game can be played using different characters, based on one’s strengths. You can play (and win) as an economist, a technologist, a mathematic...

Investing in Web3 is an infinite game. The purpose of the game is to keep playing, compounding good or bad decisions along the way. Part of this infinite game is to bring unique skills and insights and to keep redefining the rules and strategy of the game - could call that the metagame. Web3 also is a game that welcomes diverse people and abilities. The game can be played using different characters, based on one’s strengths. You can play (and win) as an economist, a technologist, a mathematic...

The modern version of software in Web2, Software-as-a-service, is broadly divided in two audiences: consumers and businesses. Of course this is a spectrum and not binary, since you have business software for solo entrepreneurs and S&P 500 companies, and you have prosumer products for specialist consumers. I was not active when the internet emerged in the 1990’s, but I don’t think the line between consumer and business was a thing. Everyone was an "internet investor, VCs had internet funds, an...

The modern version of software in Web2, Software-as-a-service, is broadly divided in two audiences: consumers and businesses. Of course this is a spectrum and not binary, since you have business software for solo entrepreneurs and S&P 500 companies, and you have prosumer products for specialist consumers. I was not active when the internet emerged in the 1990’s, but I don’t think the line between consumer and business was a thing. Everyone was an "internet investor, VCs had internet funds, an...

The seed of this article came when I read Balaji’s excellent post on founding v. inheriting institutions. That post got me wondering what would happen if we just let bloated legacy institutions fail. I am not an anarchist and my hope is not for chaos to prevail. Social and economic institutions play a valuable role to help society work. We need them. But they all default to a top-down, bureaucratic format that increases costs (and inefficiencies) over time. I’d love to find examples when that...

The seed of this article came when I read Balaji’s excellent post on founding v. inheriting institutions. That post got me wondering what would happen if we just let bloated legacy institutions fail. I am not an anarchist and my hope is not for chaos to prevail. Social and economic institutions play a valuable role to help society work. We need them. But they all default to a top-down, bureaucratic format that increases costs (and inefficiencies) over time. I’d love to find examples when that...

Let me open by saying that the motivation for writing is to refer back to this and use as a timeless reminder for myself. Failing well is what I aspire to do on my best days. Please don’t think for a second I got this completely nailed. How to handle failure is one of the most important skills for any creative. IMO How adversity is handled is the best leading indicator of long term growth and success. We’re all bound to run into issues by trying to do ambitious work. It is part of the course....

Let me open by saying that the motivation for writing is to refer back to this and use as a timeless reminder for myself. Failing well is what I aspire to do on my best days. Please don’t think for a second I got this completely nailed. How to handle failure is one of the most important skills for any creative. IMO How adversity is handled is the best leading indicator of long term growth and success. We’re all bound to run into issues by trying to do ambitious work. It is part of the course....

Economic activity is linked to the flow of money in the system. The more money flows, the more a society is considered productive. People use money to pay for goods and services, and the same dollar can be used to pay for many transactions in a given year. Monetary velocity is used to determine the quantity of dollars in circulation. What would happen if people decided to hodl their currency and stored their fiat money in their bank account or under their mattress? That would mean there is le...

Economic activity is linked to the flow of money in the system. The more money flows, the more a society is considered productive. People use money to pay for goods and services, and the same dollar can be used to pay for many transactions in a given year. Monetary velocity is used to determine the quantity of dollars in circulation. What would happen if people decided to hodl their currency and stored their fiat money in their bank account or under their mattress? That would mean there is le...

Why write daily? First off I believe consistent action is a superpower. The systems, habits, inputs that come to form the right kind behaviour for maximal results. While goals are important for any achievement, the goals themselves are not actionable. It is what you do (well and consistently) that makes you reach your goals. It take both a clear vision for what you want and how you’ll get it. To me, writing is leverage. It has a domino effect on other aspects of my life. Writing is my way of ...

Why write daily? First off I believe consistent action is a superpower. The systems, habits, inputs that come to form the right kind behaviour for maximal results. While goals are important for any achievement, the goals themselves are not actionable. It is what you do (well and consistently) that makes you reach your goals. It take both a clear vision for what you want and how you’ll get it. To me, writing is leverage. It has a domino effect on other aspects of my life. Writing is my way of ...

A Web3 theme I want to see emerge in 2022 is the rise of learn-to-earn models. Play-to-earn came onto the scene last year with Axie Infinity. It was pretty mind-blowing to observe how Web3 can actually help people that are economically vulnerable. Anyone can earn a new source of income by playing Axie. I believe that Axie has proven a new model, the X-to-earn model, and several other products will soon offer users financial rewards in return for their attention. With x-to-earn models, users a...

A Web3 theme I want to see emerge in 2022 is the rise of learn-to-earn models. Play-to-earn came onto the scene last year with Axie Infinity. It was pretty mind-blowing to observe how Web3 can actually help people that are economically vulnerable. Anyone can earn a new source of income by playing Axie. I believe that Axie has proven a new model, the X-to-earn model, and several other products will soon offer users financial rewards in return for their attention. With x-to-earn models, users a...

What is most likely to become the moat of smart contract L1/L2 blockchains over the longer term? Assuming network effects are a given for a blockchain that is able to scale; where will the defensible value be created?Technology: faster and cheaper transactions that can scale to 1 billion+ users?Community: teams building (on top of each other) a wide range of dapps?2021 showed us we live in a multi-chain reality. Several L1s saw great traction in the past months. This begs the question: How de...

What is most likely to become the moat of smart contract L1/L2 blockchains over the longer term? Assuming network effects are a given for a blockchain that is able to scale; where will the defensible value be created?Technology: faster and cheaper transactions that can scale to 1 billion+ users?Community: teams building (on top of each other) a wide range of dapps?2021 showed us we live in a multi-chain reality. Several L1s saw great traction in the past months. This begs the question: How de...

No doubt that the rise of profile picture NFT projects was a big deal in 2021. $13B+ in transaction volume that came out of nowhere. The rise of Cryptopunks, Bored Apes and a tail of other profile picture projects (PFPs) has been tickling our collective imagination. From my perspective, the concept of programmable digital ownership is the big idea that was unlocked by NFTs. A new use case for digital scarcity has been discovered and validated. This is a technological breakthrough, a new inter...

No doubt that the rise of profile picture NFT projects was a big deal in 2021. $13B+ in transaction volume that came out of nowhere. The rise of Cryptopunks, Bored Apes and a tail of other profile picture projects (PFPs) has been tickling our collective imagination. From my perspective, the concept of programmable digital ownership is the big idea that was unlocked by NFTs. A new use case for digital scarcity has been discovered and validated. This is a technological breakthrough, a new inter...