This week, BTC opened at $78,370.15, closed at $84,733.07, with a weekly increase of 6.84% and a fluctuation of 14.89%. The trading volume has continued to significantly increase. Since late January, BTC prices have broken through the descending channel upper edge for the first time. Approaching the 200-day moving average.

Trump's "trade war" remains the largest macro financial variable globally this week. His dramatic performance has left the world speechless, with China's countermeasures producing the strongest response.

In the "game of chicken," the first to blink is likely to lose. The trade war against the world has triggered visible or hidden counteraction forces globally, including but not limited to political, business, and capital levels.

Ultimately leading to capital fleeing the U.S. market, resulting in a rare triple kill of "stocks, bonds, and currency" in the U.S.

Faced with a huge financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to step back, either partially suspending the implementation of equal tariffs, or reducing the intensity and supplementing the exemption list of goods, and releasing goodwill towards the biggest opponent, China, on the public opinion front. Since then, the "trade war" has gradually entered phase two, with multiple parties beginning negotiations and compromises.

The risk equity market, which plummeted due to the first phase, has thus welcomed a significant rebound. Perhaps the most terrible phase triggered by the "trade war" has passed, but subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The crisis of the trade war will neither easily pass nor easily lead to new crises. Whether the "trade war" will escalate, whether the Federal Reserve will "timely" cut interest rates, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession have become the main points of observation.

Policies, Macro Finance, and Economic Data Because most countries are powerless to counter the "trade war,", China and the EU's countermeasures have become the main forces resisting U.S. hegemony, with China's sharp countermeasures being the central pillar.

After several rounds of confrontation, the U.S. tariffs on China have increased to 145%, and China's countermeasure tariffs on the U.S. have increased to 125%. This has essentially cut off the possibility of normal trade relations, hence China subsequently announced that it will no longer respond to any further tariff actions by the U.S.

On April 10th, the U.S. suspended most countries' (excluding China) equal tariffs, retaining a 10% "base tariff," and began negotiations. The U.S. stock market therefore surged, with the Nasdaq creating the second-largest single-day gain in history.

China's seemingly passive behavior actually exerts tremendous pressure on the U.S. On April 12th, the U.S. exempted some Chinese goods from the 145% "trade war" tariffs, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.

What really pushed the Trump administration into the "second phase" was not only China's countermeasures but also strong "opposition" from the U.S. political and business sectors and the stock and bond markets.

On Monday, April 7th, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply to record lows, entering or approaching a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX panic index hit a high of 52.33, the third peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

As the "trade war" enters the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out. The S&P 500 VIX index.

At the same time, short-term Treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term Treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.

As the "trade war" enters the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out.

Yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond

After the large-scale sell-off in the U.S. stock market, U.S. Treasury funds also joined the selling action, coupled with funds fleeing the U.S. for Europe and other places, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY also fell sharply.

The "trade war" entering the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out.

U.S. Dollar Index

The "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency forced the Trump administration to release signals of easing the tariff war and announce the exemption list. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also released "dovish" signals. Boston Fed Chairman柯林斯 (Eric S. Rosengren) said in an interview with the Financial Times on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely ready" to use various tools to stabilize the financial market when necessary.

The easing of tariffs and the Fed's verbal market rescue have temporarily eased U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes also ended the turbulent week with gains.

EMC Labs believes that as the U.S. "trade war" enters the second phase, market fears have eased somewhat, and have gradually begun bottoming out, but given the "irrationality" of the Trump administration, as well as the huge risks of U.S. economic recession and inflation (this week's University of Michigan consumer confidence index continued to decline to 50.8), achieving a V-shaped reversal is a low-probability event.

Selling Pressure and Dumping This week, selling pressure on both short and long chains has weakened somewhat, slightly stopping the panic selling that has continued for three consecutive weeks. The total selling scale for the whole week was 1,888,161 coins, including 1,782,637 short positions and 10,553,341 long positions. On the 7th and 9th, short positions suffered significant losses amid global market panic.

The long positions are still playing a stabilizing role, with an increase of nearly 60,000 coins this week, showing that market liquidity is still quite scarce. By the weekend, the short positions were still at an overall 10% floating loss, indicating that the market is still under great pressure.

This week, BTC opened at $78,370.15, closed at $84,733.07, with a weekly increase of 6.84% and a fluctuation of 14.89%. The trading volume has continued to significantly increase. Since late January, BTC prices have broken through the descending channel upper edge for the first time. Approaching the 200-day moving average.

Trump's "trade war" remains the largest macro financial variable globally this week. His dramatic performance has left the world speechless, with China's countermeasures producing the strongest response.

In the "game of chicken," the first to blink is likely to lose. The trade war against the world has triggered visible or hidden counteraction forces globally, including but not limited to political, business, and capital levels.

Ultimately leading to capital fleeing the U.S. market, resulting in a rare triple kill of "stocks, bonds, and currency" in the U.S.

Faced with a huge financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to step back, either partially suspending the implementation of equal tariffs, or reducing the intensity and supplementing the exemption list of goods, and releasing goodwill towards the biggest opponent, China, on the public opinion front. Since then, the "trade war" has gradually entered phase two, with multiple parties beginning negotiations and compromises.

The risk equity market, which plummeted due to the first phase, has thus welcomed a significant rebound. Perhaps the most terrible phase triggered by the "trade war" has passed, but subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The crisis of the trade war will neither easily pass nor easily lead to new crises. Whether the "trade war" will escalate, whether the Federal Reserve will "timely" cut interest rates, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession have become the main points of observation.

Policies, Macro Finance, and Economic Data Because most countries are powerless to counter the "trade war,", China and the EU's countermeasures have become the main forces resisting U.S. hegemony, with China's sharp countermeasures being the central pillar.

After several rounds of confrontation, the U.S. tariffs on China have increased to 145%, and China's countermeasure tariffs on the U.S. have increased to 125%. This has essentially cut off the possibility of normal trade relations, hence China subsequently announced that it will no longer respond to any further tariff actions by the U.S.

On April 10th, the U.S. suspended most countries' (excluding China) equal tariffs, retaining a 10% "base tariff," and began negotiations. The U.S. stock market therefore surged, with the Nasdaq creating the second-largest single-day gain in history.

China's seemingly passive behavior actually exerts tremendous pressure on the U.S. On April 12th, the U.S. exempted some Chinese goods from the 145% "trade war" tariffs, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.

What really pushed the Trump administration into the "second phase" was not only China's countermeasures but also strong "opposition" from the U.S. political and business sectors and the stock and bond markets.

On Monday, April 7th, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply to record lows, entering or approaching a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX panic index hit a high of 52.33, the third peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

As the "trade war" enters the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out. The S&P 500 VIX index.

At the same time, short-term Treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term Treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.

As the "trade war" enters the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out.

Yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond

After the large-scale sell-off in the U.S. stock market, U.S. Treasury funds also joined the selling action, coupled with funds fleeing the U.S. for Europe and other places, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY also fell sharply.

The "trade war" entering the second phase, global risk assets begin bottoming out.

U.S. Dollar Index

The "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency forced the Trump administration to release signals of easing the tariff war and announce the exemption list. At the same time, the Federal Reserve also released "dovish" signals. Boston Fed Chairman柯林斯 (Eric S. Rosengren) said in an interview with the Financial Times on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely ready" to use various tools to stabilize the financial market when necessary.

The easing of tariffs and the Fed's verbal market rescue have temporarily eased U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes also ended the turbulent week with gains.

EMC Labs believes that as the U.S. "trade war" enters the second phase, market fears have eased somewhat, and have gradually begun bottoming out, but given the "irrationality" of the Trump administration, as well as the huge risks of U.S. economic recession and inflation (this week's University of Michigan consumer confidence index continued to decline to 50.8), achieving a V-shaped reversal is a low-probability event.

Selling Pressure and Dumping This week, selling pressure on both short and long chains has weakened somewhat, slightly stopping the panic selling that has continued for three consecutive weeks. The total selling scale for the whole week was 1,888,161 coins, including 1,782,637 short positions and 10,553,341 long positions. On the 7th and 9th, short positions suffered significant losses amid global market panic.

The long positions are still playing a stabilizing role, with an increase of nearly 60,000 coins this week, showing that market liquidity is still quite scarce. By the weekend, the short positions were still at an overall 10% floating loss, indicating that the market is still under great pressure.