In the early 2000s and 2010s, social media giant Facebook (and, to a lesser extent, Pinterest and Twitter) achieved unprecedented scale and user engagement by leveraging network effects to build addictive content feeds. As the pioneer and first mover, Facebook leveraged its open social graph to cultivate a rich ecosystem of apps like Farmville that drove attention and revenue to the platform. However, once they reached sufficient scale, they closed their graph. Essentially, once Facebook’s network effects reached escape velocity, they bolted the door shut behind them and left a trail of banana skins to make life difficult for future entrants into their market. This is good business strategy, and common in all industries, not just technology. 

TikTok cracked the code with better technology and an innovative content format, but they are the exception and not the rule. Standard social media is already at full saturation, or beyond, but its replacement is likely not another giant, but instead a small army of ephemeral competitors. One way to make this small army greater than the sum of its parts is with an open social graph like Tapestry.

Apps like BeReal, noplace, poparazzi, NGL, Gas, Clubhouse, Houseparty serve niche user needs, get popular quickly, then die down. User tastes are becoming increasingly temperamental; apps can capture lightning in a bottle for a moment, but not sustainably. This is likely the state of affairs for the next generation of social; the incumbency advantage held by the giants is strong. Multiple generations cannot imagine life without Instagram or Facebook. And both platforms have mastered manipulating the endowment effect to secure lock-in on their apps. All of my high school photos are on Facebook; the only thing keeping me on Facebook is my inability to mass download them to my personal computer. And similarly, the network of Instagram makes it hard to leave; I want to know what my friends (and favorite celebrities) are up to.

So, in this era of social in which we have dominant incumbents, perhaps permanence should no longer be the goal. Nikita Bier has become a star by proving his ability to repeatedly make “one-hit wonders.” With an open social graph, the developers who make hit apps can build a following, and when one project starts to dwindle, they will own their audience and be able to port them to the next one. In the next era of social, the developers will be the rockstars.

In the early 2000s and 2010s, social media giant Facebook (and, to a lesser extent, Pinterest and Twitter) achieved unprecedented scale and user engagement by leveraging network effects to build addictive content feeds. As the pioneer and first mover, Facebook leveraged its open social graph to cultivate a rich ecosystem of apps like Farmville that drove attention and revenue to the platform. However, once they reached sufficient scale, they closed their graph. Essentially, once Facebook’s network effects reached escape velocity, they bolted the door shut behind them and left a trail of banana skins to make life difficult for future entrants into their market. This is good business strategy, and common in all industries, not just technology. 

TikTok cracked the code with better technology and an innovative content format, but they are the exception and not the rule. Standard social media is already at full saturation, or beyond, but its replacement is likely not another giant, but instead a small army of ephemeral competitors. One way to make this small army greater than the sum of its parts is with an open social graph like Tapestry.

Apps like BeReal, noplace, poparazzi, NGL, Gas, Clubhouse, Houseparty serve niche user needs, get popular quickly, then die down. User tastes are becoming increasingly temperamental; apps can capture lightning in a bottle for a moment, but not sustainably. This is likely the state of affairs for the next generation of social; the incumbency advantage held by the giants is strong. Multiple generations cannot imagine life without Instagram or Facebook. And both platforms have mastered manipulating the endowment effect to secure lock-in on their apps. All of my high school photos are on Facebook; the only thing keeping me on Facebook is my inability to mass download them to my personal computer. And similarly, the network of Instagram makes it hard to leave; I want to know what my friends (and favorite celebrities) are up to.

So, in this era of social in which we have dominant incumbents, perhaps permanence should no longer be the goal. Nikita Bier has become a star by proving his ability to repeatedly make “one-hit wonders.” With an open social graph, the developers who make hit apps can build a following, and when one project starts to dwindle, they will own their audience and be able to port them to the next one. In the next era of social, the developers will be the rockstars.