"While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle," the White House said in a recent blog post.

Big picture: Don't expect the NBER to settle the back-and-forth any time soon. It waited until June 2020 to announce that the coronavirus-induced recession started the previous February — and that was faster than usual. That means the recession debate is likely to persist for many months, no matter what's revealed later this week.

In the meantime, business leaders are displaying increasing alarm. The latest Business Conditions Survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday found that 43% of respondents think a recession in the next 12 months is more likely than not. Just 13% held this position back in April.

"While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle," the White House said in a recent blog post.

Big picture: Don't expect the NBER to settle the back-and-forth any time soon. It waited until June 2020 to announce that the coronavirus-induced recession started the previous February — and that was faster than usual. That means the recession debate is likely to persist for many months, no matter what's revealed later this week.

In the meantime, business leaders are displaying increasing alarm. The latest Business Conditions Survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday found that 43% of respondents think a recession in the next 12 months is more likely than not. Just 13% held this position back in April.