Bitcoin is making headlines again (the good kind) after two months of face melting candles. It is up 62% since October 6th, Coinbase is climbing* the iOS finance app rankings, and Saylor and Bukele are back in the black.*Coinbase reaching #1 is a decent top signal There is no single indicator that can reliably predict market bottoms, but in two bottom signal pieces in the summer of 2022 I noted:It is much harder to pinpoint a bottom than it is to identify where we are in a cycle. If you are i...

Bitcoin is making headlines again (the good kind) after two months of face melting candles. It is up 62% since October 6th, Coinbase is climbing* the iOS finance app rankings, and Saylor and Bukele are back in the black.*Coinbase reaching #1 is a decent top signal There is no single indicator that can reliably predict market bottoms, but in two bottom signal pieces in the summer of 2022 I noted:It is much harder to pinpoint a bottom than it is to identify where we are in a cycle. If you are i...

KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...

KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...

BTC boomerangs to range last seen in June 2022.Bird’s Eye ViewTailwinds 8 BTC ETF applications backed by credible institutions head towards SEC final deadline Q1 2024Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin at the intersection of AI x robotics x macro megatrendsInstitutional adoption considerably expands addressable market.Many expected economy to be worse off than it is…Headwinds PacWest bank failure is a reminder we aren’t out of the woods yet.While bank failures happen even during euphoric phases of...

BTC boomerangs to range last seen in June 2022.Bird’s Eye ViewTailwinds 8 BTC ETF applications backed by credible institutions head towards SEC final deadline Q1 2024Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin at the intersection of AI x robotics x macro megatrendsInstitutional adoption considerably expands addressable market.Many expected economy to be worse off than it is…Headwinds PacWest bank failure is a reminder we aren’t out of the woods yet.While bank failures happen even during euphoric phases of...

Bitcoin pumped to $35k this week, a level last seen over a year ago (May 2022). The move pushed past the upper bollinger band and sent the BTC x SPY correlation coefficient negative for only the fourth time in three years.ETF approvals are the loudest narrative on crypto twitter and for good reason. The first Gold ETF in November 2004 corresponded with a nice run (>4x) in the spot price of the fancy yellow metal.Galaxy predicts over $14B could flow into Bitcoin from broker-dealers, banks, and...

Bitcoin pumped to $35k this week, a level last seen over a year ago (May 2022). The move pushed past the upper bollinger band and sent the BTC x SPY correlation coefficient negative for only the fourth time in three years.ETF approvals are the loudest narrative on crypto twitter and for good reason. The first Gold ETF in November 2004 corresponded with a nice run (>4x) in the spot price of the fancy yellow metal.Galaxy predicts over $14B could flow into Bitcoin from broker-dealers, banks, and...

gm fam. we are trying out a new format. this account will share more regular but less structured research relative to our primary mirror account. themes include but not limited to macro, web3, AI, IP, and the metaverse. nothing here is investment advice, just data and commentary for fun and learning. best way to reach us is on twitter.

gm fam. we are trying out a new format. this account will share more regular but less structured research relative to our primary mirror account. themes include but not limited to macro, web3, AI, IP, and the metaverse. nothing here is investment advice, just data and commentary for fun and learning. best way to reach us is on twitter.

When you sit at a blackjack table, you have several options. You can bet the same amount each round, bet a random amount, or try to bet an amount based on how likely you are to win. Counting cards, where you (try to) keep track of the proportion of high cards to low cards remaining in the deck or shoe, is a way to estimate your chance of winning. By keeping track of the count, you can determine when the deck is rich in high cards (favorable to the player) or low cards (favorable to the dealer...

When you sit at a blackjack table, you have several options. You can bet the same amount each round, bet a random amount, or try to bet an amount based on how likely you are to win. Counting cards, where you (try to) keep track of the proportion of high cards to low cards remaining in the deck or shoe, is a way to estimate your chance of winning. By keeping track of the count, you can determine when the deck is rich in high cards (favorable to the player) or low cards (favorable to the dealer...

It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...

It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...

Hey Siri, what is a hard asset that can’t be debased by the government? And how does its purchasing power compare to the dollar’s over time?Bitcoin is a hard asset with a fixed supply that can’t be tampered with by the government. While the dollar’s purchasing power decreases over time, Bitcoin’s purchasing power rose exponentially over the last decade.Thanks Siri, now explain like I’m 5 years old.You need more dollars to buy a house today than you needed 10 years ago. But you need way less B...

Hey Siri, what is a hard asset that can’t be debased by the government? And how does its purchasing power compare to the dollar’s over time?Bitcoin is a hard asset with a fixed supply that can’t be tampered with by the government. While the dollar’s purchasing power decreases over time, Bitcoin’s purchasing power rose exponentially over the last decade.Thanks Siri, now explain like I’m 5 years old.You need more dollars to buy a house today than you needed 10 years ago. But you need way less B...

If you have used Waze, you’ve taken side streets to avoid traffic. Similar to highways during rush hour, blockchains get congested* too and using a blockchain layer is like taking a side street to avoid congestion. *Blockchains can settle a finite transaction volume per unit time. When blockspace demand exceeds capacity, transaction fees are used to prioritize which transactions are included in each block. So as fees rise, end users experience delays (congestion), unless they are willing to p...

If you have used Waze, you’ve taken side streets to avoid traffic. Similar to highways during rush hour, blockchains get congested* too and using a blockchain layer is like taking a side street to avoid congestion. *Blockchains can settle a finite transaction volume per unit time. When blockspace demand exceeds capacity, transaction fees are used to prioritize which transactions are included in each block. So as fees rise, end users experience delays (congestion), unless they are willing to p...

Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...

Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...

While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...

While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...