Bitcoin entered a phase of strong correction, erasing practically all of the gains from 2025 and experiencing the worst month since 2022, which impacts both the market's mood and the perceived risk in all cryptoassets. In the coming months, the scenario tends to be very volatile, with possibilities ranging from sideways consolidation to a new upward leg if the macro environment and institutional appetite improve.​

Since its all-time high of close to $125,000 in October, Bitcoin has fallen by around 30%, trading in the $80–85,000 range in recent sessions.​

The correction took more than $1 trillion off the crypto market value, making this the worst month since the 2022 meltdown (Terra/FTX).​

The drop came with mass liquidations of leveraged positions, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a global “risk-off” movement due to uncertain interest rates, tariffs, and fear of a tech bubble. Impactos de curto prazo

Base scenario: many reports speak of a period of consolidation, with Bitcoin oscillating around supports in the region of 80–90 thousand dollars, while investors digest interest rates, inflation, and economic performance.​

Optimistic scenario: if there is a resumption of flow to ETFs, an improvement in the interest rate scenario, and a resumption of appetite for risk, some projections still speak of Bitcoin returning to the range of 120–200 thousand dollars in 2025, although with enormous uncertainty.​

Pessimistic scenario: part of the market warns of the risk of much deeper falls if risk aversion worsens, with some analysts citing even levels close to ten thousand dollars as an extreme scenario, although unlikely.​

Position size: it is recommended to hold crypto as a limited slice (many sources quote up to 10% of the total portfolio, and less for conservative profiles) so that a 50% drop does not destroy your financial plan.​

Strategy: Instead of trying to guess the bottom line, techniques such as periodic contributions (DCA), clear rebalancing rules, and loss limits per trade help reduce impulse decisions.​

Protection: avoiding leverage, keeping an emergency reserve outside of crypto, and, if necessary, migrating part of very risky altcoins to more solid assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, or large stablecoins) can make the wallet more resilient.​

High volatility should continue: cycles of “violent rises followed by rapid falls” tend to remain as the market seeks a new equilibrium after the 2025 crash.​

The macro rules a lot: Fed decisions on interest rates, employment data, inflation, and the climate in technology and AI stocks will continue to affect the appetite for crypto.​

For the long-term investor, the most prudent focus is to have an allocation plan (both in crypto and outside), respecting your risk profile and accepting that the path to any new high can be long and full of ups and downs.​

If you want, you can put together an objective plan: maximum percentage of crypto within your assets, how much to put in Bitcoin vs. other currencies, and simple rebalancing rules for the next 6–12 months.

Check my Farcaster and Base App

Bitcoin entered a phase of strong correction, erasing practically all of the gains from 2025 and experiencing the worst month since 2022, which impacts both the market's mood and the perceived risk in all cryptoassets. In the coming months, the scenario tends to be very volatile, with possibilities ranging from sideways consolidation to a new upward leg if the macro environment and institutional appetite improve.​

Since its all-time high of close to $125,000 in October, Bitcoin has fallen by around 30%, trading in the $80–85,000 range in recent sessions.​

The correction took more than $1 trillion off the crypto market value, making this the worst month since the 2022 meltdown (Terra/FTX).​

The drop came with mass liquidations of leveraged positions, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a global “risk-off” movement due to uncertain interest rates, tariffs, and fear of a tech bubble. Impactos de curto prazo

Base scenario: many reports speak of a period of consolidation, with Bitcoin oscillating around supports in the region of 80–90 thousand dollars, while investors digest interest rates, inflation, and economic performance.​

Optimistic scenario: if there is a resumption of flow to ETFs, an improvement in the interest rate scenario, and a resumption of appetite for risk, some projections still speak of Bitcoin returning to the range of 120–200 thousand dollars in 2025, although with enormous uncertainty.​

Pessimistic scenario: part of the market warns of the risk of much deeper falls if risk aversion worsens, with some analysts citing even levels close to ten thousand dollars as an extreme scenario, although unlikely.​

Position size: it is recommended to hold crypto as a limited slice (many sources quote up to 10% of the total portfolio, and less for conservative profiles) so that a 50% drop does not destroy your financial plan.​

Strategy: Instead of trying to guess the bottom line, techniques such as periodic contributions (DCA), clear rebalancing rules, and loss limits per trade help reduce impulse decisions.​

Protection: avoiding leverage, keeping an emergency reserve outside of crypto, and, if necessary, migrating part of very risky altcoins to more solid assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, or large stablecoins) can make the wallet more resilient.​

High volatility should continue: cycles of “violent rises followed by rapid falls” tend to remain as the market seeks a new equilibrium after the 2025 crash.​

The macro rules a lot: Fed decisions on interest rates, employment data, inflation, and the climate in technology and AI stocks will continue to affect the appetite for crypto.​

For the long-term investor, the most prudent focus is to have an allocation plan (both in crypto and outside), respecting your risk profile and accepting that the path to any new high can be long and full of ups and downs.​

If you want, you can put together an objective plan: maximum percentage of crypto within your assets, how much to put in Bitcoin vs. other currencies, and simple rebalancing rules for the next 6–12 months.

Check my Farcaster and Base App