SwingTrading with CyclesCycles Analysis 101
Overview I use cycles as a way to better quantify trend analysis and turn it into actionable insights. When I look at cycles I focus 100% on price action. Cycles help to explain the price action, not the other way around. I don’t believe there is any outside force controlling the price action to make it conform to certain timing bands as other analysts seem to think. This is why I don’t rely on knowing when an asset is “supposed” to have a certain cycle low. To identify those turning points I...
SwingTrading with CyclesWeekly SPX Cycle Report
TL;DR The market reacted negatively to the CPI release on Tuesday (Sept 13), causing a massive bearish daily swing high which creates a bearish weekly swing high in the process. This is further evidence that we are in the declining phase of the weekly cycle and also the declining phase of the long term (3 year) cycle. The Daily Cycle Friday was day 8 of the daily cycle and we made a new low below the day 54 low which we are marking as our previous DCL. We also have a big swing high on day 4 d...
SwingTrading with CyclesWeekly SPX Cycles Report
Overview; TLDR If you haven’t already checked it out, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. This first week of August was just consolidation after the big green weekly candle from the previous week. We did manage to make a new high on the weekly chart but then pulled back on Friday after the Jobs Report. This consolidation makes sense since the next CPI report is due Wednesday (8/10) morning. The market is l...
Price action analysis of crypto, equities and commodities. I attempt to time the market using price action based cycles
SwingTrading with CyclesCycles Analysis 101
Overview I use cycles as a way to better quantify trend analysis and turn it into actionable insights. When I look at cycles I focus 100% on price action. Cycles help to explain the price action, not the other way around. I don’t believe there is any outside force controlling the price action to make it conform to certain timing bands as other analysts seem to think. This is why I don’t rely on knowing when an asset is “supposed” to have a certain cycle low. To identify those turning points I...
SwingTrading with CyclesWeekly SPX Cycle Report
TL;DR The market reacted negatively to the CPI release on Tuesday (Sept 13), causing a massive bearish daily swing high which creates a bearish weekly swing high in the process. This is further evidence that we are in the declining phase of the weekly cycle and also the declining phase of the long term (3 year) cycle. The Daily Cycle Friday was day 8 of the daily cycle and we made a new low below the day 54 low which we are marking as our previous DCL. We also have a big swing high on day 4 d...
SwingTrading with CyclesWeekly SPX Cycles Report
Overview; TLDR If you haven’t already checked it out, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. This first week of August was just consolidation after the big green weekly candle from the previous week. We did manage to make a new high on the weekly chart but then pulled back on Friday after the Jobs Report. This consolidation makes sense since the next CPI report is due Wednesday (8/10) morning. The market is l...
Price action analysis of crypto, equities and commodities. I attempt to time the market using price action based cycles
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TL;DR
SPX is still in weekly cycle decline with week 17 starting on Monday (Oct 10). Last week was the first green week in the last 4 but the bearish reaction to the jobs report on Friday created a sizable upper wick on the weekly candle which means we will start trading as an inside week. Inside candles generally mean a lot of chop and “trappy” moves where price does not follow through in either direction. We have the CPI release on Oct 13 so we may have this choppy action until the catalyst is out of the way.
The Daily Cycle
Friday was day 23 of the daily cycle and the daily cycle high was on day 4.. There is still a swing low in place from day 18 but that may not hold for much longer. This week we have the CPI release coming up on Thursday at 8:30am EST. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market mostly consolidate until that number is released since it’s the most important data point this month as it will give the market clues about the next Fed rate hike in November. It’s also important to note that the downside move on Friday caused the weekly candle to develop a large upper wick which means next week will open as an inside week. More detail on that below.
Current Count: Day 23
Previous Daily Cycle Low: Day 54 (9/6/22)
Current DCH: Day 4 (Sept 12)
The Weekly Cycle
This past week was week 16 and we were able to make a high above the high from week 15 earlier in the week by getting above 3737. This means at that time, we had a weekly swing low in place while price remained above 3737. This is always a precarious situation where you’re early in the week because things can change as more daily action plays out which is exactly what happened in this case. The big pullback following the jobs number took price below 3737 and we’re now going to enter choppy action with the new week starting.
The other important context is we are still in the declining phase of the weekly cycle though it’s already relatively late since Monday (Oct 10) will start week 17. Since the rally for this weekly cycle lasted 9 weeks, we would expect the decline to last 9 week or more to give us a left translated weekly cycle. That would suggest we have at least another 2 weeks before we get this weekly cycle low. Also keep in mind that if we are in the declining phase of the 3 year cycle as we suspect, we will get another left translated weekly cycle after this one. That means we could see a more convincing rally that lasts even a few months before rolling over and moving into the final 3 year cycle low. Very important next few weeks developing here and we will watch the monthly chart for clues.
As discussed in this video, this coming week will be an inside week until we get outside of the range of week 16 which is everything between 3807 and 3605. That’s obviously a massive zone which is why trading in the early part of the week will likely be full of annoying rangebound action until we get a more decisive resolution with the CPI release.
Current Week: 16
Previous Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Low: Week 16 (6/17/22)
Current ICH: Week 9 (8/15)
The Long Term (3 Year) Cycle
Last week was the start of a new monthly and quarterly candle as we began Q4 trading. We have 3 red down (lower low) quarterly candles in a row for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis between 2007 and 2009 and as this quarterly candle continues to develop we will see if it also ends red. As we can see from the 2000 bubble, in that ensuing decline we had a few periods where we had a green quarter or two which just served as a lower high within the long term down trend that saw price fall for almost 3 years before hitting a bottom and starting a new long term cycle advance. There’s no way to know what kind of decline we will get but it’s important to remain vigilant and aware of the different possible scenarios. One big thing we will watch for here is if this monthly candle can remain green. We know we opened the month at 3609.78 so if we drop below this level that turns the monthly candle green and it’s a strong signal that the monthly downtrend is about to make a new lower low.
Current Month: 31
Current Long Term Cycle High (LTH): Month 22 (Jan. 2022)
Approximate Cycle Low Timing: March 2023
Conclusion
The market is once again waiting on more inflation data and the CPI release on Thursday morning will delivery the volatility we expect. Patience is important in the early part of the week as the market will likely not commit to a direction until after the CPI catalyst.
TL;DR
SPX is still in weekly cycle decline with week 17 starting on Monday (Oct 10). Last week was the first green week in the last 4 but the bearish reaction to the jobs report on Friday created a sizable upper wick on the weekly candle which means we will start trading as an inside week. Inside candles generally mean a lot of chop and “trappy” moves where price does not follow through in either direction. We have the CPI release on Oct 13 so we may have this choppy action until the catalyst is out of the way.
The Daily Cycle
Friday was day 23 of the daily cycle and the daily cycle high was on day 4.. There is still a swing low in place from day 18 but that may not hold for much longer. This week we have the CPI release coming up on Thursday at 8:30am EST. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the market mostly consolidate until that number is released since it’s the most important data point this month as it will give the market clues about the next Fed rate hike in November. It’s also important to note that the downside move on Friday caused the weekly candle to develop a large upper wick which means next week will open as an inside week. More detail on that below.
Current Count: Day 23
Previous Daily Cycle Low: Day 54 (9/6/22)
Current DCH: Day 4 (Sept 12)
The Weekly Cycle
This past week was week 16 and we were able to make a high above the high from week 15 earlier in the week by getting above 3737. This means at that time, we had a weekly swing low in place while price remained above 3737. This is always a precarious situation where you’re early in the week because things can change as more daily action plays out which is exactly what happened in this case. The big pullback following the jobs number took price below 3737 and we’re now going to enter choppy action with the new week starting.
The other important context is we are still in the declining phase of the weekly cycle though it’s already relatively late since Monday (Oct 10) will start week 17. Since the rally for this weekly cycle lasted 9 weeks, we would expect the decline to last 9 week or more to give us a left translated weekly cycle. That would suggest we have at least another 2 weeks before we get this weekly cycle low. Also keep in mind that if we are in the declining phase of the 3 year cycle as we suspect, we will get another left translated weekly cycle after this one. That means we could see a more convincing rally that lasts even a few months before rolling over and moving into the final 3 year cycle low. Very important next few weeks developing here and we will watch the monthly chart for clues.
As discussed in this video, this coming week will be an inside week until we get outside of the range of week 16 which is everything between 3807 and 3605. That’s obviously a massive zone which is why trading in the early part of the week will likely be full of annoying rangebound action until we get a more decisive resolution with the CPI release.
Current Week: 16
Previous Intermediate/Weekly Cycle Low: Week 16 (6/17/22)
Current ICH: Week 9 (8/15)
The Long Term (3 Year) Cycle
Last week was the start of a new monthly and quarterly candle as we began Q4 trading. We have 3 red down (lower low) quarterly candles in a row for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis between 2007 and 2009 and as this quarterly candle continues to develop we will see if it also ends red. As we can see from the 2000 bubble, in that ensuing decline we had a few periods where we had a green quarter or two which just served as a lower high within the long term down trend that saw price fall for almost 3 years before hitting a bottom and starting a new long term cycle advance. There’s no way to know what kind of decline we will get but it’s important to remain vigilant and aware of the different possible scenarios. One big thing we will watch for here is if this monthly candle can remain green. We know we opened the month at 3609.78 so if we drop below this level that turns the monthly candle green and it’s a strong signal that the monthly downtrend is about to make a new lower low.
Current Month: 31
Current Long Term Cycle High (LTH): Month 22 (Jan. 2022)
Approximate Cycle Low Timing: March 2023
Conclusion
The market is once again waiting on more inflation data and the CPI release on Thursday morning will delivery the volatility we expect. Patience is important in the early part of the week as the market will likely not commit to a direction until after the CPI catalyst.
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