Although the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States in April fell compared with last month, the decline was less than expected

The US Non seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate in April released at 20:30 on Wednesday recorded 8.3%, down from the previous value of 8.50%, but higher than the expected 8.10%. The monthly rate of CPI in the United States after the quarter adjustment in April recorded 0.30%, higher than the expected 0.20%, significantly lower than the previous value of 1.20%.

In addition, excluding volatile food and energy prices, the US core CPI rose 6.2% in April, higher than the expected 6%. The monthly rate of core CPI in April was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.4%. CNBC commented that inflation has always been the biggest threat to the economic recovery. Rising prices at gas stations and grocery stores are a problem, but inflation has spread to real estate, car sales and many other fields.

After the data was released, spot gold went out of the deep V trend, fell $15 in the short term and hit $1834.83 as low as $1834.83. After that, it recovered all its lost ground and rebounded above the 1850 mark.

The dollar index once rose nearly 40 points in the short term, standing at the 104 mark, and several non-U.S. currencies fell sharply. The pound fell 60 points against the US dollar in the short term and the euro fell 40 points against the US dollar in the short term; The US dollar rose 50 points against the Japanese yen in the short term, and the US dollar rose more than 40 points against the Canadian dollar in the short term, standing at 1.30. The yield of 10-year US bonds rose in the short term, breaking through the 3% mark. The three major stock index futures of US stocks fell sharply just after the data was released. But at present, these markets have reversed.

At present, the pound has hit 1.24 against the US dollar, up 0.63% within the day; The US dollar continued to fall against the Canadian dollar, down more than 100 points from its previous high; The Australian dollar expanded to 1.50% against the US dollar.

Although the latest report shows that US inflation may have peaked, these data highlight the extent of price increases in the economy, coupled with strong wage growth, indicating that high inflation will continue for some time.

Tony Roth, chief investment officer of Wilmington trust investment advisors, previously warned that US inflation still faces two potential exogenous risks. First, the unknown factors surrounding the tight energy supply and price impact caused by the Russian Ukrainian crisis; The second is the shutdown related to the epidemic and its impact on the supply chain. Roth said:

“No one knows how they will develop, and any one of them may become a bigger problem than the current market expectation.”

After the data were released, the money market increased its bet on the Fed’s interest rate hike, which was 70 basis points in June, up from 68 basis points previously. Overnight, Cleveland Fed chairman mester said that before the Fed slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes, it needed to see convincing signs of slowing inflation. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said:

“This high inflation figure has greatly reduced the hope of many investors that the United States has reached the peak of inflation. Therefore, the Fed will remain hawkish and may reconsider raising interest rates by 75 basis points.”

Analyst ven also said that the latest US inflation data will rekindle the market discussion on the Fed’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points. Even if we may need to see more data showing high inflation, the Fed will consider such a substantial interest rate hike. At present, the market expects the fed to raise interest rates by nearly 200 basis points for the rest of the year, compared with 185 basis points earlier.

However, analyst Stephani believes that the Fed will not consider raising interest rates by 75 basis points again, as Fed chairman Powell rejected this idea last week. However, if core inflation does not ease as expected, there is a great possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points later this year.

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