ShushantUnlocking the Future: How Embedded Wallets Unleash The Onchain Economy
The long overdue refresh to new user onboarding
Shushant[Dev] What is EVM version?
TLDR:evm version specifies what opcodes are allowed to be used by specifiying the hardfork name.For example, selecting shanghai as the evm version wi...
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ShushantUnlocking the Future: How Embedded Wallets Unleash The Onchain Economy
The long overdue refresh to new user onboarding
Shushant[Dev] What is EVM version?
TLDR:evm version specifies what opcodes are allowed to be used by specifiying the hardfork name.For example, selecting shanghai as the evm version wi...
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The news landscape has drastically changed over the past 20 years.
Before television, people relied on newspapers to be informed about the world
Then, news channels dominated due to the ability to provide real time news reporting
However, as the demand for real time news scaled, social media networks provide more accessible news reporting, with even faster real time updates about events happening across the world
From here, the future of news consumption will transition to build off of real time prediction markets, such as polymarket
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to say informed and profit from your knowledge by betting on future events across various topics.
Prediction markets provide truth faster than news or twitter due to how people are financially incentivized to bet on information they know about a market which may not be priced in yet
This results in extremely fast, unbiased news reporting for anyone browsing the website
This revolutionary tech is already being used within bloomberg terminal and quoted by grok to provide accurate real time data about events
A market is created by Polymarket. Example: "Who will win the 2024 presidential election"
People can buy and sell shares of an outcome between $0-$1 (Eg: Donald Trump wins). The price is based on the supply and demand of the market
When the event resolves, the winner(s) of the market can redeem each winning outcome they own for $1/share
News from the media is often biased, where certain stories are amplified and others are downplayed or omitted based on the media company's agenda
By attaching a financial outcome to a news event, people can put money on what they believe or know
Advanced actors who have insider or early information have financial incentive to bet on that information, which updates the market outcomes to better reflect the actual probabilities of each outcome occurring, based on ALL information available. Example:
Market called "Will Taylor Swift drop a single today" is created
Advanced user goes to Taylor Swifts website, and sees that it was recently updated to market the new single that launched, even though no information has been posted to social media or music platforms
Recognizing that the Swiftie team is now preparing to release the single, the user can bet "YES" on the market
For the average user, they see that the market for Taylor Swift dropping a single has spiked in probability and can reasonably assume that Taylor Swift is most likely dropping a single today
Having financial incentive to trade on news you know means prediction markets better forecast events compared to news organizations.
For the 2024 presidential election, polymarket had effectively priced in the outcome of the election prior to 11 pm on election day (with outcomes moving towards the singularity since 6pm)
In comparison, AP news was not able to call the election until 10:34 am the next day
The resiliency of a prediction platform relies on the reliability on the platform to resolve the correct outcome, and create a variety of controversial markets
When done in a centralized manner, the platform is more susceptible to censorship from a government from publishing a market which may portray them in a bad light
When resolving markets, subjective resolutions are at the mercy of the company to decide. When decentralizing the resolution process, outcomes can be decided by a broad "What does the average person think"
An open platform for market creation allows for anyone to create markets on any number of controversial issues they want the truth on. Examples
Chance of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan
Who will be listed in the Epstein files
Chance of tariffs being implemented
Financial markets often indicate the macro state of the world with all pieces of information "priced in"
By harnessing the same incentive structure and applying it to predictions, we get accurate, real time forecasting of news in an easily digestible way
By building this on blockchain infrastructure, we get unbiased, un-censorable markets in which we can base as the true source of truth
Subscribe for more bullposting
The news landscape has drastically changed over the past 20 years.
Before television, people relied on newspapers to be informed about the world
Then, news channels dominated due to the ability to provide real time news reporting
However, as the demand for real time news scaled, social media networks provide more accessible news reporting, with even faster real time updates about events happening across the world
From here, the future of news consumption will transition to build off of real time prediction markets, such as polymarket
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to say informed and profit from your knowledge by betting on future events across various topics.
Prediction markets provide truth faster than news or twitter due to how people are financially incentivized to bet on information they know about a market which may not be priced in yet
This results in extremely fast, unbiased news reporting for anyone browsing the website
This revolutionary tech is already being used within bloomberg terminal and quoted by grok to provide accurate real time data about events
A market is created by Polymarket. Example: "Who will win the 2024 presidential election"
People can buy and sell shares of an outcome between $0-$1 (Eg: Donald Trump wins). The price is based on the supply and demand of the market
When the event resolves, the winner(s) of the market can redeem each winning outcome they own for $1/share
News from the media is often biased, where certain stories are amplified and others are downplayed or omitted based on the media company's agenda
By attaching a financial outcome to a news event, people can put money on what they believe or know
Advanced actors who have insider or early information have financial incentive to bet on that information, which updates the market outcomes to better reflect the actual probabilities of each outcome occurring, based on ALL information available. Example:
Market called "Will Taylor Swift drop a single today" is created
Advanced user goes to Taylor Swifts website, and sees that it was recently updated to market the new single that launched, even though no information has been posted to social media or music platforms
Recognizing that the Swiftie team is now preparing to release the single, the user can bet "YES" on the market
For the average user, they see that the market for Taylor Swift dropping a single has spiked in probability and can reasonably assume that Taylor Swift is most likely dropping a single today
Having financial incentive to trade on news you know means prediction markets better forecast events compared to news organizations.
For the 2024 presidential election, polymarket had effectively priced in the outcome of the election prior to 11 pm on election day (with outcomes moving towards the singularity since 6pm)
In comparison, AP news was not able to call the election until 10:34 am the next day
The resiliency of a prediction platform relies on the reliability on the platform to resolve the correct outcome, and create a variety of controversial markets
When done in a centralized manner, the platform is more susceptible to censorship from a government from publishing a market which may portray them in a bad light
When resolving markets, subjective resolutions are at the mercy of the company to decide. When decentralizing the resolution process, outcomes can be decided by a broad "What does the average person think"
An open platform for market creation allows for anyone to create markets on any number of controversial issues they want the truth on. Examples
Chance of a ceasefire between India and Pakistan
Who will be listed in the Epstein files
Chance of tariffs being implemented
Financial markets often indicate the macro state of the world with all pieces of information "priced in"
By harnessing the same incentive structure and applying it to predictions, we get accurate, real time forecasting of news in an easily digestible way
By building this on blockchain infrastructure, we get unbiased, un-censorable markets in which we can base as the true source of truth
Subscribe for more bullposting
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