A-shares have also fallen badly recently.

Only by overcoming the weaknesses of human nature and maintaining a good attitude can you have a chance to survive in the stock market for a long time.

From the high of 3174 in May, it has fallen to the current 2736. It has basically been falling for almost 4 months in a row, and it is approaching the low of 2635 before the Spring Festival.

And unlike the wave of decline before the Spring Festival, this wave of decline is basically a continuous decline in volume, which is more torturous for people in the market. It is not as easy as the rapid decline in volume before the Spring Festival.

This kind of shrinking and falling market situation is also a very tangled question for those who still hold funds outside the market, whether to buy the bottom.

Therefore, it is now a huge test for those who hold shares on the market and those who hold currencies outside the market, and it is a test of people's patience.

Regular readers should know that I have been focusing on reminding stock market risks in the past four years.

But generally, when the stock market continues to rise sharply, I will increase risk warnings.

After the stock market plummeted continuously, I will also provide psychological massage to everyone.

I will not be blindly bearish, nor will I be blindly bullish.

The last time I wrote a separate article to remind everyone about the risks of the stock market was on August 4 last year. A state media outlet said that "letting residents make money through stock funds is a necessary move to expand consumption."

This is equivalent to calling for a bull market to promote consumption.

Because the official media published that report, many people always have some blind fantasies and feel that a big bull market is about to start, so they can’t wait to rush into the stock market.

Therefore, on August 4 last year, I wrote a special article to refute the statement that the bull market promotes consumption. The main reason is that I do not want everyone to have the illusion that a big bull market is about to happen, and do not rush into the stock market based on this illusion. .

Everyone knows the result later. After the stock market hit a high of 3315 on August 4, 2023, it fell all the way to a low of 2635 before the Spring Festival.

This shows that the risk warning I made a year ago was relatively timely.

Then, before the Spring Festival, the stock market fell below 2,700 points, and I started to give everyone psychological massage.

This is my style. When the stock market is high, I will remind you of risks, and when the stock market is low, I will give you psychological massage.

Since August last year, the stock market as a whole has been falling. Although there was a rebound after the Spring Festival, it only rebounded to the position of 3174. It did not reach the position where I think I need to warn of risks, and it immediately started to fall again, and it has fallen all the way to today. .

Considering that this wave of decline has been characterized by shrinkage, I am actually more cautious about whether to write a separate stock market analysis with you now.

From my original intention, I don’t think it’s time yet for me to write a long article analyzing the stock market alone, but I think it should be time for me to write it soon.

In addition, from the perspective of some readers who need psychological massage from me, I think I still have to write about it.

However, I still have to emphasize that I usually only remind people of risks when I think there is a greater risk, such as August 4 last year.

Or I will do psychological massage with you only when I think there is a greater chance, such as before the Spring Festival this year.

In fact, I am not too sure about my current position, so this article is a warning to everyone in advance, not a psychological massage.

(2)

When I write stock market analysis now, I dare not use too certain statements. This is also the loss suffered in March 2020.

Old readers should know.

Since August 2019, I have written articles about the possible outbreak of a world financial crisis.

Therefore, the flash crash of the global financial market in March 2020 also made me very certain that the world financial crisis in my judgment has already broken out.

Therefore, on March 20, 2020, the Federal Reserve began printing unlimited money to rescue the market. I also underestimated the power of the Fed’s unlimited money printing and misjudged the stock market at that time.

This also caused me to attract a lot of negative fans at the time.

In 2020, the reason why I warned about the risks in the stock market is mainly because I believe that there is a risk of a world financial crisis.

But I am not blindly bearish on the stock market at a low level.

In October 2018, when the market fell below 2,500, I wrote that you can buy the bottom of the stock market without thinking.

But in April 2019, after the market rose above 3200, I started to be bearish on the stock market and warned of the risks of the stock market.

In March 2020, after the global stock market crashed, when the market fell below 2,800, I also said that I would not recommend cutting stocks below 2,800.

I mentioned at that time that if it fell below 2600, it would be an opportunity.

As a result, some anti-fans distorted my wishes, and in their words, it turned out that I was short the stock market at 2600 points.

There are also some readers who have fallen into a state of panic because of the terrifying power of the global flash crash at that time. Some of them cut their flesh and then blamed me for causing them to sell out.

But I have clearly said that it is not recommended to cut meat below 2800 points.

It’s just that stock trading is like this, and what is being speculated on is human nature.

When many people lose money, they often don't look for the reasons within themselves, but only blame others.

However, the lessons I learned in March 2020 also made me understand that I should not be too certain when publicly publishing stock reviews.

After all, I cannot guarantee that I am 100% right. No one can predict the financial market 100%, so I cannot tell everyone how to do it with certainty.

Therefore, since then, my style of writing stock reviews has changed slightly, and my tone is less certain. This is also because I want to give everyone more space for independent thinking, and I don't want my opinions to affect everyone's own operations too much.

Moreover, when I write a long stock review article, I will analyze my thoughts clearly in detail.

This is also to prevent someone from maliciously distorting my views and ideas, and also to prevent some readers from not understanding what I said or misunderstanding what I said.

A few days ago, another reader asked me if the stock market will fall even lower, should I cut off the meat first and pick it back up later?

First of all, I have to emphasize that I do not recommend doing this at all.

Judging from my more than ten years of stock trading experience, 99% of retail investors do not perform such difficult operations well.

For retail investors, they have fallen to this point. If they have not been able to control their positions before, they can only pretend to be dead and wait patiently for the arrival of dawn.

As long as they don't add leverage and don't step on individual stocks, retail investors can get through it.

This is why I have always only recommended that you buy broad-based index funds such as the CSI 300. This is indeed more suitable for retail investors to spend the winter during the historical bottom-out cycle.

Although I have experienced misjudgments in 2020, I have been reminding everyone of the risks in the stock market in the past few years.

The stock market will rise much more in 2021, so I will remind you more clearly in 2021.

After 2022, the stock market is basically dead, so I won’t be so strong in constantly reminding people of risks. This is also because I don’t want some readers to misinterpret my meaning, cut flesh at the bottom, and expand this emotional panic.

But basically, the stock market has risen to highs several times, such as 3,400 in May last year, and the stamp duty was reduced last year. Many people are calling bull, but I am reminding everyone that the stamp duty reduction will be conducive to long-term selling by large funds. Yes, this is not a benefit.

Judging from the current trend of A-shares, at least I can say with a clear conscience that the risks I have warned about A-shares in the past few years are not wrong.

In the final analysis, the stock market is a high-risk place. If we want to survive in the stock market, we must increase our risk awareness and put risk awareness first.

But now the stock market has fallen below 2800 points.

I still said what I said 4 years ago: below 2800 points, I do not recommend cutting meat.

Don't let anyone come to blame me when they cut off their flesh because they can't stand the stock market drop or because they are panicking.

This is something I need to emphasize clearly today.

In the current position, whether to leave or stay is something that everyone needs to choose carefully.

I can only tell you that I have been waiting for the historical bottom for 4 years, and now I can see some dawn.

For many people, this is the darkest hour before dawn.

But for me, this was the moment I saw the light.

The darkness before dawn is the darkest, but for those who are prepared, if they can take a longer view, in the darkest moment before dawn, they can already see the dawn is coming.

Because the earth is not flat.

When you stand high enough and look far enough, you can see the dawn earlier than others.

So, when we are in the darkest moment before dawn, let yourself stand higher and see further.

In this way, it will not be easy to only see darkness and lose the confidence to continue to persevere.

I am not making chicken soup for the soul by saying this.

I told you 4 years ago that I kept reminding you of risks when the stock market was at a high level just so that when the historical bottom came, I would have more confidence to give you psychological massage.

Therefore, I can only tell you now that I cannot guarantee whether the market will fall below 2635 points. It is possible that it will not fall below.

But I can only say that if the market falls below 2635 points, it is by no means a moment of despair for us. Instead, we should see opportunities and see the dawn.

If the market falls below 2635 points, I will start taking action and continue the grid-based operation of adding positions before the Spring Festival.

At least, this is an opportunity for me.

(3)

The operation plan I formulated before the Spring Festival:

If the CSI 300 falls to 3200 points, increase the position by 5%, increasing the position from 30% to 35%;

If the CSI 300 falls to 3100 points, increase the position by 5%, increasing the position from 35% to 40%;

If the CSI 300 falls by 3,000 points, add another 5% to the position, increasing the position from 40% to 45%;

And so on.

The lowest before the Spring Festival was 3108. I increased my position to 40% as planned, but I haven't done anything yet.

Therefore, unless the CSI 300 falls below 3100 points in this wave, I will not operate.

This is not to say that I think the CSI 300 will definitely fall below 3100 in this wave. I am just talking about my operation plan in advance.

If it falls to the position, I will increase the position as planned.

If the price does not fall to the extreme, I will hold the stock with my current position and wait for the price to rise.

In the stock market, the most important thing is not to be greedy.

Only if you are not greedy will you have the opportunity to make money.

According to the grid-based position increase idea I formulated before the Spring Festival, if the CSI 300 falls to 3,000 points, I will add another 5% to the position, increasing the position from 40% to 45%;

The further it goes down, the more I increase my position.

This is the idea of ​​adding positions in a grid manner.

At least for broad-based index funds like the CSI 300, I’m still more daring to buy more as they fall.

Currently, the CSI 300 has fallen to 3192, which is not far from the low of 3108 before the Spring Festival.

If the CSI 300 falls below the pre-Chinese New Year low, I will continue to add positions on a grid basis.

Here, I only recommend two modes: grid-based position addition and fixed investment.

Grid-based position addition means that every time the index drops by a certain number of points, a certain number of positions will be added. This is based on the idea of ​​adding positions in space.

Fixed investment means adding a certain number of positions every certain period of time, which is the idea of ​​adding positions according to time.

At present, I have continued to invest in the CSI 300 Index, but the intensity of fixed investment is relatively small. I can probably hold a 20% position in two years.

With small, long-term investments, the risk is relatively low and controllable.

My fixed investment is an over-the-counter index fund. The operation is programmed and the money is automatically deducted. I basically don’t look at it, which saves trouble.

When adding positions in a grid manner, I do it manually on the market, which is more flexible.

Currently I only have these two going at the same time.

In December 2021, A-shares started to fall in this quarter-level main decline, starting from 3708 points.

It has been falling for almost two years now.

In April 2022, when A-shares fell below 3,000 points, I reminded everyone that we have now entered a historical bottoming cycle. This bottoming cycle may last 2-3 years, so everyone must do Be prepared for a long and protracted war.

Looking at it now, my judgment has basically come true.

Now is the bottoming cycle of the historical bottom.

But as for this historical bottom, in addition to grinding the bottom, whether there will be a sharp bottom low enough to allow us to have the opportunity to buy heavy positions without thinking, I think this needs more observation.

I don’t dare to guarantee that this historical bottom-end opportunity that I have been waiting for will appear.

But at least I have always reserved at least half a position to wait for the sharp bottom opportunity of this historical bottom.

Moreover, learning from the lessons of March 2020, before such a sharp bottom opportunity comes out, I will adopt a grid-based method of adding positions and long-term small additional investments at the same time, and slowly increase the position to 50% of the position.

Therefore, before the historical bottom comes out, the 50% position is already a top position for me.

If you want me to increase my position by more than 50%, one of the following three conditions must be met.

1. The world financial crisis broke out, and global stock markets suffered a sharp decline.

2. A-shares have fallen to a low enough level that even I can’t help but feel moved.

3. Historical events happen.

As long as one of these three occurs, I will consider increasing the position to more than half based on the actual situation.

Before that, I would reserve half of my position to guard against some extreme risks.

I am a relatively conservative and cautious person, and I do not force others to be as conservative and cautious as me.

Let me emphasize again, although such a historical bottom is an opportunity for those of us who have been holding funds and waiting, if we are impatient and enter the market prematurely, then the opportunity will also turn into a crisis.

In crisis, there is opportunity.

But if you want to turn a crisis into an opportunity, you must be patient.

When it fell below 3,000 points twice in 2022, including when it fell below 2,700 points before the Spring Festival, when I was giving psychological massage to everyone, I repeatedly emphasized that everyone needs to be patient and not to lag too often.

In such a historical bottom-out cycle, there are plenty of opportunities for us to get on the bus, and the party will eventually win, so we don’t have to worry about missing the opportunity if we can’t get on the bus.

If there is a chance of a big drop or a chance of picking up bargains, we can just slowly enter the market and add positions. We should operate according to the plan and do not operate emotionally.

Stock trading is about human nature and mentality.

A-shares have also fallen badly recently.

Only by overcoming the weaknesses of human nature and maintaining a good attitude can you have a chance to survive in the stock market for a long time.

From the high of 3174 in May, it has fallen to the current 2736. It has basically been falling for almost 4 months in a row, and it is approaching the low of 2635 before the Spring Festival.

And unlike the wave of decline before the Spring Festival, this wave of decline is basically a continuous decline in volume, which is more torturous for people in the market. It is not as easy as the rapid decline in volume before the Spring Festival.

This kind of shrinking and falling market situation is also a very tangled question for those who still hold funds outside the market, whether to buy the bottom.

Therefore, it is now a huge test for those who hold shares on the market and those who hold currencies outside the market, and it is a test of people's patience.

Regular readers should know that I have been focusing on reminding stock market risks in the past four years.

But generally, when the stock market continues to rise sharply, I will increase risk warnings.

After the stock market plummeted continuously, I will also provide psychological massage to everyone.

I will not be blindly bearish, nor will I be blindly bullish.

The last time I wrote a separate article to remind everyone about the risks of the stock market was on August 4 last year. A state media outlet said that "letting residents make money through stock funds is a necessary move to expand consumption."

This is equivalent to calling for a bull market to promote consumption.

Because the official media published that report, many people always have some blind fantasies and feel that a big bull market is about to start, so they can’t wait to rush into the stock market.

Therefore, on August 4 last year, I wrote a special article to refute the statement that the bull market promotes consumption. The main reason is that I do not want everyone to have the illusion that a big bull market is about to happen, and do not rush into the stock market based on this illusion. .

Everyone knows the result later. After the stock market hit a high of 3315 on August 4, 2023, it fell all the way to a low of 2635 before the Spring Festival.

This shows that the risk warning I made a year ago was relatively timely.

Then, before the Spring Festival, the stock market fell below 2,700 points, and I started to give everyone psychological massage.

This is my style. When the stock market is high, I will remind you of risks, and when the stock market is low, I will give you psychological massage.

Since August last year, the stock market as a whole has been falling. Although there was a rebound after the Spring Festival, it only rebounded to the position of 3174. It did not reach the position where I think I need to warn of risks, and it immediately started to fall again, and it has fallen all the way to today. .

Considering that this wave of decline has been characterized by shrinkage, I am actually more cautious about whether to write a separate stock market analysis with you now.

From my original intention, I don’t think it’s time yet for me to write a long article analyzing the stock market alone, but I think it should be time for me to write it soon.

In addition, from the perspective of some readers who need psychological massage from me, I think I still have to write about it.

However, I still have to emphasize that I usually only remind people of risks when I think there is a greater risk, such as August 4 last year.

Or I will do psychological massage with you only when I think there is a greater chance, such as before the Spring Festival this year.

In fact, I am not too sure about my current position, so this article is a warning to everyone in advance, not a psychological massage.

(2)

When I write stock market analysis now, I dare not use too certain statements. This is also the loss suffered in March 2020.

Old readers should know.

Since August 2019, I have written articles about the possible outbreak of a world financial crisis.

Therefore, the flash crash of the global financial market in March 2020 also made me very certain that the world financial crisis in my judgment has already broken out.

Therefore, on March 20, 2020, the Federal Reserve began printing unlimited money to rescue the market. I also underestimated the power of the Fed’s unlimited money printing and misjudged the stock market at that time.

This also caused me to attract a lot of negative fans at the time.

In 2020, the reason why I warned about the risks in the stock market is mainly because I believe that there is a risk of a world financial crisis.

But I am not blindly bearish on the stock market at a low level.

In October 2018, when the market fell below 2,500, I wrote that you can buy the bottom of the stock market without thinking.

But in April 2019, after the market rose above 3200, I started to be bearish on the stock market and warned of the risks of the stock market.

In March 2020, after the global stock market crashed, when the market fell below 2,800, I also said that I would not recommend cutting stocks below 2,800.

I mentioned at that time that if it fell below 2600, it would be an opportunity.

As a result, some anti-fans distorted my wishes, and in their words, it turned out that I was short the stock market at 2600 points.

There are also some readers who have fallen into a state of panic because of the terrifying power of the global flash crash at that time. Some of them cut their flesh and then blamed me for causing them to sell out.

But I have clearly said that it is not recommended to cut meat below 2800 points.

It’s just that stock trading is like this, and what is being speculated on is human nature.

When many people lose money, they often don't look for the reasons within themselves, but only blame others.

However, the lessons I learned in March 2020 also made me understand that I should not be too certain when publicly publishing stock reviews.

After all, I cannot guarantee that I am 100% right. No one can predict the financial market 100%, so I cannot tell everyone how to do it with certainty.

Therefore, since then, my style of writing stock reviews has changed slightly, and my tone is less certain. This is also because I want to give everyone more space for independent thinking, and I don't want my opinions to affect everyone's own operations too much.

Moreover, when I write a long stock review article, I will analyze my thoughts clearly in detail.

This is also to prevent someone from maliciously distorting my views and ideas, and also to prevent some readers from not understanding what I said or misunderstanding what I said.

A few days ago, another reader asked me if the stock market will fall even lower, should I cut off the meat first and pick it back up later?

First of all, I have to emphasize that I do not recommend doing this at all.

Judging from my more than ten years of stock trading experience, 99% of retail investors do not perform such difficult operations well.

For retail investors, they have fallen to this point. If they have not been able to control their positions before, they can only pretend to be dead and wait patiently for the arrival of dawn.

As long as they don't add leverage and don't step on individual stocks, retail investors can get through it.

This is why I have always only recommended that you buy broad-based index funds such as the CSI 300. This is indeed more suitable for retail investors to spend the winter during the historical bottom-out cycle.

Although I have experienced misjudgments in 2020, I have been reminding everyone of the risks in the stock market in the past few years.

The stock market will rise much more in 2021, so I will remind you more clearly in 2021.

After 2022, the stock market is basically dead, so I won’t be so strong in constantly reminding people of risks. This is also because I don’t want some readers to misinterpret my meaning, cut flesh at the bottom, and expand this emotional panic.

But basically, the stock market has risen to highs several times, such as 3,400 in May last year, and the stamp duty was reduced last year. Many people are calling bull, but I am reminding everyone that the stamp duty reduction will be conducive to long-term selling by large funds. Yes, this is not a benefit.

Judging from the current trend of A-shares, at least I can say with a clear conscience that the risks I have warned about A-shares in the past few years are not wrong.

In the final analysis, the stock market is a high-risk place. If we want to survive in the stock market, we must increase our risk awareness and put risk awareness first.

But now the stock market has fallen below 2800 points.

I still said what I said 4 years ago: below 2800 points, I do not recommend cutting meat.

Don't let anyone come to blame me when they cut off their flesh because they can't stand the stock market drop or because they are panicking.

This is something I need to emphasize clearly today.

In the current position, whether to leave or stay is something that everyone needs to choose carefully.

I can only tell you that I have been waiting for the historical bottom for 4 years, and now I can see some dawn.

For many people, this is the darkest hour before dawn.

But for me, this was the moment I saw the light.

The darkness before dawn is the darkest, but for those who are prepared, if they can take a longer view, in the darkest moment before dawn, they can already see the dawn is coming.

Because the earth is not flat.

When you stand high enough and look far enough, you can see the dawn earlier than others.

So, when we are in the darkest moment before dawn, let yourself stand higher and see further.

In this way, it will not be easy to only see darkness and lose the confidence to continue to persevere.

I am not making chicken soup for the soul by saying this.

I told you 4 years ago that I kept reminding you of risks when the stock market was at a high level just so that when the historical bottom came, I would have more confidence to give you psychological massage.

Therefore, I can only tell you now that I cannot guarantee whether the market will fall below 2635 points. It is possible that it will not fall below.

But I can only say that if the market falls below 2635 points, it is by no means a moment of despair for us. Instead, we should see opportunities and see the dawn.

If the market falls below 2635 points, I will start taking action and continue the grid-based operation of adding positions before the Spring Festival.

At least, this is an opportunity for me.

(3)

The operation plan I formulated before the Spring Festival:

If the CSI 300 falls to 3200 points, increase the position by 5%, increasing the position from 30% to 35%;

If the CSI 300 falls to 3100 points, increase the position by 5%, increasing the position from 35% to 40%;

If the CSI 300 falls by 3,000 points, add another 5% to the position, increasing the position from 40% to 45%;

And so on.

The lowest before the Spring Festival was 3108. I increased my position to 40% as planned, but I haven't done anything yet.

Therefore, unless the CSI 300 falls below 3100 points in this wave, I will not operate.

This is not to say that I think the CSI 300 will definitely fall below 3100 in this wave. I am just talking about my operation plan in advance.

If it falls to the position, I will increase the position as planned.

If the price does not fall to the extreme, I will hold the stock with my current position and wait for the price to rise.

In the stock market, the most important thing is not to be greedy.

Only if you are not greedy will you have the opportunity to make money.

According to the grid-based position increase idea I formulated before the Spring Festival, if the CSI 300 falls to 3,000 points, I will add another 5% to the position, increasing the position from 40% to 45%;

The further it goes down, the more I increase my position.

This is the idea of ​​adding positions in a grid manner.

At least for broad-based index funds like the CSI 300, I’m still more daring to buy more as they fall.

Currently, the CSI 300 has fallen to 3192, which is not far from the low of 3108 before the Spring Festival.

If the CSI 300 falls below the pre-Chinese New Year low, I will continue to add positions on a grid basis.

Here, I only recommend two modes: grid-based position addition and fixed investment.

Grid-based position addition means that every time the index drops by a certain number of points, a certain number of positions will be added. This is based on the idea of ​​adding positions in space.

Fixed investment means adding a certain number of positions every certain period of time, which is the idea of ​​adding positions according to time.

At present, I have continued to invest in the CSI 300 Index, but the intensity of fixed investment is relatively small. I can probably hold a 20% position in two years.

With small, long-term investments, the risk is relatively low and controllable.

My fixed investment is an over-the-counter index fund. The operation is programmed and the money is automatically deducted. I basically don’t look at it, which saves trouble.

When adding positions in a grid manner, I do it manually on the market, which is more flexible.

Currently I only have these two going at the same time.

In December 2021, A-shares started to fall in this quarter-level main decline, starting from 3708 points.

It has been falling for almost two years now.

In April 2022, when A-shares fell below 3,000 points, I reminded everyone that we have now entered a historical bottoming cycle. This bottoming cycle may last 2-3 years, so everyone must do Be prepared for a long and protracted war.

Looking at it now, my judgment has basically come true.

Now is the bottoming cycle of the historical bottom.

But as for this historical bottom, in addition to grinding the bottom, whether there will be a sharp bottom low enough to allow us to have the opportunity to buy heavy positions without thinking, I think this needs more observation.

I don’t dare to guarantee that this historical bottom-end opportunity that I have been waiting for will appear.

But at least I have always reserved at least half a position to wait for the sharp bottom opportunity of this historical bottom.

Moreover, learning from the lessons of March 2020, before such a sharp bottom opportunity comes out, I will adopt a grid-based method of adding positions and long-term small additional investments at the same time, and slowly increase the position to 50% of the position.

Therefore, before the historical bottom comes out, the 50% position is already a top position for me.

If you want me to increase my position by more than 50%, one of the following three conditions must be met.

1. The world financial crisis broke out, and global stock markets suffered a sharp decline.

2. A-shares have fallen to a low enough level that even I can’t help but feel moved.

3. Historical events happen.

As long as one of these three occurs, I will consider increasing the position to more than half based on the actual situation.

Before that, I would reserve half of my position to guard against some extreme risks.

I am a relatively conservative and cautious person, and I do not force others to be as conservative and cautious as me.

Let me emphasize again, although such a historical bottom is an opportunity for those of us who have been holding funds and waiting, if we are impatient and enter the market prematurely, then the opportunity will also turn into a crisis.

In crisis, there is opportunity.

But if you want to turn a crisis into an opportunity, you must be patient.

When it fell below 3,000 points twice in 2022, including when it fell below 2,700 points before the Spring Festival, when I was giving psychological massage to everyone, I repeatedly emphasized that everyone needs to be patient and not to lag too often.

In such a historical bottom-out cycle, there are plenty of opportunities for us to get on the bus, and the party will eventually win, so we don’t have to worry about missing the opportunity if we can’t get on the bus.

If there is a chance of a big drop or a chance of picking up bargains, we can just slowly enter the market and add positions. We should operate according to the plan and do not operate emotionally.

Stock trading is about human nature and mentality.