Bitcoin pumped to $35k this week, a level last seen over a year ago (May 2022).
The move pushed past the upper bollinger band and sent the BTC x SPY correlation coefficient negative for only the fourth time in three years.
ETF approvals are the loudest narrative on crypto twitter and for good reason.
The first Gold ETF in November 2004 corresponded with a nice run (>4x) in the spot price of the fancy yellow metal.
Galaxy predicts over $14B could flow into Bitcoin from broker-dealers, banks, and retirement accounts in the first year after an ETF is approved. Big, if true.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly concerned about inflation.
In Where is the Bottom? back in June 2022, we acknowledged how inflation regimes affect asset class correlations. Since the Sept 20th meeting long term term treasuries (TLT) dumped and equity x bond correlation flipped positive for the first time in 20 years.
The structural hedging needs of banks and the borrowing needs of the US war machine reflexively feed on one another in the US Treasury market. (Arthur Hayes)
It’s notable that the recent rise in bond yields came as Fitch Ratings downgraded its U.S. credit rating, Treasury upped the size of its bond auctions, analysts began revising upward this year’s federal deficit, and Congress nearly shut down parts of the government over a failure to pass spending bills.
The federal deficit was over 7% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2023, after adjusting for accounting distortions related to student debt. That’s larger than any deficit since 1930 outside of wars and recessions. And this is occurring at a time of low unemployment and strong economic growth. (wsj)
TLDR; It’s looking like a pretty good setup for hard assets such as Bitcoin in what BlackRock CEO Larry Fink describes as a flight to quality.
