Now that I’ve come to the conclusion that Bitcoin’s top is in, it feels like the right time to wrap up my thoughts on the past four-year cycle and set the stage for the next one.

Bitcoin climbed from a bottom around $15K in early 2022 to a peak near $120K in late 2025, pulling off roughly an 8x in four years. But there’s a clear pattern: Bitcoin’s ROI keeps shrinking each cycle.

• In 2014–2017, it went from ~$200 to ~$20,000 — a jaw-dropping 100x.

• In 2017–2021, it rose from ~$3K to ~$69K — about 23x.

• Now 2022–2025, only 8x.

If the trend holds, the next cycle (2026–2029) might deliver just a 2–3x. Not bad — but not the rocket ride early Bitcoiners remember.

While Bitcoin pulled off +700% this cycle, my own portfolio barely moved — maybe even declined. Ironically, I still caught two major airdrops worth around $10K along the way. You’d think that would help, but apparently, not enough to beat the orange coin.

Honestly, it’s been humbling. Underperforming Bitcoin — again — shakes your confidence a bit. But it wasn’t all wasted time. I came out of this cycle with scars, stories, and a personal playbook I call RB-0913 — lessons written in gas fees and lost ETH.

Especially not some KOL who seems to know it all. In reality, most KOLs are just anons with microphones. Some are clueless, others are dishonest — and some are both.
I learned this the hard way when I lost 6 ETH (~$24K at its peak) to 币圈老鱼. Painful, but unforgettable.

No matter how smart you think you are, leverage eventually humbles everyone. Even RB-0913, who times tops and bottoms decently well, would still get rekt now and then. The market doesn’t forgive leverage greed.

No one truly knows which one will print. Ignore the noise — 99% of altcoins end up bleeding against BTC and ETH.
Still, altcoins can be worth engaging with — just keep expectations realistic and size positions responsibly.

Follow RB-0913 for ETH trades, catch the beta, enjoy the ride. Self-trust is the best alpha.

Airdrops remain one of the best asymmetric opportunities in crypto. Keep farming, report to 财神爷 weekly, but always double-check before depositing to any protocol. Free money isn’t always risk-free.

These lessons came at a cost — probably a million-dollar opportunity, if not more. But that’s the tuition fee of the crypto game.

The next cycle will come faster than we expect. I’m going in lighter, sharper, and humbler — guided by the same principle that’s never failed me yet:
“Survive the bear, harvest the bull, and never stop learning.”

Now that I’ve come to the conclusion that Bitcoin’s top is in, it feels like the right time to wrap up my thoughts on the past four-year cycle and set the stage for the next one.

Bitcoin climbed from a bottom around $15K in early 2022 to a peak near $120K in late 2025, pulling off roughly an 8x in four years. But there’s a clear pattern: Bitcoin’s ROI keeps shrinking each cycle.

• In 2014–2017, it went from ~$200 to ~$20,000 — a jaw-dropping 100x.

• In 2017–2021, it rose from ~$3K to ~$69K — about 23x.

• Now 2022–2025, only 8x.

If the trend holds, the next cycle (2026–2029) might deliver just a 2–3x. Not bad — but not the rocket ride early Bitcoiners remember.

While Bitcoin pulled off +700% this cycle, my own portfolio barely moved — maybe even declined. Ironically, I still caught two major airdrops worth around $10K along the way. You’d think that would help, but apparently, not enough to beat the orange coin.

Honestly, it’s been humbling. Underperforming Bitcoin — again — shakes your confidence a bit. But it wasn’t all wasted time. I came out of this cycle with scars, stories, and a personal playbook I call RB-0913 — lessons written in gas fees and lost ETH.

Especially not some KOL who seems to know it all. In reality, most KOLs are just anons with microphones. Some are clueless, others are dishonest — and some are both.
I learned this the hard way when I lost 6 ETH (~$24K at its peak) to 币圈老鱼. Painful, but unforgettable.

No matter how smart you think you are, leverage eventually humbles everyone. Even RB-0913, who times tops and bottoms decently well, would still get rekt now and then. The market doesn’t forgive leverage greed.

No one truly knows which one will print. Ignore the noise — 99% of altcoins end up bleeding against BTC and ETH.
Still, altcoins can be worth engaging with — just keep expectations realistic and size positions responsibly.

Follow RB-0913 for ETH trades, catch the beta, enjoy the ride. Self-trust is the best alpha.

Airdrops remain one of the best asymmetric opportunities in crypto. Keep farming, report to 财神爷 weekly, but always double-check before depositing to any protocol. Free money isn’t always risk-free.

These lessons came at a cost — probably a million-dollar opportunity, if not more. But that’s the tuition fee of the crypto game.

The next cycle will come faster than we expect. I’m going in lighter, sharper, and humbler — guided by the same principle that’s never failed me yet:
“Survive the bear, harvest the bull, and never stop learning.”