Miners and traders now have two new tools to improve their subnet and trading performance!

• For Miners: Stay up-to-date on miners' performances with our new Miners Tooling Dashboard! Besides live CRPS and leaderboard values, the dashboard also contains the most recent information about Bitcoin price action and volatility.

• For Traders: Powered by the Synth data produced by the subnet's miners, futures leveraged traders can now make more informed decisions about their liquidation risks! This tool is available in our new Liquidation Probabilities insight page.

Data From 2025-04-07 To 2025-04-13

Between April 7 and April 13, Bitcoin opened at approximately $78,300 and closed at around $83,700, marking a significant 6.9% increase over the week. The price exhibited extreme volatility, particularly during the early part of the week following continued uncertainty around the new U.S. tariffs against China announced the previous week, which triggered substantial market fluctuations.

Bitcoin reached its lowest point of approximately $74,500 on April 7, during a volatility spike directly attributed to fears surrounding the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. From this low, the market initiated a strong recovery, reaching a peak of approximately $85,900 on April 13 before moderating slightly to close the week.

The most dramatic price movement occurred on Monday, April 7, when Bitcoin experienced a substantial intraday volatility spike, with the 5-minute rolling volatility reaching nearly 0.9%. Besides this event, this week saw multiple significant spikes in the 5-minute rolling volatility throughout the period. Notable secondary volatility peaks occurred on April 9  and 10,   reaching approximately 0.8% and 0.4% respectively, suggesting persistent market uncertainty as traders continued to digest the implications of the ongoing trade tensions.

By the weekend, although price momentum had turned strongly positive, volatility remained elevated compared to historical weekend patterns, with another distinct spike observable on April 13 as the market approached its weekly high.

Four miners were analyzed this week: the previous week's top performers (Miners 91, 196, and 234) and one new contender (Miner 3). We are going to comment on these miners' performance based on the aggregated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values, with particular attention to their ability to manage the multiple volatility spikes observed throughout the week.

Lower CRPS scores indicate better predictive performance. The data reveals distinct patterns in miner performance throughout the week. All miners struggled significantly during April 7-8, with CRPS values spiking dramatically to around 80,000. This represented the highest CRPS values observed during the week, reflecting the extreme difficulty of generating accurate predictions during this period of unprecedented volatility.

As market conditions began to stabilize mid-week, CRPS values improved substantially across all miners, with values generally trending downward from April 9 through April 13. The improvement was particularly notable from April 11 onward, with CRPS values dropping below 30,000 by April 12-13, indicating significantly enhanced predictive accuracy as miners adapted their models to the evolving market conditions.

A secondary spike in CRPS values occurred around April 10, coinciding with another volatility event, though this impact was less severe than the initial spike. During this second volatility event, Miner 234 demonstrated the poorest adaptation, with CRPS values consistently higher than its peers.

Lower leaderboard scores indicate better performance. The leaderboard scores reflect the exponentially weighted average impact of the CRPS values over the preceding 7 days, with a half-life of 3.5 days. This extended evaluation window reveals interesting patterns in miner performance sustainability.

Miner 3, which was not among the top performers in the previous week, demonstrated remarkable improvement throughout this week. Starting with a relatively high score around 2,500 (indicating initial disadvantage), Miner 3 showed consistent improvement, particularly in the latter half of the week, ultimately achieving the best score of approximately 1,750 by week's end.

In contrast, Miners 91 and 196, which were top performers in the previous week, maintained their strong positions throughout most of this week as well. Both miners started with scores around 1,300-1,400 and continued to improve, ending the week with scores around 1,750, further cementing their positions among the top performers.

Miner 234, despite being a top performer last week, struggled to maintain its competitive edge under the new parameters of the leaderboard scoring system. Its score ultimately settled around 1,830, dropping it out of the top three positions by week's end.

The extended EWMA time window with its 7-day cutoff and 3.5-day half-life appears to be effectively identifying miners with sustained performance excellence, as evidenced by the continued presence of Miners 91 and 196 in the top three, while also allowing for the emergence of new top performers like Miner 3 that demonstrate consistent improvement over time.

• Multiple Volatility Events: Unlike previous weeks where market volatility was primarily triggered by a single major event, this week featured multiple significant volatility spikes throughout the period. Miners that successfully adapted their models to these recurring fluctuations performed best, highlighting the importance of developing predictive frameworks capable of rapidly assimilating new market conditions.

• Leaderboard Stability and Turnover: The new leaderboard parameters (7-day EWMA window with 3.5-day half-life) are clearly rewarding sustained excellence. Two of the previous week's top performers (Miners 91 and 196) maintained their positions, while Miner 3 entered the top three at the expense of Miner 234. This pattern suggests that the Subnet scoring system is effectively balancing continuity with the opportunity for new entrants to rise based on merit.

• Adaptation vs. Consistency: The week's data reinforces that miners need to strike a delicate balance between rapid adaptation to market shocks and maintaining consistent performance over time. With the extended evaluation window, sporadic high-performance periods are insufficient; miners must demonstrate sustained excellence across varying market conditions to secure and maintain top leaderboard positions.

• Model Improvement Imperative: The leaderboard dynamics observed this week underscore the critical importance of continuous model improvement. As the Subnet now rewards quality models that deliver consistent results over extended periods, miners seeking to enter or remain at the top of the leaderboard must invest in developing more sophisticated predictive algorithms capable of handling diverse market scenarios while maintaining reliability across time.

Miners and traders now have two new tools to improve their subnet and trading performance!

• For Miners: Stay up-to-date on miners' performances with our new Miners Tooling Dashboard! Besides live CRPS and leaderboard values, the dashboard also contains the most recent information about Bitcoin price action and volatility.

• For Traders: Powered by the Synth data produced by the subnet's miners, futures leveraged traders can now make more informed decisions about their liquidation risks! This tool is available in our new Liquidation Probabilities insight page.

Data From 2025-04-07 To 2025-04-13

Between April 7 and April 13, Bitcoin opened at approximately $78,300 and closed at around $83,700, marking a significant 6.9% increase over the week. The price exhibited extreme volatility, particularly during the early part of the week following continued uncertainty around the new U.S. tariffs against China announced the previous week, which triggered substantial market fluctuations.

Bitcoin reached its lowest point of approximately $74,500 on April 7, during a volatility spike directly attributed to fears surrounding the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. From this low, the market initiated a strong recovery, reaching a peak of approximately $85,900 on April 13 before moderating slightly to close the week.

The most dramatic price movement occurred on Monday, April 7, when Bitcoin experienced a substantial intraday volatility spike, with the 5-minute rolling volatility reaching nearly 0.9%. Besides this event, this week saw multiple significant spikes in the 5-minute rolling volatility throughout the period. Notable secondary volatility peaks occurred on April 9  and 10,   reaching approximately 0.8% and 0.4% respectively, suggesting persistent market uncertainty as traders continued to digest the implications of the ongoing trade tensions.

By the weekend, although price momentum had turned strongly positive, volatility remained elevated compared to historical weekend patterns, with another distinct spike observable on April 13 as the market approached its weekly high.

Four miners were analyzed this week: the previous week's top performers (Miners 91, 196, and 234) and one new contender (Miner 3). We are going to comment on these miners' performance based on the aggregated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values, with particular attention to their ability to manage the multiple volatility spikes observed throughout the week.

Lower CRPS scores indicate better predictive performance. The data reveals distinct patterns in miner performance throughout the week. All miners struggled significantly during April 7-8, with CRPS values spiking dramatically to around 80,000. This represented the highest CRPS values observed during the week, reflecting the extreme difficulty of generating accurate predictions during this period of unprecedented volatility.

As market conditions began to stabilize mid-week, CRPS values improved substantially across all miners, with values generally trending downward from April 9 through April 13. The improvement was particularly notable from April 11 onward, with CRPS values dropping below 30,000 by April 12-13, indicating significantly enhanced predictive accuracy as miners adapted their models to the evolving market conditions.

A secondary spike in CRPS values occurred around April 10, coinciding with another volatility event, though this impact was less severe than the initial spike. During this second volatility event, Miner 234 demonstrated the poorest adaptation, with CRPS values consistently higher than its peers.

Lower leaderboard scores indicate better performance. The leaderboard scores reflect the exponentially weighted average impact of the CRPS values over the preceding 7 days, with a half-life of 3.5 days. This extended evaluation window reveals interesting patterns in miner performance sustainability.

Miner 3, which was not among the top performers in the previous week, demonstrated remarkable improvement throughout this week. Starting with a relatively high score around 2,500 (indicating initial disadvantage), Miner 3 showed consistent improvement, particularly in the latter half of the week, ultimately achieving the best score of approximately 1,750 by week's end.

In contrast, Miners 91 and 196, which were top performers in the previous week, maintained their strong positions throughout most of this week as well. Both miners started with scores around 1,300-1,400 and continued to improve, ending the week with scores around 1,750, further cementing their positions among the top performers.

Miner 234, despite being a top performer last week, struggled to maintain its competitive edge under the new parameters of the leaderboard scoring system. Its score ultimately settled around 1,830, dropping it out of the top three positions by week's end.

The extended EWMA time window with its 7-day cutoff and 3.5-day half-life appears to be effectively identifying miners with sustained performance excellence, as evidenced by the continued presence of Miners 91 and 196 in the top three, while also allowing for the emergence of new top performers like Miner 3 that demonstrate consistent improvement over time.

• Multiple Volatility Events: Unlike previous weeks where market volatility was primarily triggered by a single major event, this week featured multiple significant volatility spikes throughout the period. Miners that successfully adapted their models to these recurring fluctuations performed best, highlighting the importance of developing predictive frameworks capable of rapidly assimilating new market conditions.

• Leaderboard Stability and Turnover: The new leaderboard parameters (7-day EWMA window with 3.5-day half-life) are clearly rewarding sustained excellence. Two of the previous week's top performers (Miners 91 and 196) maintained their positions, while Miner 3 entered the top three at the expense of Miner 234. This pattern suggests that the Subnet scoring system is effectively balancing continuity with the opportunity for new entrants to rise based on merit.

• Adaptation vs. Consistency: The week's data reinforces that miners need to strike a delicate balance between rapid adaptation to market shocks and maintaining consistent performance over time. With the extended evaluation window, sporadic high-performance periods are insufficient; miners must demonstrate sustained excellence across varying market conditions to secure and maintain top leaderboard positions.

• Model Improvement Imperative: The leaderboard dynamics observed this week underscore the critical importance of continuous model improvement. As the Subnet now rewards quality models that deliver consistent results over extended periods, miners seeking to enter or remain at the top of the leaderboard must invest in developing more sophisticated predictive algorithms capable of handling diverse market scenarios while maintaining reliability across time.