Crux:

1. The situation or context

2. The problem statement or frame

3. The variables that govern the situation

4. The complications or complexity as you see it

5. Alternatives that were seriously considered and why they were not chosen

6. A paragraph explaining the range of outcomes

7. A paragraph explaining what you expect to happen and the reasoning and actual probabilities you assign to each projected outcome (The degree of confidence matters, a lot.)

8. The time of day you’re making the decision and how you feel physically and mentally (If you’re tired, for example, write it down.) (Mental State - Energized, Focused, Relaxed, Confident, Tired, Accepting, Accomodating, Anxious, Resigned, Frustrated, Angry)

Other critical segments:

• What’s the primary thesis

• What is the expected outcome(s)

• What are the second and third-order consequences

• What is the worst-case scenario and why that’s ok

• What is the potential upside beyond core thesis

• What emotions am I experiencing

• What is the opportunity cost (by doing this what am I not doing)

• What unique advantages or insights do I have in this situation

• Who is the best person to make this decision

• What does this look like in 5 weeks, 5 months, 5 years?