Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchBridges 8/15/23
While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...
Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchBridges 8/15/23
While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...
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Bitcoin, aka Magic Internet Money, crossed $100k this week.
Since posting Dominance on Nov 9th, the total crypto market cap increased by $1T. To put that number in context, $1T is the total market cap of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway.
Bitcoin is now the 7th most valuable asset in the world.
We are beginning to see evidence of the market shifting from a Bitcoin dominated to an Alt dominated regime (aka Alt szn). Alts more than doubled Bitcoin’s performance in the last month (106 vs 43%).
This is in stark contrast to the last twelve months when Bitcoin more than doubled Alt’s performance (119 vs 52%).
In the context of a multi-cycle framework, the last time we saw rising Bitcoin, a major drop in Bitcoin dominance, and outperformance by the rest of the crypto market was the period January to May 2021 when:
Total crypto market cap increased 247%
Bitcoin increased 132%
Bitcoin dominance dropped from 74% to 41%
The crypto market excluding Bitcoin increased 618%
What happens if we apply last cycle growth rates to the market starting when Trump was elected in November? How about more modest growth assumptions?
The takeaway even after accounting for the steep price action since November is…
Alt szn is here and has plenty of room to run, even with modest growth assumptions.
Total Crypto market cap to $5T is up 42% from here
BTC to $120k is up another 23%
Crypto market cap excl. BTC to $3T is up another 87%
Then the question becomes, which Alt charts have favorable setups with price targets exceeding the 87% expected growth in the overall market excluding BTC?
At least that’s the question long term holders have been asking for the last month as they sold $60B of Bitcoin bought at the cycle lows.
Some have been buying this defi protocol whose ATH provides a price target which nearly doubles the expected overall market growth (168% vs 87%):
My goal with this post is less to perfectly forecast the future and more to share a framework that’s helped me make sense of phase transitions in the market cycle.
And the takeaway is clear. Alt szn is here!
PS. Nothing captures the current vibe better than Beeple’s Nov 19th Everyday.
Bitcoin, aka Magic Internet Money, crossed $100k this week.
Since posting Dominance on Nov 9th, the total crypto market cap increased by $1T. To put that number in context, $1T is the total market cap of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway.
Bitcoin is now the 7th most valuable asset in the world.
We are beginning to see evidence of the market shifting from a Bitcoin dominated to an Alt dominated regime (aka Alt szn). Alts more than doubled Bitcoin’s performance in the last month (106 vs 43%).
This is in stark contrast to the last twelve months when Bitcoin more than doubled Alt’s performance (119 vs 52%).
In the context of a multi-cycle framework, the last time we saw rising Bitcoin, a major drop in Bitcoin dominance, and outperformance by the rest of the crypto market was the period January to May 2021 when:
Total crypto market cap increased 247%
Bitcoin increased 132%
Bitcoin dominance dropped from 74% to 41%
The crypto market excluding Bitcoin increased 618%
What happens if we apply last cycle growth rates to the market starting when Trump was elected in November? How about more modest growth assumptions?
The takeaway even after accounting for the steep price action since November is…
Alt szn is here and has plenty of room to run, even with modest growth assumptions.
Total Crypto market cap to $5T is up 42% from here
BTC to $120k is up another 23%
Crypto market cap excl. BTC to $3T is up another 87%
Then the question becomes, which Alt charts have favorable setups with price targets exceeding the 87% expected growth in the overall market excluding BTC?
At least that’s the question long term holders have been asking for the last month as they sold $60B of Bitcoin bought at the cycle lows.
Some have been buying this defi protocol whose ATH provides a price target which nearly doubles the expected overall market growth (168% vs 87%):
My goal with this post is less to perfectly forecast the future and more to share a framework that’s helped me make sense of phase transitions in the market cycle.
And the takeaway is clear. Alt szn is here!
PS. Nothing captures the current vibe better than Beeple’s Nov 19th Everyday.
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