A single spark can start a prairie fire.
SparkDAOSparkDAO Industry observation丨Can the insurance industry in the Web3.0 era really be decentralized?
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioDeFi's world is on the rise, and the insurance industry emerged as a major track.Of course, as the underlying infrastructure behind DeFi, there are not many major projects right now.In DeFi's competitive landscape, it...
SparkDAOSparkDAO trend research丨Web3 and DeFi: the perfect example of technology changing paradigm
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioWeb3 and DeFi are often described as having the potential to be disruptive and decentralized, but the reality is complex. In the case of the Meta Universe, users often wonder how to draw the line between Web3 and non web3 proje...
SparkDAOSparkDAO Industry observation | 2022 encryption market brutal start, can turn?
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioIn the beginning of 2021, the cryptocurrency market was driven by institutional adoption and loose macroeconomic trends.Today, however, a year later, in different macro environments, January 2022 has begun to move in the opposi...
SparkDAO是一支专注在数字加密领域的投研小組，成员分布在全球。我们热衷于挖掘数字加密领域的底层逻辑和前沿赛道。欢迎关注我们的Twitter：SparkDAO_io
历经了长达两个月超级横盘，市场的交易量、波动率、情绪都陷入冰点，如果从比特币的视角来看，从6月至今甚至都未有明确的趋势出现，依旧在一个区间中震荡（下图）。
并且从9月中旬至今一个多月里，上下涨跌幅仅有10%，是典型的低波动率猴市。历史上比较少见，2011年至今曾发生过8次（不包括当前震荡），单看2017年之后的震荡也有4次（下图），这四次中仅有18年的极端震荡是大跌。这种行情下几乎所有策略都会陷入亏损。但震荡结束后都会出现至少一个月以上的巨大趋势行情。
从8月的美联储强硬鹰派表态之后，市场不得不从年中的降息预期中醒悟，重新开启下跌趋势，期间由于英国日本等国家相继出现金融危机，政府不得不下场救市，引发市场担忧，从而使非美资金加速回流美国，进一步助推美元的上涨。但美联储官员在10月月末放出偏鸽的话语，引发了市场对未来两个月加息放缓预期的炒作，美股也从即将跌破前低变为回踩前低确认底部，如果接下来的CPI、就业数据好转，推测有可能会迎来一波短中线的反弹，在美股历来的熊市中，反弹超过10%的情况很常见，但仅仅是反弹，并不太可能形成反转，缓解通胀是个长期过程，未来还需要美国经济进入衰退等，需耐心等待。
基于宏观分析可以得到一个整体市场的大趋势，币圈因为美元定价的原因，也需要遵循这个趋势，当下的趋势是：长期熊市，随着底部震荡逐渐呈现企稳的状态，有可能出现一次短中线的上涨趋势。并且由于市场热度切换，目前ETH更有可能获得更多上涨趋势，例如当前上涨中，比特币市场持仓不仅没有增加反而在减少，这个可以理解为市场并不看好本次上涨，纷纷在减仓观望。一般一波完美的趋势需要价格、交易量、持仓匹配，即上涨中三者要一起上涨，如下图中以太坊的样子。因此比特币依旧疲软，但以太坊在盘面数据上可以确认是一波明显的上涨趋势。
*此处表达的观点和意见作者的观点和意见，不一定反映SparkDAO的观点。每一项投资和交易都涉及风险，在做出决策時，你应该有自己的判断！
SparkDAO是一支专注在数字加密领域的投研小組，成员分布在全球。我们热衷于挖掘数字加密领域的底层逻辑和前沿赛道。欢迎关注我们的Twitter：SparkDAO_io
历经了长达两个月超级横盘，市场的交易量、波动率、情绪都陷入冰点，如果从比特币的视角来看，从6月至今甚至都未有明确的趋势出现，依旧在一个区间中震荡（下图）。
并且从9月中旬至今一个多月里，上下涨跌幅仅有10%，是典型的低波动率猴市。历史上比较少见，2011年至今曾发生过8次（不包括当前震荡），单看2017年之后的震荡也有4次（下图），这四次中仅有18年的极端震荡是大跌。这种行情下几乎所有策略都会陷入亏损。但震荡结束后都会出现至少一个月以上的巨大趋势行情。
从8月的美联储强硬鹰派表态之后，市场不得不从年中的降息预期中醒悟，重新开启下跌趋势，期间由于英国日本等国家相继出现金融危机，政府不得不下场救市，引发市场担忧，从而使非美资金加速回流美国，进一步助推美元的上涨。但美联储官员在10月月末放出偏鸽的话语，引发了市场对未来两个月加息放缓预期的炒作，美股也从即将跌破前低变为回踩前低确认底部，如果接下来的CPI、就业数据好转，推测有可能会迎来一波短中线的反弹，在美股历来的熊市中，反弹超过10%的情况很常见，但仅仅是反弹，并不太可能形成反转，缓解通胀是个长期过程，未来还需要美国经济进入衰退等，需耐心等待。
基于宏观分析可以得到一个整体市场的大趋势，币圈因为美元定价的原因，也需要遵循这个趋势，当下的趋势是：长期熊市，随着底部震荡逐渐呈现企稳的状态，有可能出现一次短中线的上涨趋势。并且由于市场热度切换，目前ETH更有可能获得更多上涨趋势，例如当前上涨中，比特币市场持仓不仅没有增加反而在减少，这个可以理解为市场并不看好本次上涨，纷纷在减仓观望。一般一波完美的趋势需要价格、交易量、持仓匹配，即上涨中三者要一起上涨，如下图中以太坊的样子。因此比特币依旧疲软，但以太坊在盘面数据上可以确认是一波明显的上涨趋势。
*此处表达的观点和意见作者的观点和意见，不一定反映SparkDAO的观点。每一项投资和交易都涉及风险，在做出决策時，你应该有自己的判断！
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A single spark can start a prairie fire.
SparkDAOSparkDAO Industry observation丨Can the insurance industry in the Web3.0 era really be decentralized?
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioDeFi's world is on the rise, and the insurance industry emerged as a major track.Of course, as the underlying infrastructure behind DeFi, there are not many major projects right now.In DeFi's competitive landscape, it...
SparkDAOSparkDAO trend research丨Web3 and DeFi: the perfect example of technology changing paradigm
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioWeb3 and DeFi are often described as having the potential to be disruptive and decentralized, but the reality is complex. In the case of the Meta Universe, users often wonder how to draw the line between Web3 and non web3 proje...
SparkDAOSparkDAO Industry observation | 2022 encryption market brutal start, can turn?
SparkDAO is an investment research group focusing on the field of digital encryption, with members distributed all over the world. We are keen to explore the underlying logic and cutting-edge tracks in the field of digital encryption. Welcome to our Twitter: sparkdao_ioIn the beginning of 2021, the cryptocurrency market was driven by institutional adoption and loose macroeconomic trends.Today, however, a year later, in different macro environments, January 2022 has begun to move in the opposi...
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