Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
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BTC boomerangs to range last seen in June 2022.
Tailwinds
8 BTC ETF applications backed by credible institutions head towards SEC final deadline Q1 2024
Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin at the intersection of AI x robotics x macro megatrends
Institutional adoption considerably expands addressable market.
Many expected economy to be worse off than it is…
Headwinds
PacWest bank failure is a reminder we aren’t out of the woods yet.
While bank failures happen even during euphoric phases of the market cycle…
3 of the 7 largest bank failures in history happened this year, more to come?
Securitization is a $14 trillion US market
Tradfi embraces on chain assets
Defi embraces off chain assets
Web3 securitization ecosystem is robust
Centrifuge launches on chain ecosystem for structured credit
From Dust on Crust by Arthur Hayes:
USD fiat stablecoins simply won’t be allowed to scale to the size needed to take crypto trillions of dollars higher in market cap (assuming you believe total crypto market cap is positively correlated to the total amount of USD stablecoins outstanding). It is just too risky to the US financial system to have all those dollars in the hands of organisations that must immediately liquidate their debt holdings to make good on their promises to their customers. And so, while the three majors (USDT, USDC, BUSD) might continue to exist, there is a ceiling on how large they can grow their deposit base in aggregate.
…
But this is not a reason for concern. We, the crypto faithful, have the tools and the organisations needed to support $1 trillion or more worth of NakaUSD outstanding. If this solution were embraced by traders and exchanges, it would lead to a large growth in Bitcoin derivatives open interest, which would in turn create deep liquidity. This would help both speculators and hedgers. It would become a positive flywheel that would not only benefit the member exchanges, but also DeFi users and anyone else who needs a USD token that can be moved 24/7 with a low fee.
1 NUSD = $1 of Bitcoin + Short 1 Bitcoin / USD Inverse Perpetual Swap
Coreweave raises $421M series B
Together raises $20M for open source AI models
Together is using former crypto miners for GPUs and other hardware to build virtual server farms. It has leased thousands of GPUs to help power Together’s cloud service for AI developers.
Crypto miners seek new life in AI boom
Atrium is a production studio for Web3 native IP
Cautious about euphoria in equity markets
Problems still looming in banking sector (bank failures and inflation linked debt)
EOY recession still a possibility.
Recession was priced in as of Q4 2022 but maybe not anymore?
L2 TVL shows durable demand for fast and cheap transactions:
Bitcoiners embrace layers to expand utility of BTC network.
Short term holders driving price action since FTX collapse in Q4 2022
Bollinger Bands separated by 4.2% indicating historically low volatility
Declining stablecoin market cap evidence of risk on rotation and shift to RWA collateral
On June 21, MakerDAO purchased another $700 million worth of U.S. Treasuries to bring its total holdings to $1.2 billion. The protocol’s $2.3 billion worth of RWA collateral is now the protocol’s largest collateral type comprising 49% of Maker’s assets.
RTFKT x NVIDIA 3D Avatar Keynote
Wilder World to launch racing game by EOY
Gmunk Geometra exhibit in London
88eth Pak 1/1 sale
Aku avatars on Reddit and Beats collab
130 eth xcopy 1 yr loan on NFTfi
Sam Spratt memo
Louis Vuitton x Pharrell in Web3
OpenSea enables trades
Botto 13eth sale at Christies
BTC boomerangs to range last seen in June 2022.
Tailwinds
8 BTC ETF applications backed by credible institutions head towards SEC final deadline Q1 2024
Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin at the intersection of AI x robotics x macro megatrends
Institutional adoption considerably expands addressable market.
Many expected economy to be worse off than it is…
Headwinds
PacWest bank failure is a reminder we aren’t out of the woods yet.
While bank failures happen even during euphoric phases of the market cycle…
3 of the 7 largest bank failures in history happened this year, more to come?
Securitization is a $14 trillion US market
Tradfi embraces on chain assets
Defi embraces off chain assets
Web3 securitization ecosystem is robust
Centrifuge launches on chain ecosystem for structured credit
From Dust on Crust by Arthur Hayes:
USD fiat stablecoins simply won’t be allowed to scale to the size needed to take crypto trillions of dollars higher in market cap (assuming you believe total crypto market cap is positively correlated to the total amount of USD stablecoins outstanding). It is just too risky to the US financial system to have all those dollars in the hands of organisations that must immediately liquidate their debt holdings to make good on their promises to their customers. And so, while the three majors (USDT, USDC, BUSD) might continue to exist, there is a ceiling on how large they can grow their deposit base in aggregate.
…
But this is not a reason for concern. We, the crypto faithful, have the tools and the organisations needed to support $1 trillion or more worth of NakaUSD outstanding. If this solution were embraced by traders and exchanges, it would lead to a large growth in Bitcoin derivatives open interest, which would in turn create deep liquidity. This would help both speculators and hedgers. It would become a positive flywheel that would not only benefit the member exchanges, but also DeFi users and anyone else who needs a USD token that can be moved 24/7 with a low fee.
1 NUSD = $1 of Bitcoin + Short 1 Bitcoin / USD Inverse Perpetual Swap
Coreweave raises $421M series B
Together raises $20M for open source AI models
Together is using former crypto miners for GPUs and other hardware to build virtual server farms. It has leased thousands of GPUs to help power Together’s cloud service for AI developers.
Crypto miners seek new life in AI boom
Atrium is a production studio for Web3 native IP
Cautious about euphoria in equity markets
Problems still looming in banking sector (bank failures and inflation linked debt)
EOY recession still a possibility.
Recession was priced in as of Q4 2022 but maybe not anymore?
L2 TVL shows durable demand for fast and cheap transactions:
Bitcoiners embrace layers to expand utility of BTC network.
Short term holders driving price action since FTX collapse in Q4 2022
Bollinger Bands separated by 4.2% indicating historically low volatility
Declining stablecoin market cap evidence of risk on rotation and shift to RWA collateral
On June 21, MakerDAO purchased another $700 million worth of U.S. Treasuries to bring its total holdings to $1.2 billion. The protocol’s $2.3 billion worth of RWA collateral is now the protocol’s largest collateral type comprising 49% of Maker’s assets.
RTFKT x NVIDIA 3D Avatar Keynote
Wilder World to launch racing game by EOY
Gmunk Geometra exhibit in London
88eth Pak 1/1 sale
Aku avatars on Reddit and Beats collab
130 eth xcopy 1 yr loan on NFTfi
Sam Spratt memo
Louis Vuitton x Pharrell in Web3
OpenSea enables trades
Botto 13eth sale at Christies
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