🌳 US Factory Activity Contracts for Third Month; Circle Secures First EU Stablecoin License Under MiCA

Macro & TradFi

Federal Reserve (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/us-fed-officials-stressed-patience-rate-cuts-minutes-4455971) officials emphasized the need for "patience" regarding interest rate cuts, as outlined in the minutes from their June 11-12 meeting. With inflation decreasing to below three percent annually and unemployment rates remaining low, the Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of managing inflation and supporting employment. Despite significant progress in controlling inflation, some officials highlighted the importance of maintaining a restrictive policy to further moderate inflation pressures. While the Fed does not foresee inflation reaching its 2 percent target until 2026, futures traders predict a high likelihood of rate cuts beginning by mid-September.

In other news, President Joe Biden (https://www.ft.com/content/dcd8c99f-6d2c-4807-a951-8d532b9f320a) is under increasing pressure to abandon his re-election bid following public calls from Democratic lawmakers and governors' concerns about his candidacy. Congressman Lloyd Doggett urged Biden to step aside to prevent a potential Trump victory, while other lawmakers and donors expressed doubts about Biden's viability following a recent debate performance. A CNN poll revealed Biden's approval rating has plummeted to 36%, with many Democrats believing a new candidate would be more competitive against Trump. Amid these growing concerns, Democratic governors are meeting to discuss Biden's condition and potential alternatives, such as Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer.

In a shortened trading session on Wednesday, US stocks reached new highs with the S&P 500 rising by 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.87%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly dipped by 0.06%. Tesla surged by 6.54% following better-than-expected Q2 delivery and production figures. Market participants now eagerly await the Nonfarm Payrolls report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data, expected tomorrow at 20:30 SGT. The consensus anticipates a 190,000 increase in payrolls, down from the previous month's 272,000.

DeFi & CeFi

   •   Bitwise files amended S-1 form for the ETH ETF

   •   Illinois district judge deems OHM and Klima as commodities

   •   BODEN drops 95% as Biden's odds slim in the presidential election

   •   Crypto is outperforming the internet: Architect Partners

Bitwise (https://www.theblock.co/post/303425/ethereum-etfs-could-come-as-soon-as-next-week-as-bitwise-files-amended-s-1-early) has filed an amended S-1 form for its Ethereum ETF ahead of schedule, suggesting potential readiness for market launch by next week. The SEC's approval of 19b-4 forms for eight Ethereum ETFs in May set the stage, pending final S-1 statements for trading commencement. Analysts anticipate listings by late next week or mid-July, though delays may stem from procedural issues or seasonal SEC slowdowns. Bitwise’s updates, including a waiver of sponsor fees for initial assets up to $500 million, aim to attract investors to these forthcoming ETFs, marking a significant step in expanding cryptocurrency investment avenues.

Meanwhile, in a recent ruling, an Illinois district judge (https://www.theblock.co/post/303435/judge-sides-with-cftc-deems-ohm-and-klima-commodities-in-case-involving-crypto-ponzi-like-scheme) upheld the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) position against Sam Ikkurty and his fund Jafia, LLC, ordering them to pay over $120 million in restitution for running a "Ponzi"-like scheme. The judge, Mary Rowland, also classified cryptocurrencies OHM and Klima as commodities in the court order, aligning them with Bitcoin and Ethereum under the CFTC's jurisdiction. This decision underscores ongoing debates over whether certain digital assets should be treated as securities or commodities, a distinction that affects regulatory oversight by bodies like the CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

🌳 US Factory Activity Contracts for Third Month; Circle Secures First EU Stablecoin License Under MiCA

Macro & TradFi

Federal Reserve (https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/us-fed-officials-stressed-patience-rate-cuts-minutes-4455971) officials emphasized the need for "patience" regarding interest rate cuts, as outlined in the minutes from their June 11-12 meeting. With inflation decreasing to below three percent annually and unemployment rates remaining low, the Fed aims to balance its dual mandate of managing inflation and supporting employment. Despite significant progress in controlling inflation, some officials highlighted the importance of maintaining a restrictive policy to further moderate inflation pressures. While the Fed does not foresee inflation reaching its 2 percent target until 2026, futures traders predict a high likelihood of rate cuts beginning by mid-September.

In other news, President Joe Biden (https://www.ft.com/content/dcd8c99f-6d2c-4807-a951-8d532b9f320a) is under increasing pressure to abandon his re-election bid following public calls from Democratic lawmakers and governors' concerns about his candidacy. Congressman Lloyd Doggett urged Biden to step aside to prevent a potential Trump victory, while other lawmakers and donors expressed doubts about Biden's viability following a recent debate performance. A CNN poll revealed Biden's approval rating has plummeted to 36%, with many Democrats believing a new candidate would be more competitive against Trump. Amid these growing concerns, Democratic governors are meeting to discuss Biden's condition and potential alternatives, such as Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer.

In a shortened trading session on Wednesday, US stocks reached new highs with the S&P 500 rising by 0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.87%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly dipped by 0.06%. Tesla surged by 6.54% following better-than-expected Q2 delivery and production figures. Market participants now eagerly await the Nonfarm Payrolls report, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings data, expected tomorrow at 20:30 SGT. The consensus anticipates a 190,000 increase in payrolls, down from the previous month's 272,000.

DeFi & CeFi

   •   Bitwise files amended S-1 form for the ETH ETF

   •   Illinois district judge deems OHM and Klima as commodities

   •   BODEN drops 95% as Biden's odds slim in the presidential election

   •   Crypto is outperforming the internet: Architect Partners

Bitwise (https://www.theblock.co/post/303425/ethereum-etfs-could-come-as-soon-as-next-week-as-bitwise-files-amended-s-1-early) has filed an amended S-1 form for its Ethereum ETF ahead of schedule, suggesting potential readiness for market launch by next week. The SEC's approval of 19b-4 forms for eight Ethereum ETFs in May set the stage, pending final S-1 statements for trading commencement. Analysts anticipate listings by late next week or mid-July, though delays may stem from procedural issues or seasonal SEC slowdowns. Bitwise’s updates, including a waiver of sponsor fees for initial assets up to $500 million, aim to attract investors to these forthcoming ETFs, marking a significant step in expanding cryptocurrency investment avenues.

Meanwhile, in a recent ruling, an Illinois district judge (https://www.theblock.co/post/303435/judge-sides-with-cftc-deems-ohm-and-klima-commodities-in-case-involving-crypto-ponzi-like-scheme) upheld the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) position against Sam Ikkurty and his fund Jafia, LLC, ordering them to pay over $120 million in restitution for running a "Ponzi"-like scheme. The judge, Mary Rowland, also classified cryptocurrencies OHM and Klima as commodities in the court order, aligning them with Bitcoin and Ethereum under the CFTC's jurisdiction. This decision underscores ongoing debates over whether certain digital assets should be treated as securities or commodities, a distinction that affects regulatory oversight by bodies like the CFTC and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).