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Is vintage vinyl collecting a good mental model for Music NFTs collecting?
As a vinyl collector, I always thought it was.
I collect old vinyl records for its uniqueness, scarcity, rarity, historical value and distinct sound.
I like to find them in stores and never buy them online.
In short, it's a very special experience to me.
An experience I don't get from streaming, mp3s or even from new vinyl editions.
To clarify, I'm a music nerd, collector, fan, and degen.
Like most Saturdays, today I went vinyl shopping in search for first editions of albums I consider gems.
This led me to wonder: is there a correlation between price and value in vinyl collecting?
Can we use this model to think about collecting Music NFTs?
I was lucky enough to find the first edition of "Vasos y Besos," i'm so excited!!
An absolute masterpiece of 80s argentinian rock.
Despite their 80s popularity, they were largely known mainly in Argentina.
I bet there are not a lot of copies of this album.
Maybe a few hundred thousand?
I paid $45.
Average price on discogs is $55.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1983 this album was around $30, according to chatgpt.
The price increased $15 in 40 years for this edition, or around 50%.
∼1.25% ROI per year.
Listen to Vasos y Besos.
What can i say?
This is one of the most important records in the history of mankind by one of the greatest masters of the 20th century.
I have no words to explain my excitement!!!
It still has the original shrink wrap and sticker!!
And the inner sleeves are just incredible.
I'm beyond lucky that i found this first edition!
It prolly sold millions of copies.
I paid $50.
Average price on discogs is $50.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1982 this album was around $25, according to chatgpt. Let's say $30 becasue it's a double album?
The price increased $20 in 41 years for this edition, or around 66%.
∼ 1.63% ROI per year.
Listen to 1999.
This album is a little more obscure, and one of the true classics of symphonic rock.
It's one of the albums I listened to the most when i was a teenager. I still remember most lyrics.
This gem is from 1971 and, if you look closely, you'll see that it still has the shrink wrap, too.
But there's something even more special. This vinyl has never been opened!!!
It's sealed since 1971, can you believe it!!
I think I will never open it, tbh, or maybe in like 20-30 years.
I paid $20.
Average price on discogs is $15.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1971 this album was around $59, according to chatgpt.
The price went down ∼ 66%.
∼ (-) 1.27% ROI per year.
Listen to Nursey Cryme.
Vintage vinyl collecting is similar to collecting Music NFTs open editions
I realized that most vintage vinyl editions were produced in large quantities, typically ranging from thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands, or millions of units.
That's why I think they're similar to Music NFTs open editions, not 1/1s or limited.
Price and value are uncorrelated when collecting vintage vinyl editions
I consider each of the editions mentioned above incredibly valuable. I wouldn't sell them even for triple the price.
Even with the potential for profit, I'd rather keep my collection than use the earnings to buy more vintage editions.
They're just too unique for me.
Also, I wouldn't ever buy the new vinyl editions, which often are more expensive. I consider them way less valuable.
The value I get from collecting and holding these vinyl records remains uncorrelated with their price or ROI.
If vintage vinyl collecting can be used as a mental model for Music NFTs collecting, I would argue that:
Music NFTs open editions price and value might be uncorrelated over time.
Even if we adore our songs and artists, even if our open editions are unique and historic, and even if the experience itself could be unparalleled...
They might not accrue much in price over the years.
In fact, in some cases, they might go down in price.
While I'm not entirely certain I'll share some ideas regardless:
Degens?
Can they be attractive to degen collectors?
Probably not because they care for price only.
Music Nerds?
Can they be attractive to music nerd collectors?
Maybe, given their focus on value and experience.
Fans?
Can they be attractive to fans?
If fans can buy the Music NFTs at any time for roughly the same price, why would they buy an open edition now instead of any other time in the future, considering they can still listen for free?
Me?
Are they attractive to me, a music nerd, collector, fan and degen?
I've collected so many in 2023 that I ended up thinking, how many more should I collect?
With over a thousand in my collection, I wonder: should I aim for several thousand? Do they feel as unique as my vinyl records?
The answer is no, I barely collect open editions these days.
Only some collections and artists i'm really really really interested in or want to support.
Hey, in the end, I know I will still be able to buy them later for roughly the same price, and the experience of minting doesn't feel that unique to me anymore.
I'm not factoring in crypto bull markets or the expectation for potential airdrops in this post
All of the above might be 100% incorrect, lol. We'll realize sooner than later 👀.
This post is a thought exercise
I might have a different opinion next week, later in the year or yesterday. I like to have a flexible mind.
Music NFTs price and value broadly
This post doesn’t try to analyze how Music NFTs should be priced currently and in the future (I'll keep that for a different post).
If you like this article as a thought excercise, you can help me out think through the topic by responding to this post on Twitter <3.
Is vintage vinyl collecting a good mental model for Music NFTs collecting?
As a vinyl collector, I always thought it was.
I collect old vinyl records for its uniqueness, scarcity, rarity, historical value and distinct sound.
I like to find them in stores and never buy them online.
In short, it's a very special experience to me.
An experience I don't get from streaming, mp3s or even from new vinyl editions.
To clarify, I'm a music nerd, collector, fan, and degen.
Like most Saturdays, today I went vinyl shopping in search for first editions of albums I consider gems.
This led me to wonder: is there a correlation between price and value in vinyl collecting?
Can we use this model to think about collecting Music NFTs?
I was lucky enough to find the first edition of "Vasos y Besos," i'm so excited!!
An absolute masterpiece of 80s argentinian rock.
Despite their 80s popularity, they were largely known mainly in Argentina.
I bet there are not a lot of copies of this album.
Maybe a few hundred thousand?
I paid $45.
Average price on discogs is $55.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1983 this album was around $30, according to chatgpt.
The price increased $15 in 40 years for this edition, or around 50%.
∼1.25% ROI per year.
Listen to Vasos y Besos.
What can i say?
This is one of the most important records in the history of mankind by one of the greatest masters of the 20th century.
I have no words to explain my excitement!!!
It still has the original shrink wrap and sticker!!
And the inner sleeves are just incredible.
I'm beyond lucky that i found this first edition!
It prolly sold millions of copies.
I paid $50.
Average price on discogs is $50.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1982 this album was around $25, according to chatgpt. Let's say $30 becasue it's a double album?
The price increased $20 in 41 years for this edition, or around 66%.
∼ 1.63% ROI per year.
Listen to 1999.
This album is a little more obscure, and one of the true classics of symphonic rock.
It's one of the albums I listened to the most when i was a teenager. I still remember most lyrics.
This gem is from 1971 and, if you look closely, you'll see that it still has the shrink wrap, too.
But there's something even more special. This vinyl has never been opened!!!
It's sealed since 1971, can you believe it!!
I think I will never open it, tbh, or maybe in like 20-30 years.
I paid $20.
Average price on discogs is $15.
Adjusted by inflation, in 1971 this album was around $59, according to chatgpt.
The price went down ∼ 66%.
∼ (-) 1.27% ROI per year.
Listen to Nursey Cryme.
Vintage vinyl collecting is similar to collecting Music NFTs open editions
I realized that most vintage vinyl editions were produced in large quantities, typically ranging from thousands to potentially hundreds of thousands, or millions of units.
That's why I think they're similar to Music NFTs open editions, not 1/1s or limited.
Price and value are uncorrelated when collecting vintage vinyl editions
I consider each of the editions mentioned above incredibly valuable. I wouldn't sell them even for triple the price.
Even with the potential for profit, I'd rather keep my collection than use the earnings to buy more vintage editions.
They're just too unique for me.
Also, I wouldn't ever buy the new vinyl editions, which often are more expensive. I consider them way less valuable.
The value I get from collecting and holding these vinyl records remains uncorrelated with their price or ROI.
If vintage vinyl collecting can be used as a mental model for Music NFTs collecting, I would argue that:
Music NFTs open editions price and value might be uncorrelated over time.
Even if we adore our songs and artists, even if our open editions are unique and historic, and even if the experience itself could be unparalleled...
They might not accrue much in price over the years.
In fact, in some cases, they might go down in price.
While I'm not entirely certain I'll share some ideas regardless:
Degens?
Can they be attractive to degen collectors?
Probably not because they care for price only.
Music Nerds?
Can they be attractive to music nerd collectors?
Maybe, given their focus on value and experience.
Fans?
Can they be attractive to fans?
If fans can buy the Music NFTs at any time for roughly the same price, why would they buy an open edition now instead of any other time in the future, considering they can still listen for free?
Me?
Are they attractive to me, a music nerd, collector, fan and degen?
I've collected so many in 2023 that I ended up thinking, how many more should I collect?
With over a thousand in my collection, I wonder: should I aim for several thousand? Do they feel as unique as my vinyl records?
The answer is no, I barely collect open editions these days.
Only some collections and artists i'm really really really interested in or want to support.
Hey, in the end, I know I will still be able to buy them later for roughly the same price, and the experience of minting doesn't feel that unique to me anymore.
I'm not factoring in crypto bull markets or the expectation for potential airdrops in this post
All of the above might be 100% incorrect, lol. We'll realize sooner than later 👀.
This post is a thought exercise
I might have a different opinion next week, later in the year or yesterday. I like to have a flexible mind.
Music NFTs price and value broadly
This post doesn’t try to analyze how Music NFTs should be priced currently and in the future (I'll keep that for a different post).
If you like this article as a thought excercise, you can help me out think through the topic by responding to this post on Twitter <3.
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