Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchBridges 8/15/23
While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...
Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchBridges 8/15/23
While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoinVisa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costsEurope approves first spot bitcoin ETFGnosis pay...
Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
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KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift.
Tailwinds
We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago.
It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:
Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reduction
Social: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukraine fundraising, and access to energy in rural Africa
Governance: Bitcoin is a decentralized system that cannot be abused or misused by those in power or even individuals with ulterior motives.
Tyler Cowen concluded in a 2020 follow-up to his book on the Great Stagnation with an observation: “The gains from truly mobilizing the internet may in fact right now be swamping all the accumulated obstacles we have put in the way of progress”.
According to this chart from Raoul, Crypto adoption is increasing at a similar rate as the internet was during a comparable phase in its adoption cycle -- and even relative to web2 companies which launched the gig economy, crypto protocols are superior for trustless, incentive aligned coordination of pseudonymous people online.
But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.
Headwinds
Fitch downgrades US debt. Could be nothing …until it’s something.
US debt to GDP ratio expected to reach 118% by 2025 more than 2.5x the median for AAA rated companies
Fitch also cites an “erosion of governance” which was a factor in its rating
The fallout of a reentrancy exploit could devalue CRV and threaten solvency of top Defi protocols as Egorov races to find buyers for his bags.
US DOJ still has Binance in its crosshairs. Allegedly hasnt filed charges due to concerns of a run on the exchange. Crypto split in two camps on this one: Binance is either fine OR it’s totally insolvent.
Earnings exceed expectations
…and fund managers lever up to chase rally
Treasury to borrow $1.85 trillion in Q3 and Q4 2023
Bloomberg ETF analysts increase Bitcoin ETF approval odds
…and 6 issuers filed Ethereum Futures ETFs
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1686752210036604928
MKR and COMP led rally in top Defi tokens prior to CRV exploit
Pixar, Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, and Nvidia form Open Alliance for 3d content
Skulls of Luci on NG
Museum of Mahomes partners with D-O-M for on chain sports collectibles
Lvcidia staking season 2
Pudgy Penguin international endcaps
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift.
Tailwinds
We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago.
It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:
Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reduction
Social: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukraine fundraising, and access to energy in rural Africa
Governance: Bitcoin is a decentralized system that cannot be abused or misused by those in power or even individuals with ulterior motives.
Tyler Cowen concluded in a 2020 follow-up to his book on the Great Stagnation with an observation: “The gains from truly mobilizing the internet may in fact right now be swamping all the accumulated obstacles we have put in the way of progress”.
According to this chart from Raoul, Crypto adoption is increasing at a similar rate as the internet was during a comparable phase in its adoption cycle -- and even relative to web2 companies which launched the gig economy, crypto protocols are superior for trustless, incentive aligned coordination of pseudonymous people online.
But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows.
Headwinds
Fitch downgrades US debt. Could be nothing …until it’s something.
US debt to GDP ratio expected to reach 118% by 2025 more than 2.5x the median for AAA rated companies
Fitch also cites an “erosion of governance” which was a factor in its rating
The fallout of a reentrancy exploit could devalue CRV and threaten solvency of top Defi protocols as Egorov races to find buyers for his bags.
US DOJ still has Binance in its crosshairs. Allegedly hasnt filed charges due to concerns of a run on the exchange. Crypto split in two camps on this one: Binance is either fine OR it’s totally insolvent.
Earnings exceed expectations
…and fund managers lever up to chase rally
Treasury to borrow $1.85 trillion in Q3 and Q4 2023
Bloomberg ETF analysts increase Bitcoin ETF approval odds
…and 6 issuers filed Ethereum Futures ETFs
https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1686752210036604928
MKR and COMP led rally in top Defi tokens prior to CRV exploit
Pixar, Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, and Nvidia form Open Alliance for 3d content
Skulls of Luci on NG
Museum of Mahomes partners with D-O-M for on chain sports collectibles
Lvcidia staking season 2
Pudgy Penguin international endcaps
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