From All-Time High to 30 % Plunge
Bitcoin has tumbled roughly 30 % since its October 6 record of $126 k, wiping out the year-to-date gain and pushing the 12-month return to just +0.8 %. Holder disappointment is palpable, and social-media sentiment feels as negative as I can remember. But anecdotes can mislead; Reddit or X may be nothing more than echo chambers. What do the hard data say? The five charts below tell the story.
Chart 1 – $7 Trillion More Liquidity, Same Old Price
Zerohedge points out that global liquidity is now $7 trillion higher than the last time Bitcoin traded at these levels. Historically, BTC tracked liquidity almost tick-for-tick; the breakdown of that relationship has traders asking whether Wall-Street adoption has fundamentally altered market structure. Whatever the explanation, the 30 % slide in six weeks is undeniable.
Chart 2 – The Third 30 % Draw-down of This Cycle
According to James van Straten, the current retreat is the cycle’s third 30 % correction—and each one has lasted less time than the last, compressing panic into ever-shorter windows:
August 2024 (Yen-carry unwind): 147 days
April 2025 (tariff scare): 77 days
November 2025: 42 days and counting
Chart 3 – Daily RSI Hits Oversold Territory
CoinBureau data show Bitcoin’s daily RSI has fallen to 26, its lowest since February and deep inside the oversold zone. Technically, the market is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Chart 4 – 95 % of Short-Term Holders Underwater
Quinten François highlights that more than 95 % of all coins moved within the last 155 days are now held at a loss. Nothing crushes morale faster than instant red P&L. Eventually, price falls far enough to lure buyers back—whether that level is $90 k or lower remains to be seen.
Chart 5 – Whales Are Net Buyers Again
Bitwise’s André Dragosch notes that addresses with 1 000+ BTC have flipped to aggressive accumulation at current levels. Even as global liquidity surges and price collapses, the largest wallets are quietly refilling their bags.
Fear & Greed Still below 20
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains below 20—“extreme fear.” This is the volatility, chaos and uncertainty veteran Bitcoiners know all too well. Those who keep their heads while others panic have, more often than not, been the ones rewarded—easier said than done.
From All-Time High to 30 % Plunge
Bitcoin has tumbled roughly 30 % since its October 6 record of $126 k, wiping out the year-to-date gain and pushing the 12-month return to just +0.8 %. Holder disappointment is palpable, and social-media sentiment feels as negative as I can remember. But anecdotes can mislead; Reddit or X may be nothing more than echo chambers. What do the hard data say? The five charts below tell the story.
Chart 1 – $7 Trillion More Liquidity, Same Old Price
Zerohedge points out that global liquidity is now $7 trillion higher than the last time Bitcoin traded at these levels. Historically, BTC tracked liquidity almost tick-for-tick; the breakdown of that relationship has traders asking whether Wall-Street adoption has fundamentally altered market structure. Whatever the explanation, the 30 % slide in six weeks is undeniable.
Chart 2 – The Third 30 % Draw-down of This Cycle
According to James van Straten, the current retreat is the cycle’s third 30 % correction—and each one has lasted less time than the last, compressing panic into ever-shorter windows:
August 2024 (Yen-carry unwind): 147 days
April 2025 (tariff scare): 77 days
November 2025: 42 days and counting
Chart 3 – Daily RSI Hits Oversold Territory
CoinBureau data show Bitcoin’s daily RSI has fallen to 26, its lowest since February and deep inside the oversold zone. Technically, the market is scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Chart 4 – 95 % of Short-Term Holders Underwater
Quinten François highlights that more than 95 % of all coins moved within the last 155 days are now held at a loss. Nothing crushes morale faster than instant red P&L. Eventually, price falls far enough to lure buyers back—whether that level is $90 k or lower remains to be seen.
Chart 5 – Whales Are Net Buyers Again
Bitwise’s André Dragosch notes that addresses with 1 000+ BTC have flipped to aggressive accumulation at current levels. Even as global liquidity surges and price collapses, the largest wallets are quietly refilling their bags.
Fear & Greed Still below 20
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains below 20—“extreme fear.” This is the volatility, chaos and uncertainty veteran Bitcoiners know all too well. Those who keep their heads while others panic have, more often than not, been the ones rewarded—easier said than done.
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5 Charts to Decode Today’s Bitcoin Market: Where Exactly Are We?
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5 Charts to Decode Today’s Bitcoin Market: Where Exactly Are We?
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