THE 2 QUESTIONS ON EVERYONE'S MIND DURING CRYPTO WINTER

This crypto winter has been rough so far. But in times like these, veteran crypto investors are chuckling at these 70% losses because they’ve lived through this, and worse. First-time investors are sweating like when your teacher asks you to present your book report to the class, but you never opened the book.

Whether you’re a vet or new to crypto, there’s always two questions that creep into everyone’s minds:

1/ Is crypto really the next big thing or was it just hype? 2/ How long will the pain last?

Today we’re gonna answer both.To answer the first question, we’re gonna get some help from Chris Dixon.

Chris is: Head of A16Z’s crypto funds (~$7b in those funds) An OG internet investor Someone who opens the Milk Road every day…what up Chris! He recently wrote a blog post titled: Toys, Secrets, and Cycles: Lessons from the 2000s. In it, he talks about the early days of the internet and how similar it is to Web3 today. Now this might shock a few of the younger folks but….the Internet wasn’t always as popular as it is today.

In the early 2000’s: People spent ~30 minutes online (compared to ~7 hours today). Email was the most popular internet use case and no one though it needed to be faster Building things on the internet was a weekend hobby. Trying to build an online business would make you the laughing stock of town.But even though most people viewed these early products as “toys,” they ended up being the multi-billion dollar companies we all know today. **Chris believes history is repeating itself in crypto and Web3. It isn’t just hype.**So what’s his advice?

Preserve money (don’t degen it all away)

Focus on the product cycles.

Things that look interesting to smart people usually do because they are rich with product possibilities What the smartest people do on the weekend is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years.

**Now for the second question: How long will the pain last?**For this one, we’re gonna phone another crypto OG and get some insights from Tom Loverro. Tom is: An investor for IVP (invested in companies like Coinbase, Discord, and FTX) A former board member for Coinbase An OG crypto investor that’s been in the game since 2013

Here are some of his predictions

Crypto prices will go lower this year.

Prices will flatten until the 2nd half of 2023

Why? Two reasons:

1/ VCs and crypto investors suffer from “recency bias”. They’re expecting a quick rebound. Which is exactly what happened after the 2020 Covid black swan.But a black swan isn’t the same thing as a bear. And this bear is the result of rising interest rates, so he expects the rebound to take longer.

2/ Going from peak to floor historically takes ~12 months. BTCs peak was in November 2021. So if history is to repeat itself, the bottom might not hit until later this year.His advice? Have enough cash to get you through the next 24-36 months. And take time to prepare for the next run. Crypto will come back bigger than ever. History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

So here’s a little rhyme for you: Roses are red, markets are too... But we’re here for the long haul, how about you?

THE 2 QUESTIONS ON EVERYONE'S MIND DURING CRYPTO WINTER

This crypto winter has been rough so far. But in times like these, veteran crypto investors are chuckling at these 70% losses because they’ve lived through this, and worse. First-time investors are sweating like when your teacher asks you to present your book report to the class, but you never opened the book.

Whether you’re a vet or new to crypto, there’s always two questions that creep into everyone’s minds:

1/ Is crypto really the next big thing or was it just hype? 2/ How long will the pain last?

Today we’re gonna answer both.To answer the first question, we’re gonna get some help from Chris Dixon.

Chris is: Head of A16Z’s crypto funds (~$7b in those funds) An OG internet investor Someone who opens the Milk Road every day…what up Chris! He recently wrote a blog post titled: Toys, Secrets, and Cycles: Lessons from the 2000s. In it, he talks about the early days of the internet and how similar it is to Web3 today. Now this might shock a few of the younger folks but….the Internet wasn’t always as popular as it is today.

In the early 2000’s: People spent ~30 minutes online (compared to ~7 hours today). Email was the most popular internet use case and no one though it needed to be faster Building things on the internet was a weekend hobby. Trying to build an online business would make you the laughing stock of town.But even though most people viewed these early products as “toys,” they ended up being the multi-billion dollar companies we all know today. **Chris believes history is repeating itself in crypto and Web3. It isn’t just hype.**So what’s his advice?

Preserve money (don’t degen it all away)

Focus on the product cycles.

Things that look interesting to smart people usually do because they are rich with product possibilities What the smartest people do on the weekend is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years.

**Now for the second question: How long will the pain last?**For this one, we’re gonna phone another crypto OG and get some insights from Tom Loverro. Tom is: An investor for IVP (invested in companies like Coinbase, Discord, and FTX) A former board member for Coinbase An OG crypto investor that’s been in the game since 2013

Here are some of his predictions

Crypto prices will go lower this year.

Prices will flatten until the 2nd half of 2023

Why? Two reasons:

1/ VCs and crypto investors suffer from “recency bias”. They’re expecting a quick rebound. Which is exactly what happened after the 2020 Covid black swan.But a black swan isn’t the same thing as a bear. And this bear is the result of rising interest rates, so he expects the rebound to take longer.

2/ Going from peak to floor historically takes ~12 months. BTCs peak was in November 2021. So if history is to repeat itself, the bottom might not hit until later this year.His advice? Have enough cash to get you through the next 24-36 months. And take time to prepare for the next run. Crypto will come back bigger than ever. History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

So here’s a little rhyme for you: Roses are red, markets are too... But we’re here for the long haul, how about you?