If you understand prediction markets, you know they could become very valuable. Academics have written papers and modeled them for years. Their time has come. I saw where Polymarket was going to start prediction markets in individual city housing markets. What a fantastic idea. A liquid market will help buyers and sellers understand the real pulse of the market. It will help guide realtors. It will help guide developers. Ultimately, it will help guide government officials and boards on zoning...

If you understand prediction markets, you know they could become very valuable. Academics have written papers and modeled them for years. Their time has come. I saw where Polymarket was going to start prediction markets in individual city housing markets. What a fantastic idea. A liquid market will help buyers and sellers understand the real pulse of the market. It will help guide realtors. It will help guide developers. Ultimately, it will help guide government officials and boards on zoning...

If you didn’t believe that Americans were watching two different television programs at the same time, the recent announcement that a grand jury was investigating the Federal Reserve is a textbook example. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, no fan of Trump, immediately took to the airwaves before the investigation was announced and made a video. In it, he said this was a political vendetta against him personally because of the interest rate policy. Sanctimoniously, he talked about Fed independence and ...

If you didn’t believe that Americans were watching two different television programs at the same time, the recent announcement that a grand jury was investigating the Federal Reserve is a textbook example. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, no fan of Trump, immediately took to the airwaves before the investigation was announced and made a video. In it, he said this was a political vendetta against him personally because of the interest rate policy. Sanctimoniously, he talked about Fed independence and ...

Two things flashed upon my radar screen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is restricting people who get public transfer payments from the federal government from sending the money across the US border to other countries. The other is that California hired a DEI person to make sure California pensions are invested accordingly. Why is Bessent correct and California wrong? It’s because it is public money. Both the money for the transfer payments and the money to invest in public pensions are pro...

Two things flashed upon my radar screen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is restricting people who get public transfer payments from the federal government from sending the money across the US border to other countries. The other is that California hired a DEI person to make sure California pensions are invested accordingly. Why is Bessent correct and California wrong? It’s because it is public money. Both the money for the transfer payments and the money to invest in public pensions are pro...

Yesterday, I blogged about fraud and money and how it raises the costs of all campaigns. You might call it “trickle down costs”. As every campaign at the top of tickets gets more expensive, lower ticket races get more expensive. If there is fraud, like we talked about yesterday, the price gets artificially inflated, but it affects all prices in the entire campaign stack. When you are a private citizen sitting in your armchair and you make the decision to jump into a race, you are confronted w...

Yesterday, I blogged about fraud and money and how it raises the costs of all campaigns. You might call it “trickle down costs”. As every campaign at the top of tickets gets more expensive, lower ticket races get more expensive. If there is fraud, like we talked about yesterday, the price gets artificially inflated, but it affects all prices in the entire campaign stack. When you are a private citizen sitting in your armchair and you make the decision to jump into a race, you are confronted w...

How many times have you heard a career politician say, “I want to get the money out of politics and get the special interests out of politics?” I think we could search the internet and find at least 100 videos of career politicians as diverse as Barney Frank to John McCain, saying something like that. The real way to get money out of politics is to shrink the size and scope of the government. That changes the incentives. Without the (fill in the blank) government industrial complex that surro...

How many times have you heard a career politician say, “I want to get the money out of politics and get the special interests out of politics?” I think we could search the internet and find at least 100 videos of career politicians as diverse as Barney Frank to John McCain, saying something like that. The real way to get money out of politics is to shrink the size and scope of the government. That changes the incentives. Without the (fill in the blank) government industrial complex that surro...

After many conversations and careful thought, I am running for the Republican nomination for State Treasurer of Nevada. I am asking for your support monetarily, spiritually, and, if you are a resident of Nevada, actively. I am grateful to the people who took the time to speak with me. What they said helped me reach a decision. Decisions like this take time, and I have been cogitating about it for a while. Like a normal business person, I did my diligence. I don’t need to do this for the money...

After many conversations and careful thought, I am running for the Republican nomination for State Treasurer of Nevada. I am asking for your support monetarily, spiritually, and, if you are a resident of Nevada, actively. I am grateful to the people who took the time to speak with me. What they said helped me reach a decision. Decisions like this take time, and I have been cogitating about it for a while. Like a normal business person, I did my diligence. I don’t need to do this for the money...

Derek Stevens owns a few casinos in Las Vegas. He tweeted this out the other day. In Prediction Markets (which we are being told isn’t Sports Gambling but are sports contracts) you are required to pay income tax on all Unrealized Gains every December 31 due to Mark To Market accounting of Section 1256 for contracts? Is that correct ?? The IRS hasn’t ruled on prediction markets. Here is a ten-minute vid explaining it. Let’s apply some consistency, which courts and accountants love. The CFTC ha...

Derek Stevens owns a few casinos in Las Vegas. He tweeted this out the other day. In Prediction Markets (which we are being told isn’t Sports Gambling but are sports contracts) you are required to pay income tax on all Unrealized Gains every December 31 due to Mark To Market accounting of Section 1256 for contracts? Is that correct ?? The IRS hasn’t ruled on prediction markets. Here is a ten-minute vid explaining it. Let’s apply some consistency, which courts and accountants love. The CFTC ha...

Hope you get some Hoppin’ John tomorrow. Thanks for all your support and comments in the last year. I appreciate it. More to come next year. It will be fun and pivotal for a lot of reasons. Right now, the prediction markets show a 73% chance that Democrats take control of the House. I think they are mispriced. I don’t think the Minnesota fraud has worked its way into the market yet, and neither has the wealth tax proposal in California. State elections are becoming more nationalized in a way ...

Hope you get some Hoppin’ John tomorrow. Thanks for all your support and comments in the last year. I appreciate it. More to come next year. It will be fun and pivotal for a lot of reasons. Right now, the prediction markets show a 73% chance that Democrats take control of the House. I think they are mispriced. I don’t think the Minnesota fraud has worked its way into the market yet, and neither has the wealth tax proposal in California. State elections are becoming more nationalized in a way ...

My X blew up yesterday. The fraud in Minnesota is appalling. I suggest you check out Power Line and County Highway for information. Even if you are a strong Democrat, you ought to be appalled. The level of fraud and theft is unparalleled. The other issue blowing up my X is the proposed wealth tax in California. I thought that David Friedberg had a wonderful piece on his X stream here. Atlas isn’t shrugging anymore. For more information, read the hubris of Ro Khanna. Peter Thiel is leaving Cal...

My X blew up yesterday. The fraud in Minnesota is appalling. I suggest you check out Power Line and County Highway for information. Even if you are a strong Democrat, you ought to be appalled. The level of fraud and theft is unparalleled. The other issue blowing up my X is the proposed wealth tax in California. I thought that David Friedberg had a wonderful piece on his X stream here. Atlas isn’t shrugging anymore. For more information, read the hubris of Ro Khanna. Peter Thiel is leaving Cal...

Last night, I was at a post-Christmas, Christmas party. In Norway, it’s traditional to have that sort of party. My mother’s parents were Norwegian. My great-grandmother came over in the early 1900s. I was able to snag a couple of krumkakes last night and enjoyed the pickled beets. Many people in my friend group and network are fans of that team up north. The Green Bay Packers. I haven’t heard much from them today. Maybe the bomb cyclone hitting them from Canada has frozen their tongues. As Be...

Last night, I was at a post-Christmas, Christmas party. In Norway, it’s traditional to have that sort of party. My mother’s parents were Norwegian. My great-grandmother came over in the early 1900s. I was able to snag a couple of krumkakes last night and enjoyed the pickled beets. Many people in my friend group and network are fans of that team up north. The Green Bay Packers. I haven’t heard much from them today. Maybe the bomb cyclone hitting them from Canada has frozen their tongues. As Be...