Uncommonlab Weekly Alpha summarizes and delivers newly emerging crypto alpha information every week.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a company that has raised capital through stock issuance and convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin as a treasury strategy.

• However, as the price of Bitcoin has recently fallen sharply, MSTR’s stock has also dropped 62% from its October peak of $457, closing at $171.

• With both Bitcoin and the stock price declining, MSTR’s current modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) is around 1.12. CEO Phong Le noted that if mNAV falls below 1 and the company becomes unable to raise additional capital, they may be forced to sell Bitcoin—an option never previously acknowledged.

• To secure emergency liquidity, MSTR sold shares on December 1st to cover 21 months of interest expenses, temporarily easing short-term risks. However, if Bitcoin falls below $74,000, the company could face forced-selling pressure.

Despite positioning Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, MicroStrategy is now experiencing a liquidity crisis caused by the recent decline in both its stock and Bitcoin price. Although Michael Saylor has repeatedly insisted that MSTR will never sell Bitcoin, CEO Phong Le stated for the first time that if mNAV drops below 1 and capital cannot be raised, selling Bitcoin may become unavoidable. Even after securing $1.4B in emergency liquidity, if Bitcoin continues to fall toward MSTR’s average purchase price of $74K, forced selling could occur—potentially triggering simultaneous declines in both MSTR stock and Bitcoin. This scenario warrants close attention.

• Kamino has long held the leading market share in the Solana lending ecosystem.

• However, Jupiter recently launched its own lending platform, JupiterLend (Juplend), which reached $490M TVL within one week, quickly capturing 13% of Solana’s lending market.

• Feeling competitive pressure, Kamino responded by reducing liquidation penalties from 1% to 0.1% and lowering liquidation batch size from 20% to 10%.

• Yet, as Juplend continued to gain share, Kamino applied a controversial code-level update that prevents Kamino users from refinancing or migrating loans to Juplend, effectively blocking access to better rates offered by Juplend.

With Jupiter entering a market once dominated exclusively by Kamino, the landscape is shifting rapidly. Powered by the Fluid engine, Juplend offers lower borrowing rates than Kamino and surpassed $1B TVL within six months of launch.
Facing significant user and liquidity attrition, Kamino implemented technical restrictions to stop capital from moving to Juplend, which has drawn heavy criticism from the community for limiting users’ control over their own assets, contradicting the decentralization ethos of blockchain. Cases of lending protocols blocking cross-platform migration like this are extremely rare, making this situation particularly notable.

• Tether, the issuer of USDT, has recently been making aggressive investments, purchasing large amounts of gold and Bitcoin.

• This is seen as preparation for a future interest rate cut, which would reduce yield from U.S. Treasury holdings and may require alternative sources of income.

• Arthur Hayes posted on his social media suggesting that if external macro conditions caused the prices of gold and Bitcoin to drop 30%, Tether’s capital could be depleted and the company could become theoretically insolvent. He argued that to properly assess this risk, real-time visibility into Tether’s liabilities is necessary.

• In response, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that Tether currently has $215B in total assets versus $184.5B in liabilities (USDT supply), indicating a strong capital position. He emphasized that Tether earns over $500M per month from U.S. treasury yields alone, and accused critics of spreading FUD by excluding shareholder equity from their calculations.

Arthur Hayes argued that a 30% drop in the value of gold and Bitcoin on Tether’s balance sheet could theoretically lead to insolvency, whereas Paolo Ardoino countered that Tether remains financially healthy with $215B in assets and $184.5B in liabilities, plus additional group capital and substantial treasury income.
Although Tether has faced numerous waves of FUD and even temporary depegging since USDT first launched, it has survived and remains the leading stablecoin. Nonetheless, it is true that a relatively high allocation to assets not easily liquidated immediately, such as gold and Bitcoin, may require more careful balance management moving forward.

• Opinion is an AI-oracle-based prediction market platform launched on the BNB Chain.

• The project raised $5M led by YZi Labs and is currently running an OPN points program based on trading volume.

• Thanks to the rising valuation of prediction markets following projects like Polychain and Kalshi, Opinion quickly achieved a daily peak trading volume of $169.2M.

• During a recent AMA, the team confirmed that its native token launch is coming soon, increasing market anticipation.

Opinion enables trading on predictions related to macroeconomic events, politics, and cryptocurrency markets. It has raised $5M led by YZi Labs and currently supports only the BNB Chain, making it comparable to Aster as a BNB-exclusive prediction market.
Users can earn OPN points based on trading activity, which are expected to be tied to future token airdrops. If Opinion receives the typical prioritization and infrastructure benefits often given to BNB-chain projects by Binance, strong performance after TGE could be expected, similar to Aster.

• Yearn Finance is a DeFi yield optimization protocol founded by Andre Cronje.

• yETH is a community-governed LST index, where users deposit ETH-based LST tokens to mint yETH at a 1:1 ratio.

• Recently, a critical vulnerability was exploited, resulting in an attack on Yearn Finance’s yETH.

• The attacker abused an infinite minting bug in the yETH contract to generate 235 trillion yETH in a single transaction, then swapped them through the Balancer pool for ETH and LST tokens, draining liquidity and effectively driving the value of yETH to zero.

• Approximately 1,000 ETH was transferred to Tornado Cash for laundering, making recovery difficult, while remaining LST tokens still sit in the attacker’s wallet.

• The only positive outcome is that the vulnerability was limited to the yETH pool, and no issues were found in Yearn’s main vaults.

The exploit resulted in losses of around 1,000 ETH through an infinite-mint flaw in yETH. Although Yearn claims the issue is isolated to the yETH pool and that vaults remain secure, the damage is substantial, and once a DeFi protocol is exploited, the risk of additional vulnerabilities remains unpredictable. For that reason, avoiding the protocol may be advisable until trust and security assurances are restored.

• Daylight is an RWA/DePIN project that builds a virtual power plant (VPP) by aggregating household energy resources such as solar panels and batteries.

• The project recently raised $75M from top-tier VCs including a16z, Framework Ventures, and Coinbase Ventures.

• In December, Daylight plans to launch a Pre-Deposit Vault on the Plasma chain, backed by U.S. Treasury bills.

• The revenue model is structured so that power generation revenue from solar energy will be distributed as DeFi yields to depositors. However, because the project is still at an early stage before large-scale commercial power generation, there are uncertainties around the business model and regulatory risks in the energy sector.

Daylight aims to provide DeFi yields backed by revenue generated from solar power. The idea of transforming energy into a new financial asset has drawn strong interest, and the recent $75M investment validates market confidence. The Pre-Deposit Vault is expected to open in December, and while it remains unclear how much revenue solar infrastructure will generate initially, the project appears to have sufficient capital runway and is highly likely to issue its own token. For this reason, participating in early farming may be attractive.

• Seeker is a smartphone developed by Solana Mobile, serving as the successor to the Saga, which was released in 2023.

• The device includes: A Seed Vault Wallet that stores private keys locally using a Solflare-based hardware wallet and fingerprint authentication / Seeker ID, an on-chain identity system that combines wallet addresses with a Genesis Token / A Store featuring access to over 100 Solana dApps

• Recently, the team announced the launch of the SKR token, scheduled for January 2026, and released its tokenomics — notably assigning 30% of supply to the airdrop, a significantly large allocation.

• The airdrop is expected to be distributed to users who receive the physical Seeker phone, activate the device, and claim their Genesis Token.

Seeker is a Solana ecosystem–exclusive smartphone developed by a Solana subsidiary. Prior to Seeker, the Saga smartphone offered airdrops of Solana ecosystem memecoins to buyers, eventually exceeding the device’s retail cost in value. Because of this precedent, many purchased Seeker expecting similar rewards — and indeed, the total value of airdrops distributed so far has already exceeded the cost of the device for many users. Following shipment of the Seeker units, the team announced the SKR token launch and published tokenomics showing a large 30% allocation for airdrops. To receive SKR, users will likely need to physically receive the Seeker phone, activate their account, and claim their Genesis token. While the market value of SKR remains unknown, the fact that the token is launching after full device delivery and is supported by the Solana Foundation suggests that performance could be strong.

• Miden is a regulation-friendly privacy ZK rollup project that has raised $25M from leading VCs including Polygon Ventures, 1kx, Hack VC, and a16z.

• Originally developed within Polygon, Miden later spun out as an independent project. It plans to airdrop 10% of its token supply to POL stakers, based on a snapshot taken on April 29, 2025.

• The project is targeting the launch of its privacy-focused L2 mainnet, Edge, in March 2026, and a native token issuance has been confirmed.

Miden is a regulation-friendly privacy ZK rollup backed by $25M in funding. With the mainnet scheduled for March 2026 and a confirmed token launch, positioning for an airdrop opportunity seems worthwhile. Although there is currently no official testnet or Discord access, the most accessible strategy is likely to increase Kaito Pre-TGE mindshare ranking to maximize the chance of qualifying for the token airdrop.

• Infinex is a non-custodial multi-chain platform led by CEO Kain Warwick, the founder of Synthetix. It aims to solve the complexity of existing DeFi and provide a centralized exchange-like user experience.

• The INX token sale is scheduled to take place on Sonar, the token sale platform that recently hosted the MegaETH sale. Sonar will offer 5% of the INX supply at a $300M FDV with a 1-year lockup.

• The lockup mechanism is unusual — the token will start at a $1B valuation on TGE day and gradually converge to a $300M valuation over time. If the market valuation rises above the vesting valuation, participants can claim and sell their tokens at any time.

• The team claims that the Patron NFT currently maintains a $400M FDV based on its current price. However, most of the NFTs are held by the team, VCs, and related parties. With only around 5,000 of the 100,000 NFTs actually circulating, the 1.5 ETH floor price is likely artificially supported. Therefore, saying that Patron NFTs reflect a $400M valuation is essentially meaningless.

• The TGE date is set for January 15, 2026, and Patron NFT holders are guaranteed an airdrop of 100K INK tokens — fully unlocked and liquid on TGE day.

The INX token sale is being run through Sonar. I believe there is no need to participate because the Infinex team themselves set the sale valuation at $300M based on the Patron NFTs, which is unreasonable given the manipulated supply and price conditions. Since NFT holders receive an unlocked 100K INK token airdrop at TGE, it makes more sense to either buy the NFT and potentially sell the airdrop if the valuation is high, or simply not participate in the sale at all — rather than committing funds to a 1-year locked token sale.

• Noda is a CLOB DEX on the INK L2 chain built by the Kraken team.

• It launched its private alpha on November 20th, featuring a structure that maximizes capital efficiency by allowing users to manage spot, perp, and money-market positions simultaneously using their entire portfolio as collateral.

• Users earn Nado Points by trading on Nado or depositing into the NLP Vault with USDT0, and these points are expected to convert into INK token airdrops later.

• The Kraken-backed INK token TGE is expected to take place in Q1 2026.

Nado is currently the highest-volume CLOB DEX on the INK chain, achieving $1B in cumulative trading volume within just two weeks of launch, despite being in private alpha and requiring an invite code to access. This growth likely comes from the demand to farm INK tokens through earning points on Nado. Similar to other perp DEXs, there is an NLP Vault, and since its capacity is currently limited, it might be worthwhile to deposit USDT0 to farm points once the cap is expanded. It is expected that, leading up to TGE, INK Chain will attract users and increase TVL by distributing token incentives through dApps like Nado.

• This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific asset. Investments in cryptocurrencies and digital assets involve high risk, and you should conduct your own research and make decisions carefully.

• All research commentary reflects the views of the Uncommonlab research interns and does not represent financial or legal advice, nor does it encourage the trading of any specific asset.

Uncommonlab Weekly Alpha summarizes and delivers newly emerging crypto alpha information every week.

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a company that has raised capital through stock issuance and convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin as a treasury strategy.

• However, as the price of Bitcoin has recently fallen sharply, MSTR’s stock has also dropped 62% from its October peak of $457, closing at $171.

• With both Bitcoin and the stock price declining, MSTR’s current modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) is around 1.12. CEO Phong Le noted that if mNAV falls below 1 and the company becomes unable to raise additional capital, they may be forced to sell Bitcoin—an option never previously acknowledged.

• To secure emergency liquidity, MSTR sold shares on December 1st to cover 21 months of interest expenses, temporarily easing short-term risks. However, if Bitcoin falls below $74,000, the company could face forced-selling pressure.

Despite positioning Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, MicroStrategy is now experiencing a liquidity crisis caused by the recent decline in both its stock and Bitcoin price. Although Michael Saylor has repeatedly insisted that MSTR will never sell Bitcoin, CEO Phong Le stated for the first time that if mNAV drops below 1 and capital cannot be raised, selling Bitcoin may become unavoidable. Even after securing $1.4B in emergency liquidity, if Bitcoin continues to fall toward MSTR’s average purchase price of $74K, forced selling could occur—potentially triggering simultaneous declines in both MSTR stock and Bitcoin. This scenario warrants close attention.

• Kamino has long held the leading market share in the Solana lending ecosystem.

• However, Jupiter recently launched its own lending platform, JupiterLend (Juplend), which reached $490M TVL within one week, quickly capturing 13% of Solana’s lending market.

• Feeling competitive pressure, Kamino responded by reducing liquidation penalties from 1% to 0.1% and lowering liquidation batch size from 20% to 10%.

• Yet, as Juplend continued to gain share, Kamino applied a controversial code-level update that prevents Kamino users from refinancing or migrating loans to Juplend, effectively blocking access to better rates offered by Juplend.

With Jupiter entering a market once dominated exclusively by Kamino, the landscape is shifting rapidly. Powered by the Fluid engine, Juplend offers lower borrowing rates than Kamino and surpassed $1B TVL within six months of launch.
Facing significant user and liquidity attrition, Kamino implemented technical restrictions to stop capital from moving to Juplend, which has drawn heavy criticism from the community for limiting users’ control over their own assets, contradicting the decentralization ethos of blockchain. Cases of lending protocols blocking cross-platform migration like this are extremely rare, making this situation particularly notable.

• Tether, the issuer of USDT, has recently been making aggressive investments, purchasing large amounts of gold and Bitcoin.

• This is seen as preparation for a future interest rate cut, which would reduce yield from U.S. Treasury holdings and may require alternative sources of income.

• Arthur Hayes posted on his social media suggesting that if external macro conditions caused the prices of gold and Bitcoin to drop 30%, Tether’s capital could be depleted and the company could become theoretically insolvent. He argued that to properly assess this risk, real-time visibility into Tether’s liabilities is necessary.

• In response, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that Tether currently has $215B in total assets versus $184.5B in liabilities (USDT supply), indicating a strong capital position. He emphasized that Tether earns over $500M per month from U.S. treasury yields alone, and accused critics of spreading FUD by excluding shareholder equity from their calculations.

Arthur Hayes argued that a 30% drop in the value of gold and Bitcoin on Tether’s balance sheet could theoretically lead to insolvency, whereas Paolo Ardoino countered that Tether remains financially healthy with $215B in assets and $184.5B in liabilities, plus additional group capital and substantial treasury income.
Although Tether has faced numerous waves of FUD and even temporary depegging since USDT first launched, it has survived and remains the leading stablecoin. Nonetheless, it is true that a relatively high allocation to assets not easily liquidated immediately, such as gold and Bitcoin, may require more careful balance management moving forward.

• Opinion is an AI-oracle-based prediction market platform launched on the BNB Chain.

• The project raised $5M led by YZi Labs and is currently running an OPN points program based on trading volume.

• Thanks to the rising valuation of prediction markets following projects like Polychain and Kalshi, Opinion quickly achieved a daily peak trading volume of $169.2M.

• During a recent AMA, the team confirmed that its native token launch is coming soon, increasing market anticipation.

Opinion enables trading on predictions related to macroeconomic events, politics, and cryptocurrency markets. It has raised $5M led by YZi Labs and currently supports only the BNB Chain, making it comparable to Aster as a BNB-exclusive prediction market.
Users can earn OPN points based on trading activity, which are expected to be tied to future token airdrops. If Opinion receives the typical prioritization and infrastructure benefits often given to BNB-chain projects by Binance, strong performance after TGE could be expected, similar to Aster.

• Yearn Finance is a DeFi yield optimization protocol founded by Andre Cronje.

• yETH is a community-governed LST index, where users deposit ETH-based LST tokens to mint yETH at a 1:1 ratio.

• Recently, a critical vulnerability was exploited, resulting in an attack on Yearn Finance’s yETH.

• The attacker abused an infinite minting bug in the yETH contract to generate 235 trillion yETH in a single transaction, then swapped them through the Balancer pool for ETH and LST tokens, draining liquidity and effectively driving the value of yETH to zero.

• Approximately 1,000 ETH was transferred to Tornado Cash for laundering, making recovery difficult, while remaining LST tokens still sit in the attacker’s wallet.

• The only positive outcome is that the vulnerability was limited to the yETH pool, and no issues were found in Yearn’s main vaults.

The exploit resulted in losses of around 1,000 ETH through an infinite-mint flaw in yETH. Although Yearn claims the issue is isolated to the yETH pool and that vaults remain secure, the damage is substantial, and once a DeFi protocol is exploited, the risk of additional vulnerabilities remains unpredictable. For that reason, avoiding the protocol may be advisable until trust and security assurances are restored.

• Daylight is an RWA/DePIN project that builds a virtual power plant (VPP) by aggregating household energy resources such as solar panels and batteries.

• The project recently raised $75M from top-tier VCs including a16z, Framework Ventures, and Coinbase Ventures.

• In December, Daylight plans to launch a Pre-Deposit Vault on the Plasma chain, backed by U.S. Treasury bills.

• The revenue model is structured so that power generation revenue from solar energy will be distributed as DeFi yields to depositors. However, because the project is still at an early stage before large-scale commercial power generation, there are uncertainties around the business model and regulatory risks in the energy sector.

Daylight aims to provide DeFi yields backed by revenue generated from solar power. The idea of transforming energy into a new financial asset has drawn strong interest, and the recent $75M investment validates market confidence. The Pre-Deposit Vault is expected to open in December, and while it remains unclear how much revenue solar infrastructure will generate initially, the project appears to have sufficient capital runway and is highly likely to issue its own token. For this reason, participating in early farming may be attractive.

• Seeker is a smartphone developed by Solana Mobile, serving as the successor to the Saga, which was released in 2023.

• The device includes: A Seed Vault Wallet that stores private keys locally using a Solflare-based hardware wallet and fingerprint authentication / Seeker ID, an on-chain identity system that combines wallet addresses with a Genesis Token / A Store featuring access to over 100 Solana dApps

• Recently, the team announced the launch of the SKR token, scheduled for January 2026, and released its tokenomics — notably assigning 30% of supply to the airdrop, a significantly large allocation.

• The airdrop is expected to be distributed to users who receive the physical Seeker phone, activate the device, and claim their Genesis Token.

Seeker is a Solana ecosystem–exclusive smartphone developed by a Solana subsidiary. Prior to Seeker, the Saga smartphone offered airdrops of Solana ecosystem memecoins to buyers, eventually exceeding the device’s retail cost in value. Because of this precedent, many purchased Seeker expecting similar rewards — and indeed, the total value of airdrops distributed so far has already exceeded the cost of the device for many users. Following shipment of the Seeker units, the team announced the SKR token launch and published tokenomics showing a large 30% allocation for airdrops. To receive SKR, users will likely need to physically receive the Seeker phone, activate their account, and claim their Genesis token. While the market value of SKR remains unknown, the fact that the token is launching after full device delivery and is supported by the Solana Foundation suggests that performance could be strong.

• Miden is a regulation-friendly privacy ZK rollup project that has raised $25M from leading VCs including Polygon Ventures, 1kx, Hack VC, and a16z.

• Originally developed within Polygon, Miden later spun out as an independent project. It plans to airdrop 10% of its token supply to POL stakers, based on a snapshot taken on April 29, 2025.

• The project is targeting the launch of its privacy-focused L2 mainnet, Edge, in March 2026, and a native token issuance has been confirmed.

Miden is a regulation-friendly privacy ZK rollup backed by $25M in funding. With the mainnet scheduled for March 2026 and a confirmed token launch, positioning for an airdrop opportunity seems worthwhile. Although there is currently no official testnet or Discord access, the most accessible strategy is likely to increase Kaito Pre-TGE mindshare ranking to maximize the chance of qualifying for the token airdrop.

• Infinex is a non-custodial multi-chain platform led by CEO Kain Warwick, the founder of Synthetix. It aims to solve the complexity of existing DeFi and provide a centralized exchange-like user experience.

• The INX token sale is scheduled to take place on Sonar, the token sale platform that recently hosted the MegaETH sale. Sonar will offer 5% of the INX supply at a $300M FDV with a 1-year lockup.

• The lockup mechanism is unusual — the token will start at a $1B valuation on TGE day and gradually converge to a $300M valuation over time. If the market valuation rises above the vesting valuation, participants can claim and sell their tokens at any time.

• The team claims that the Patron NFT currently maintains a $400M FDV based on its current price. However, most of the NFTs are held by the team, VCs, and related parties. With only around 5,000 of the 100,000 NFTs actually circulating, the 1.5 ETH floor price is likely artificially supported. Therefore, saying that Patron NFTs reflect a $400M valuation is essentially meaningless.

• The TGE date is set for January 15, 2026, and Patron NFT holders are guaranteed an airdrop of 100K INK tokens — fully unlocked and liquid on TGE day.

The INX token sale is being run through Sonar. I believe there is no need to participate because the Infinex team themselves set the sale valuation at $300M based on the Patron NFTs, which is unreasonable given the manipulated supply and price conditions. Since NFT holders receive an unlocked 100K INK token airdrop at TGE, it makes more sense to either buy the NFT and potentially sell the airdrop if the valuation is high, or simply not participate in the sale at all — rather than committing funds to a 1-year locked token sale.

• Noda is a CLOB DEX on the INK L2 chain built by the Kraken team.

• It launched its private alpha on November 20th, featuring a structure that maximizes capital efficiency by allowing users to manage spot, perp, and money-market positions simultaneously using their entire portfolio as collateral.

• Users earn Nado Points by trading on Nado or depositing into the NLP Vault with USDT0, and these points are expected to convert into INK token airdrops later.

• The Kraken-backed INK token TGE is expected to take place in Q1 2026.

Nado is currently the highest-volume CLOB DEX on the INK chain, achieving $1B in cumulative trading volume within just two weeks of launch, despite being in private alpha and requiring an invite code to access. This growth likely comes from the demand to farm INK tokens through earning points on Nado. Similar to other perp DEXs, there is an NLP Vault, and since its capacity is currently limited, it might be worthwhile to deposit USDT0 to farm points once the cap is expanded. It is expected that, leading up to TGE, INK Chain will attract users and increase TVL by distributing token incentives through dApps like Nado.

• This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific asset. Investments in cryptocurrencies and digital assets involve high risk, and you should conduct your own research and make decisions carefully.

• All research commentary reflects the views of the Uncommonlab research interns and does not represent financial or legal advice, nor does it encourage the trading of any specific asset.