What do you value today?
Family, relationships, A cat named Jim. Maybe it’s not people/ pets though. Maybe it’s freedom, independence, or worldly experiences. Maybe it’s your health and wellness. Maybe it’s Power, Fame, Success. My point being, we place value on a number of different things in our life today.
What does the “world” value today?
A hybrid of the things above potentially, but also the value of the USD.
There is a colloquial saying, “Cash is King,” meaning cash is more valuable than any other form of investment tools. Whether you agree with this sentiment or not, how did “cash” become so valuable?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash-is-king.asp
Well I’ll give you a pencil and napkin summary here.
First it started during the Hunter Age, when people traded crops and cattle. Then, people started going to war and wealth got a bad rep. The Warrior Age created value for the king and if you survived, receiving land was most valuable. People then began forming modern day cities. Useful and decorative crafts became valuable. As cities started to change the landscape, the idea to explore far away lands became a thing so exotic goods became valuable. Craftsmen kept perfecting their skills at home and afar and the introduction of machinery allowed for things to be mass produced so value was created significantly faster. Around this same time, transportation and the demand for fuel was growing. Insert Rockefeller’s and Getty’s of the world. Now fast forward to the Corporate Age, with transportation demands solved, distributions of factory goods was possible to/from anywhere. Corporations formed from factories with growing departments. With the corporations growing, Banks realized they could buy corporations and resell them. Insert the evolution Fed and corporations now creating value in the order of billions of USD. With corporations employing hundreds of people, people spending money, and banks managing transactions… a significant amount of data was accumulating. Hence the rapid development of technology to manage and organize this data. As technology has evolved, the importance of the security and integrity of this data has caused us to re-evaluate how this data is managed through the evolution of blockchain technology. Now we see are starting to see what we value physically, digitally.
https://blog.adioma.com/the-history-of-creating-value-infographic/
The value of the Euro is predicted to reach $.97 USD by September WSJ reported this morning. Tiktok influencers are flocking to Europe to grab hold of their Gucci, Prada, Coco and Chanel bags for almost half the price they are in the states. Meanwhile I’m back here wondering if I should get a pet chicken with the cost of eggs rising. All comments aside though, I do wonder how the changing value of the US dollar will impact our future and particularly cryptocurrency?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-dollar-extends-gains-with-no-end-to-rally-in-sight-11658066581
(Additionally, WSJ reported the WSJ Dollar Index, the index that measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, hit a 20 year high last week and is nearly up 2.5% this month. They also reported the Fed was likely to raise rates by another .75 percentage points this month and are doing what they can to stop rising consumer prices.)
On the future value of currency and its impact on cryptocurrency… some economic theories at play as depicted in Bankless’ interview with Lyn Alden.
http://podcast.banklesshq.com/127-is-this-the-end-lyn-alden
1. Long Term Debt Cycles: These macroeconomic trends resurface every several decades and each cycle is slightly different but the climax is consistently triggered by massive debt, threadbare interest rates, and currency devaluation. These factors combine to destabilize global systems, meaning ends of eras on a global scale: failing empires, wars, currency rebases, major demographic shifts. Decelerating growth, runway inflation, deep downtrends… when they hit the employment market…. its already a recession. Dalio predicts our next recession to be a catalyst for a transition from US-based dominance of the global economy to a multi polar world. Russia, China, India… they’ve already begun detaching from the dollar dominance in the midst of their own financial crises.
2. Opposing Milkshake Theory: The idea that the global financial upheaval upon which we seem to be flirting will actually be good news for dollar strength as the American economy will ultimately drink everyone else’s milkshake and re-assert global dominance. Many think this is only true until its not and some predict that short term dollar strength may actually be an indicator of long-term dollar decline. This is because the US Dollar is a global reserve currency. It’s the currency that most offshore debt is denominated in all over the world and $13 trillion in US denominated debt exist globally and over 50 trillion in US financial assets. With disruption in global cash flows, there is a short squeeze of the dollar and so it spikes upwards. Not really a strength but rather an unfolding weakness of other currencies. Ultimately this leads to an acceleration of the mega-macro move to multi-polarity which diminishes the global reliance on US economy and its dollar. Many signs pointing to this being only months away.
3. The Fed: Move Slow and Break Stuff: The Fed has been slow to respond to inflation, so now its stuck to move overly aggressively to catch up as economic activity is decelerating. Until the Fed breaks treasuries and credit markets, they will continue to raise rates. It is unlikely they can continue to raise rates until 2023, but they will not stop until it breaks the system. TBD.
How does this impact the crypto market: Interest rate hikes will likely be bad for the crypto market in the short term and right now digital assets are getting hit hard until this all plays out. The Merge is a secret weapon for Ethereum, but crypto as an asset is not really driving the macro environment. The Fed really has much bigger fish to fry right now. Of note the CeFi contagion took out scores of notable crypto banks to the tune of hundred of billions of dollars in just a number of weeks. Crypto is just a precursor to what we’ll see in its legacy equivalent. Infrastructure of crypto, web3, and DeFi have survived one deleveraging stress test but we shall see if they can continue with flying colors.
Axios Crypto reported that Stablecoins are the current focus of regulatory efforts. Bitcoin, which started as a peer-to-peer cash system has worked thus far because retail can't know what it will be worth from day to day. So far stablecoins haven’t disrupted shit. (currently 154B) Without regulation, a stablecoin that enters the mainstream of the financial system and is widely used as a means of payments and/or store of value in multiple jurisdictions could pose significant risks to financial stability. Hence, why no stablecoins are even close to mainstream. However, credit card companies are getting ready now for the possibility as reflected in a recent WSJ article. However, the article fails to mention exactly how credit card companies are implementing crypto and also companies that are facilitating crypto for card payments already.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cryptocurrency-is-coming-to-your-credit-cards-11657374215
Celsius, a blockchain technology that allowed its customers to earn interest on their cryptocurrency deposits, officially declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. They will remain in business, but now take time to pay off their debts. How they are branding it… “opportunity to stabilize their business and consummate a comprehensive restructuring transaction that maximize value for stakeholders.”
Bad news: There is no clear timeline for when its 300K active users with >$100USD in balances will be able to make withdrawals.
I would expect some layoffs @ Celsius and on top of that Celsius faces a lawsuit against its former investment manager accusing them of being a “Ponzi Scheme.”
A calendar hold for… September 19th. The new anticipated date of the the Merge, which I discussed in previous writings and referred to above.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-dev-confirms-perpetual-date-for-pos-merge
To bring this all together… last week I took the Enneagram test, which is a personality trait test that is categorized into nine different types. My dominate type was the “Enthusiast” or Type 7. Based on this type, I spend a significant amount of time and am strongly influenced in my behaviors and decision-making by what is called the “Head Center” of Intelligence. In short, I think a lot about the question, “How do I navigate the future?” This fear based type pays a lot of attention to what’s going to happen in the future and who/what I can trust to provide guidance through it. This type often struggles with anxiety- trying to outsmart it, outrun it, or allowing it to determine my decisions.
What we value… past, present, and future, is consistently evolving. While it is important to being thinking about these things… the future, the state of currency, what is valuable… we can’t forget to take a step back and just be present.
Will leave you with an interesting find in the NFT space below.
Utility… overused terms these days in my mind. But nonetheless there are a number of use cases being deployed right within the NFT space and sharing an interesting one.
Revulution NFTs
What are they? They are actual certificates of subscription ownership in the form of NFTs. You can now transfer your subscriptions to another person. You can send them as a gift or resell it on the market. If, for some reason you don’t want to use the subscription for a certain period of time, you can rent the NFT and earn a passive income or use it as a collateral for a loan with the launch of protocols on the Cardano network.
Heres the breakdown? You buy the Netflix for life NFT, you pay $349 USD. Then you decide to use it over the next 5 years. The cost of Netflix is $10/month, $120/year, over the course of those five years you save $600 bucks and your Netflix NFT will not use value if you use the subscription.
Where’s the catch? Only UK and EU citizen can use them (excluding Malta, Germany, and Austria). Subscriptions include Netflix + Spotify
Till next time… keep on keepin it real.
What do you value today?
Family, relationships, A cat named Jim. Maybe it’s not people/ pets though. Maybe it’s freedom, independence, or worldly experiences. Maybe it’s your health and wellness. Maybe it’s Power, Fame, Success. My point being, we place value on a number of different things in our life today.
What does the “world” value today?
A hybrid of the things above potentially, but also the value of the USD.
There is a colloquial saying, “Cash is King,” meaning cash is more valuable than any other form of investment tools. Whether you agree with this sentiment or not, how did “cash” become so valuable?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cash-is-king.asp
Well I’ll give you a pencil and napkin summary here.
First it started during the Hunter Age, when people traded crops and cattle. Then, people started going to war and wealth got a bad rep. The Warrior Age created value for the king and if you survived, receiving land was most valuable. People then began forming modern day cities. Useful and decorative crafts became valuable. As cities started to change the landscape, the idea to explore far away lands became a thing so exotic goods became valuable. Craftsmen kept perfecting their skills at home and afar and the introduction of machinery allowed for things to be mass produced so value was created significantly faster. Around this same time, transportation and the demand for fuel was growing. Insert Rockefeller’s and Getty’s of the world. Now fast forward to the Corporate Age, with transportation demands solved, distributions of factory goods was possible to/from anywhere. Corporations formed from factories with growing departments. With the corporations growing, Banks realized they could buy corporations and resell them. Insert the evolution Fed and corporations now creating value in the order of billions of USD. With corporations employing hundreds of people, people spending money, and banks managing transactions… a significant amount of data was accumulating. Hence the rapid development of technology to manage and organize this data. As technology has evolved, the importance of the security and integrity of this data has caused us to re-evaluate how this data is managed through the evolution of blockchain technology. Now we see are starting to see what we value physically, digitally.
https://blog.adioma.com/the-history-of-creating-value-infographic/
The value of the Euro is predicted to reach $.97 USD by September WSJ reported this morning. Tiktok influencers are flocking to Europe to grab hold of their Gucci, Prada, Coco and Chanel bags for almost half the price they are in the states. Meanwhile I’m back here wondering if I should get a pet chicken with the cost of eggs rising. All comments aside though, I do wonder how the changing value of the US dollar will impact our future and particularly cryptocurrency?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-dollar-extends-gains-with-no-end-to-rally-in-sight-11658066581
(Additionally, WSJ reported the WSJ Dollar Index, the index that measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, hit a 20 year high last week and is nearly up 2.5% this month. They also reported the Fed was likely to raise rates by another .75 percentage points this month and are doing what they can to stop rising consumer prices.)
On the future value of currency and its impact on cryptocurrency… some economic theories at play as depicted in Bankless’ interview with Lyn Alden.
http://podcast.banklesshq.com/127-is-this-the-end-lyn-alden
1. Long Term Debt Cycles: These macroeconomic trends resurface every several decades and each cycle is slightly different but the climax is consistently triggered by massive debt, threadbare interest rates, and currency devaluation. These factors combine to destabilize global systems, meaning ends of eras on a global scale: failing empires, wars, currency rebases, major demographic shifts. Decelerating growth, runway inflation, deep downtrends… when they hit the employment market…. its already a recession. Dalio predicts our next recession to be a catalyst for a transition from US-based dominance of the global economy to a multi polar world. Russia, China, India… they’ve already begun detaching from the dollar dominance in the midst of their own financial crises.
2. Opposing Milkshake Theory: The idea that the global financial upheaval upon which we seem to be flirting will actually be good news for dollar strength as the American economy will ultimately drink everyone else’s milkshake and re-assert global dominance. Many think this is only true until its not and some predict that short term dollar strength may actually be an indicator of long-term dollar decline. This is because the US Dollar is a global reserve currency. It’s the currency that most offshore debt is denominated in all over the world and $13 trillion in US denominated debt exist globally and over 50 trillion in US financial assets. With disruption in global cash flows, there is a short squeeze of the dollar and so it spikes upwards. Not really a strength but rather an unfolding weakness of other currencies. Ultimately this leads to an acceleration of the mega-macro move to multi-polarity which diminishes the global reliance on US economy and its dollar. Many signs pointing to this being only months away.
3. The Fed: Move Slow and Break Stuff: The Fed has been slow to respond to inflation, so now its stuck to move overly aggressively to catch up as economic activity is decelerating. Until the Fed breaks treasuries and credit markets, they will continue to raise rates. It is unlikely they can continue to raise rates until 2023, but they will not stop until it breaks the system. TBD.
How does this impact the crypto market: Interest rate hikes will likely be bad for the crypto market in the short term and right now digital assets are getting hit hard until this all plays out. The Merge is a secret weapon for Ethereum, but crypto as an asset is not really driving the macro environment. The Fed really has much bigger fish to fry right now. Of note the CeFi contagion took out scores of notable crypto banks to the tune of hundred of billions of dollars in just a number of weeks. Crypto is just a precursor to what we’ll see in its legacy equivalent. Infrastructure of crypto, web3, and DeFi have survived one deleveraging stress test but we shall see if they can continue with flying colors.
Axios Crypto reported that Stablecoins are the current focus of regulatory efforts. Bitcoin, which started as a peer-to-peer cash system has worked thus far because retail can't know what it will be worth from day to day. So far stablecoins haven’t disrupted shit. (currently 154B) Without regulation, a stablecoin that enters the mainstream of the financial system and is widely used as a means of payments and/or store of value in multiple jurisdictions could pose significant risks to financial stability. Hence, why no stablecoins are even close to mainstream. However, credit card companies are getting ready now for the possibility as reflected in a recent WSJ article. However, the article fails to mention exactly how credit card companies are implementing crypto and also companies that are facilitating crypto for card payments already.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cryptocurrency-is-coming-to-your-credit-cards-11657374215
Celsius, a blockchain technology that allowed its customers to earn interest on their cryptocurrency deposits, officially declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy. They will remain in business, but now take time to pay off their debts. How they are branding it… “opportunity to stabilize their business and consummate a comprehensive restructuring transaction that maximize value for stakeholders.”
Bad news: There is no clear timeline for when its 300K active users with >$100USD in balances will be able to make withdrawals.
I would expect some layoffs @ Celsius and on top of that Celsius faces a lawsuit against its former investment manager accusing them of being a “Ponzi Scheme.”
A calendar hold for… September 19th. The new anticipated date of the the Merge, which I discussed in previous writings and referred to above.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-dev-confirms-perpetual-date-for-pos-merge
To bring this all together… last week I took the Enneagram test, which is a personality trait test that is categorized into nine different types. My dominate type was the “Enthusiast” or Type 7. Based on this type, I spend a significant amount of time and am strongly influenced in my behaviors and decision-making by what is called the “Head Center” of Intelligence. In short, I think a lot about the question, “How do I navigate the future?” This fear based type pays a lot of attention to what’s going to happen in the future and who/what I can trust to provide guidance through it. This type often struggles with anxiety- trying to outsmart it, outrun it, or allowing it to determine my decisions.
What we value… past, present, and future, is consistently evolving. While it is important to being thinking about these things… the future, the state of currency, what is valuable… we can’t forget to take a step back and just be present.
Will leave you with an interesting find in the NFT space below.
Utility… overused terms these days in my mind. But nonetheless there are a number of use cases being deployed right within the NFT space and sharing an interesting one.
Revulution NFTs
What are they? They are actual certificates of subscription ownership in the form of NFTs. You can now transfer your subscriptions to another person. You can send them as a gift or resell it on the market. If, for some reason you don’t want to use the subscription for a certain period of time, you can rent the NFT and earn a passive income or use it as a collateral for a loan with the launch of protocols on the Cardano network.
Heres the breakdown? You buy the Netflix for life NFT, you pay $349 USD. Then you decide to use it over the next 5 years. The cost of Netflix is $10/month, $120/year, over the course of those five years you save $600 bucks and your Netflix NFT will not use value if you use the subscription.
Where’s the catch? Only UK and EU citizen can use them (excluding Malta, Germany, and Austria). Subscriptions include Netflix + Spotify
Till next time… keep on keepin it real.
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