Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
Kintsugi ResearchESG 8/2/23
KPMG released a report describing bitcoin’s role in the ESG imperative representing a major narrative shift. Tailwinds We acknowledged the energy industry beginning to embrace bitcoin and ESG validation as a critical step on the path towards more institutional adoption in our B34RM4RK3T memo a year ago. It’s refreshing to see BTC finally taken seriously through an ESG lens:Energy: renewable energy, demand response, recycled heat, and methane reductionSocial: Payments, financial inclusion, Ukr...
Kintsugi ResearchDominance
Whether you were celebrating or grieving this week, there are now undeniable tailwinds for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Bitcoin’s price broke out of a 10 month range and climbed to a new all-time high -- a level it may never revisit (BTC has never returned to a prior election week price).Time will tell if Trump delivers on his crypto friendly campaign promises. But any combination of these will be a major catalyst for future growth:replace Gary Gensler as head of the SECend Operatio...
Kintsugi ResearchPamplona
It’s no surprise when you visit Pamplona in July, and bulls are running in the streets. In markets, it’s not as obvious when bulls will run — and more importantly, when they will stop. This is the follow-up to a piece last month where we shared a capital flows framework that drives the market cycle. In this piece, we will unpack how on chain metrics help us make sense of Bitcoin’s price action.On indicators: The goal isn’t to find a single indicator (or even a dashboard) to make decisions for...
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While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.
PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoin
Visa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costs
Europe approves first spot bitcoin ETF
Gnosis pay supports Visa debit card payments
Crypto bridges refer to methods of moving tokens from one network to another, eg. ethereum to polygon, solana to avalanche, etc.
Bridges can be trustless (non-custodial and managed by code) or trusted (custodial and managed by a third party). In either case, treasuries holding reserves of bridged assets are the modern equivalent of trains carrying payroll shipments in the Wild West.
Both trustless and trusted bridges are vulnerable, trustless bridges via smart contract loopholes or trusted bridges via compromised private keys. Over 50% of all Defi exploits were bridge attacks totaling over $2.5B in lost assets.
While cross chain bridges operate at meaningful scale -- since 2021 there has been between $5 and $15B of wrapped BTC on ethereum and up to an additional $150B+ USD backed stablecoin -- fiat bridges, often referred to as on and off ramps to the crypto ecosystem, will be a key driver of digital assets crypto growing from a $1 trillion to a $10+ trillion asset class in the years ahead.
QT, for real this time.
Earnings recession was already here.
Soft landing headline frequency, contraindicator?
Equity rally concentrated in large growth names.
Stocks are expensive relative to bonds.
Yield curve still flashes warning sign despite long end steepening.
the inversion will end eventually and how it ends will be telling—whether the main cause is falling interest rates or new bets that the economy can withstand higher rates than previously believed.
56% of BTC hasn’t moved in 2 years
29% hasn’t moved in 5 years
More than 1m wallets hold 1+ Bitcoin
miners accumulating again
BTC a beachball underwater?
monument game
fewos drop date (9/25 - 9/29)
dunk genesis forge teased
the met on roblox
zynga launches sugartown
paradigm on open problems of on chain games
While operation choke point 2.0 set the industry back months (years?) in the fallout of the FTX collapse by targeting fiat on and off ramps such as the silvergate exchange network and signature bank, there’s been a lot of news the last two weeks about new players making it easier for fiat to flow in and out of the digital asset ecosystem.
PayPal, which has 400M+ active accounts, launches stablecoin
Visa enables fiat payments for ethereum gas costs
Europe approves first spot bitcoin ETF
Gnosis pay supports Visa debit card payments
Crypto bridges refer to methods of moving tokens from one network to another, eg. ethereum to polygon, solana to avalanche, etc.
Bridges can be trustless (non-custodial and managed by code) or trusted (custodial and managed by a third party). In either case, treasuries holding reserves of bridged assets are the modern equivalent of trains carrying payroll shipments in the Wild West.
Both trustless and trusted bridges are vulnerable, trustless bridges via smart contract loopholes or trusted bridges via compromised private keys. Over 50% of all Defi exploits were bridge attacks totaling over $2.5B in lost assets.
While cross chain bridges operate at meaningful scale -- since 2021 there has been between $5 and $15B of wrapped BTC on ethereum and up to an additional $150B+ USD backed stablecoin -- fiat bridges, often referred to as on and off ramps to the crypto ecosystem, will be a key driver of digital assets crypto growing from a $1 trillion to a $10+ trillion asset class in the years ahead.
QT, for real this time.
Earnings recession was already here.
Soft landing headline frequency, contraindicator?
Equity rally concentrated in large growth names.
Stocks are expensive relative to bonds.
Yield curve still flashes warning sign despite long end steepening.
the inversion will end eventually and how it ends will be telling—whether the main cause is falling interest rates or new bets that the economy can withstand higher rates than previously believed.
56% of BTC hasn’t moved in 2 years
29% hasn’t moved in 5 years
More than 1m wallets hold 1+ Bitcoin
miners accumulating again
BTC a beachball underwater?
monument game
fewos drop date (9/25 - 9/29)
dunk genesis forge teased
the met on roblox
zynga launches sugartown
paradigm on open problems of on chain games
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