Why DCF Beats Multiples for $HYPE
Most exchange tokens are valued like tech stocks—slap an EBITDA multiple on Coinbase or Robinhood and call it a day.
$HYPE is different. Ninety-three per cent of HyperLiquid’s trading fees flow straight to token-holders through the Assistance Fund (AF). That is a programmable dividend, not a board-room maybe. Discounted-cash-flow (DCF) therefore captures the economics far better than any static comp.

Step 1 – Picking a Discount Rate
We start with a classic CAPM build-up:
Cost of equity = risk-free + β × equity-risk-premium + crypto-illiquidity-premium

Regression vs. the S&P 500 gives:

• Robinhood β = 2.5 → 15.6 % cost

• Coinbase β = 2.0 → 13.6 %

• $HYPE β = 1.38 → 10.5 %

But R² for $HYPE is only 5 %—equity-market factors explain almost nothing. After bumping for regulatory, smart-contract and liquidity risks we land on a 13 % discount rate—slightly below COIN, well above a vanilla tech stock.

Step 2 – What $54 HYPE Implies
Reverse-engineining today’s token price (~$54) with a 13 % discount rate and a 3 % terminal-growth prints the market-implied path:

• 2025 fee pool: US-$ 0.7 bn

• 2026 fee pool: US-$ 1.4 bn

• 2027+ : 3 % annual growth

In short, the market is pricing in steady—but hardly explosive—growth from current levels.

Step 3 – Bull-Case Scenarios
Using @Keisan_Crypto’s volume projections:

Two-Year Bull

• Annual fees: US-$ 3.6 bn

• AF cash-flow: 93 % × 3.6 bn = US-$ 3.35 bn

• DCF value per token: US-$ 128
  → 140 % upside vs. today

Five-Year Bull

• Annual fees: US-$ 10 bn

• AF cash-flow: US-$ 9.3 bn

• DCF value per token: US-$ 385
  → 600 % upside

We taper growth to 3 % after year-5; Keisan uses a terminal multiple, which can flatter fair value. Either way, the token looks cheap.

Step 4 – The USDH Kicker
HyperLiquid’s native stable-coin USDH will ship 50 % of its net interest to the AF (similar to Maker’s Smart-Burn engine).

If USDH matures at US-$ 25 bn supply (one-third of USDC today) and yields 4 %, that is US-$ 1 bn annual interest → US-$ 0.5 bn extra cash-flow to HYPE.
Layer that into the five-year model and fair value edges past US-$ 400.

Step 5 – Optionality We Left Out

• HIP-3 (validator incentives)

• HyperEVM (L2 execution layer)
  Both could create additional fee streams or token sink, but they are too speculative to model as cash today. Treat them as free call-options on top of the base case.

Bottom Line
Programmatic cash distribution makes $HYPE one of the few crypto assets you can value like a stock. Even under conservative growth and a 13 % cost of equity, the token screens significantly undervalued. If HyperLiquid captures even a slice of the bull-case volume—and USDH scales—a triple-digit token price is arithmetic, not fantasy.

Why DCF Beats Multiples for $HYPE
Most exchange tokens are valued like tech stocks—slap an EBITDA multiple on Coinbase or Robinhood and call it a day.
$HYPE is different. Ninety-three per cent of HyperLiquid’s trading fees flow straight to token-holders through the Assistance Fund (AF). That is a programmable dividend, not a board-room maybe. Discounted-cash-flow (DCF) therefore captures the economics far better than any static comp.

Step 1 – Picking a Discount Rate
We start with a classic CAPM build-up:
Cost of equity = risk-free + β × equity-risk-premium + crypto-illiquidity-premium

Regression vs. the S&P 500 gives:

• Robinhood β = 2.5 → 15.6 % cost

• Coinbase β = 2.0 → 13.6 %

• $HYPE β = 1.38 → 10.5 %

But R² for $HYPE is only 5 %—equity-market factors explain almost nothing. After bumping for regulatory, smart-contract and liquidity risks we land on a 13 % discount rate—slightly below COIN, well above a vanilla tech stock.

Step 2 – What $54 HYPE Implies
Reverse-engineining today’s token price (~$54) with a 13 % discount rate and a 3 % terminal-growth prints the market-implied path:

• 2025 fee pool: US-$ 0.7 bn

• 2026 fee pool: US-$ 1.4 bn

• 2027+ : 3 % annual growth

In short, the market is pricing in steady—but hardly explosive—growth from current levels.

Step 3 – Bull-Case Scenarios
Using @Keisan_Crypto’s volume projections:

Two-Year Bull

• Annual fees: US-$ 3.6 bn

• AF cash-flow: 93 % × 3.6 bn = US-$ 3.35 bn

• DCF value per token: US-$ 128
  → 140 % upside vs. today

Five-Year Bull

• Annual fees: US-$ 10 bn

• AF cash-flow: US-$ 9.3 bn

• DCF value per token: US-$ 385
  → 600 % upside

We taper growth to 3 % after year-5; Keisan uses a terminal multiple, which can flatter fair value. Either way, the token looks cheap.

Step 4 – The USDH Kicker
HyperLiquid’s native stable-coin USDH will ship 50 % of its net interest to the AF (similar to Maker’s Smart-Burn engine).

If USDH matures at US-$ 25 bn supply (one-third of USDC today) and yields 4 %, that is US-$ 1 bn annual interest → US-$ 0.5 bn extra cash-flow to HYPE.
Layer that into the five-year model and fair value edges past US-$ 400.

Step 5 – Optionality We Left Out

• HIP-3 (validator incentives)

• HyperEVM (L2 execution layer)
  Both could create additional fee streams or token sink, but they are too speculative to model as cash today. Treat them as free call-options on top of the base case.

Bottom Line
Programmatic cash distribution makes $HYPE one of the few crypto assets you can value like a stock. Even under conservative growth and a 13 % cost of equity, the token screens significantly undervalued. If HyperLiquid captures even a slice of the bull-case volume—and USDH scales—a triple-digit token price is arithmetic, not fantasy.