Current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has emerged as the hottest candidate for the next Fed Chair, topping the list with a 30% probability on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Waller’s academic background and technocratic qualities give him three key advantages:

1. Flexible and Pragmatic Monetary Policy: His approach is not ideologically driven but adjusts based on economic data. He supported rate cuts in 2019, advocated for hikes in 2022, and was among the first governors to endorse cuts in 2025.

2. Strong Political Compatibility: Nominated by Trump but not seen as a close ally, he maintains a technocratically neutral image amid bipartisan competition, making him acceptable to all sides.

3. Openness to Crypto Technology: He opposes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), supports the development of private stablecoins, and advocates for Congressional legislation over agency power expansion, offering potential policy opportunities for stablecoins and DeFi.

If Waller takes office, the crypto market could see clearer regulatory frameworks, a more relaxed environment for mainstream assets, and increased dialogue between central banks and innovative technologies. Though the outcome is uncertain, the market already views him as a predictable, low-political-risk choice.

Summary
Written by Ethan, Odaily Daily

In the early hours of September 12 Beijing time, the U.S. federal funds rate market sent a strong signal: there was a 93.9% probability that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at this month’s meeting. After five consecutive pauses, the market finally saw a directional shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, another赌局 quietly advanced, one that will shape the Fed’s trajectory over the next two years: Who will succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair?

On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of the same day, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller led with 30% odds, ahead of the other two “Kevin camp” contenders—Hassett (16%) and Warsh (15%). However, the market also left room for a more dramatic possibility: “Trump will not announce a successor by year-end” remained the top bet at 41%.

These figures suggest the market is betting on two fronts: one is the consensus on rate cuts, and the other is the uncertain race for the monetary helm. Between them, Waller’s name repeatedly appears in trading views and policy games.

Why Is the Market Starting to ‘Believe in Waller’?
The Story of an ‘Atypical Fed Governor’: How a Small-Town Professor Rose to Prominence
Waller’s background and career are unconventional in the Fed system. He didn’t attend an Ivy League school or hold senior roles at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. Born in a Nebraska town with fewer than 8,000 people, he earned his economics degree from Bemidji State University. In 1985, he received a Ph.D. in economics from Washington State University and began a long academic career, teaching and researching at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Notre Dame for 24 years.

He spent 24 years studying monetary theory, focusing on central bank independence, tenure systems, and market coordination mechanisms. In 2009, he left academia to join the St. Louis Fed as research director. In 2019, Trump nominated him to the Fed Board, a controversial and difficult confirmation process that ultimately succeeded by a narrow 48–47 Senate vote on December 3, 2020. At 61, Waller was older than most governors when he joined the top decision-making layer, but this became an advantage: he had few burdens, owed no favors to Wall Street, and understood from his time at the St. Louis Fed that the Fed isn’t monolithic—different voices are not only tolerated but sometimes encouraged.

This path gave him both professional judgment and freedom of expression without being labeled a代言人 for any faction. From Trump’s perspective, such a figure might be easier to “pick up and use”; in the market’s eyes, such a candidate means “less uncertainty.”

But in a power transition game intertwined with bureaucracy and political will, Waller isn’t naturally the kind of candidate the market rallies behind. His career path is relatively academic and technical; he’s neither known for public rhetoric nor a frequent face on financial TV.

Yet, he has gradually become a “consensus candidate” frequently mentioned in market tools and political commentary. The reason lies in his triple compatibility:

1. Flexible but non-opportunistic monetary policy style:
   Waller is neither a typical “inflation hawk” nor a proponent of loose money. He argues policy should respond to economic conditions: supporting rate cuts in 2019 to preempt recession, endorsing rapid hikes in 2022 to curb inflation, and in 2025, as the economy slowed and inflation fell, he was among the first governors to vote for cuts. This “non-ideological” policy style is稀缺 in today’s highly politicized Fed landscape.

2. Clear political relationships and a clean technocratic image:
   Nominated by Trump in 2020, Waller is one of the few Republican monetary policy officials who can achieve “technical neutrality” and “political compatibility.” He isn’t seen as “Trump’s close ally” nor rejected by the party establishment, giving him broader political maneuvering room in intense partisan competition.

   Unlike the鲜明立场 and strong alignment of Hassett or the close Wall Street ties of Warsh, Waller exhibits purer technocratic traits. He’s more easily seen as “a trustworthy professional.” In the highly polarized U.S. political environment, this de-ideologized, competency-based image makes him a steady, widely acceptable appointment.

3. Tolerance toward crypto technology within the system:
   Waller isn’t a “crypto believer,” but he’s one of the most vocal Fed officials on topics like stablecoins, AI payments, and tokenization. He doesn’t advocate government-led innovation and opposes CBDCs, but supports private stablecoins as tools for payment efficiency, proposing that “the government should build the underlying infrastructure like highways and leave the rest to the market.”

   Between traditional finance and digital assets, compared to other candidates, he may be the only Fed official clearly signaling “public-private collaboration.”

Sense of Timing: He Knows When to Speak and When to Stay Silent
In July this year, the Fed held its summer FOMC meeting. Although the market widely expected rates to remain unchanged, the meeting ended with a rare scene: Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman cast dissenting votes, arguing for an immediate 25-basis-point cut.

Such “minority否决” is uncommon within the Fed. The last similar occurrence was in 1993.

Two weeks before the vote, Waller had signaled his stance in a speech at a New York University central banking seminar. His public remarks clearly advocated that “current economic data support moderate rate cuts.” On the surface, this was a technical “advance communication”;但从节奏感看, it was a release of political signals. At the time, Trump had been critical of Powell, demanding “immediate rate cuts” on Truth Social. Waller’s vote and speech neither fully aligned with the president nor provided cover for Powell. He恰到好处地 stood between “policy adjustment” and “technical independence.”

In a highly politicized Fed environment, this ability to gauge分寸 and time statements反而 makes him seem more leadership material.

How Should the Crypto Market React If He Takes Over?
The crypto market’s interest in “who leads the Fed” is never just peripheral gossip but a triple reflection of policy expectations, market sentiment, and regulatory paths. If Waller becomes Chair, we need to seriously consider how three types of actors will reprice the future.

1. For stablecoin issuers and compliance players, a large-scale opening of “regulatory dialogue windows”:
   Waller has repeatedly stated his opposition to CBDCs, calling them “incapable of solving market failures in the existing payment system,” while emphasizing the advantages of private stablecoins (e.g., USDC, DAI, PayPal USD) in payment efficiency and cross-border settlement. He stresses that regulation should come from “Congressional legislation rather than agency power expansion” and urges that “these new technologies should not be stigmatized.”

   This means that if he becomes Chair, projects like Circle, MakerDAO, and Ethena could enter a period of “regulatory certainty,” no longer stuck in the gray area between the SEC and CFTC. More importantly, Waller’s “market-led, government-builds-the-road” philosophy might prompt coordinated efforts with the Treasury and FDIC to develop a stablecoin regulatory framework,推动 “licensing, reserve standardization, and disclosure standardization” policies.

2. For mainnet assets like BTC and ETH, a mid-term protective umbrella of “sentiment boost + regulatory easing”:
   Although Waller hasn’t publicly praised Bitcoin or Ethereum, he stated in 2024: “The Fed should not choose sides for the market.” This brief statement implies the Fed won’t actively “suppress non-dollar systems” as long as they don’t challenge payment sovereignty or systemic risk.

   This would provide BTC and ETH with a window of “relatively mild regulatory cycle.” Even if the SEC continues to question their security status, if the Fed doesn’t aggressively push CBDCs, block crypto payments, or intervene in on-chain activities, market speculation and risk appetite would naturally improve.

   Simply put, in a “Waller era,” Bitcoin might not get “official endorsement,” but it would benefit from “regulatory easing.”

3. For developers and DeFi native innovators, a rare window of “central bank dialogue”:
   Waller has mentioned “AI payments,” “smart contracts,” and “distributed ledger technology” on multiple occasions this year, stating: “We may not adopt these technologies, but we must understand them.” This stance is截然不同 from many regulators who avoid or dismiss crypto technology.

   This opens a crucial space for developers: not necessarily acceptance, but at least no longer exclusion.

   From Libra to USDC, EigenLayer to Visa Crypto, generations of developers have faced “parallel universe”尴尬 in communicating with central bank regulators. If Waller takes office, the Fed could become the first central bank leadership “willing to dialogue with DeFi natives.”

Conclusion: Prediction Markets Price the Future, the Chair Choice Prices Direction
Whether Waller becomes the new Chair is still uncertain. But the market has already started trading on “how he would price the future if he becomes Chair.” And the 31% bet on him in prediction markets continues to climb, far exceeding competitors.

At this juncture, it’s certain that rate cut expectations are materializing; the crypto industry is seeking policy breakthroughs; and dollar assets are in a global三角博弈 of “increased Treasury issuance—high rates—risk appetite repair.” Waller, as a politically acceptable, predictable, and imaginable “successor,” naturally becomes the focus of bets.

But perhaps another topic deserves attention: If he ultimately doesn’t become Fed Chair, how will the market readjust these expectations? And if he does take the helm—the ranking race for the “next-generation dollar system” may have just begun.

Current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has emerged as the hottest candidate for the next Fed Chair, topping the list with a 30% probability on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Waller’s academic background and technocratic qualities give him three key advantages:

1. Flexible and Pragmatic Monetary Policy: His approach is not ideologically driven but adjusts based on economic data. He supported rate cuts in 2019, advocated for hikes in 2022, and was among the first governors to endorse cuts in 2025.

2. Strong Political Compatibility: Nominated by Trump but not seen as a close ally, he maintains a technocratically neutral image amid bipartisan competition, making him acceptable to all sides.

3. Openness to Crypto Technology: He opposes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), supports the development of private stablecoins, and advocates for Congressional legislation over agency power expansion, offering potential policy opportunities for stablecoins and DeFi.

If Waller takes office, the crypto market could see clearer regulatory frameworks, a more relaxed environment for mainstream assets, and increased dialogue between central banks and innovative technologies. Though the outcome is uncertain, the market already views him as a predictable, low-political-risk choice.

Summary
Written by Ethan, Odaily Daily

In the early hours of September 12 Beijing time, the U.S. federal funds rate market sent a strong signal: there was a 93.9% probability that the Fed would cut rates by 25 basis points at this month’s meeting. After five consecutive pauses, the market finally saw a directional shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, another赌局 quietly advanced, one that will shape the Fed’s trajectory over the next two years: Who will succeed Powell as the next Fed Chair?

On the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, as of the same day, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller led with 30% odds, ahead of the other two “Kevin camp” contenders—Hassett (16%) and Warsh (15%). However, the market also left room for a more dramatic possibility: “Trump will not announce a successor by year-end” remained the top bet at 41%.

These figures suggest the market is betting on two fronts: one is the consensus on rate cuts, and the other is the uncertain race for the monetary helm. Between them, Waller’s name repeatedly appears in trading views and policy games.

Why Is the Market Starting to ‘Believe in Waller’?
The Story of an ‘Atypical Fed Governor’: How a Small-Town Professor Rose to Prominence
Waller’s background and career are unconventional in the Fed system. He didn’t attend an Ivy League school or hold senior roles at Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley. Born in a Nebraska town with fewer than 8,000 people, he earned his economics degree from Bemidji State University. In 1985, he received a Ph.D. in economics from Washington State University and began a long academic career, teaching and researching at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and the University of Notre Dame for 24 years.

He spent 24 years studying monetary theory, focusing on central bank independence, tenure systems, and market coordination mechanisms. In 2009, he left academia to join the St. Louis Fed as research director. In 2019, Trump nominated him to the Fed Board, a controversial and difficult confirmation process that ultimately succeeded by a narrow 48–47 Senate vote on December 3, 2020. At 61, Waller was older than most governors when he joined the top decision-making layer, but this became an advantage: he had few burdens, owed no favors to Wall Street, and understood from his time at the St. Louis Fed that the Fed isn’t monolithic—different voices are not only tolerated but sometimes encouraged.

This path gave him both professional judgment and freedom of expression without being labeled a代言人 for any faction. From Trump’s perspective, such a figure might be easier to “pick up and use”; in the market’s eyes, such a candidate means “less uncertainty.”

But in a power transition game intertwined with bureaucracy and political will, Waller isn’t naturally the kind of candidate the market rallies behind. His career path is relatively academic and technical; he’s neither known for public rhetoric nor a frequent face on financial TV.

Yet, he has gradually become a “consensus candidate” frequently mentioned in market tools and political commentary. The reason lies in his triple compatibility:

1. Flexible but non-opportunistic monetary policy style:
   Waller is neither a typical “inflation hawk” nor a proponent of loose money. He argues policy should respond to economic conditions: supporting rate cuts in 2019 to preempt recession, endorsing rapid hikes in 2022 to curb inflation, and in 2025, as the economy slowed and inflation fell, he was among the first governors to vote for cuts. This “non-ideological” policy style is稀缺 in today’s highly politicized Fed landscape.

2. Clear political relationships and a clean technocratic image:
   Nominated by Trump in 2020, Waller is one of the few Republican monetary policy officials who can achieve “technical neutrality” and “political compatibility.” He isn’t seen as “Trump’s close ally” nor rejected by the party establishment, giving him broader political maneuvering room in intense partisan competition.

   Unlike the鲜明立场 and strong alignment of Hassett or the close Wall Street ties of Warsh, Waller exhibits purer technocratic traits. He’s more easily seen as “a trustworthy professional.” In the highly polarized U.S. political environment, this de-ideologized, competency-based image makes him a steady, widely acceptable appointment.

3. Tolerance toward crypto technology within the system:
   Waller isn’t a “crypto believer,” but he’s one of the most vocal Fed officials on topics like stablecoins, AI payments, and tokenization. He doesn’t advocate government-led innovation and opposes CBDCs, but supports private stablecoins as tools for payment efficiency, proposing that “the government should build the underlying infrastructure like highways and leave the rest to the market.”

   Between traditional finance and digital assets, compared to other candidates, he may be the only Fed official clearly signaling “public-private collaboration.”

Sense of Timing: He Knows When to Speak and When to Stay Silent
In July this year, the Fed held its summer FOMC meeting. Although the market widely expected rates to remain unchanged, the meeting ended with a rare scene: Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman cast dissenting votes, arguing for an immediate 25-basis-point cut.

Such “minority否决” is uncommon within the Fed. The last similar occurrence was in 1993.

Two weeks before the vote, Waller had signaled his stance in a speech at a New York University central banking seminar. His public remarks clearly advocated that “current economic data support moderate rate cuts.” On the surface, this was a technical “advance communication”;但从节奏感看, it was a release of political signals. At the time, Trump had been critical of Powell, demanding “immediate rate cuts” on Truth Social. Waller’s vote and speech neither fully aligned with the president nor provided cover for Powell. He恰到好处地 stood between “policy adjustment” and “technical independence.”

In a highly politicized Fed environment, this ability to gauge分寸 and time statements反而 makes him seem more leadership material.

How Should the Crypto Market React If He Takes Over?
The crypto market’s interest in “who leads the Fed” is never just peripheral gossip but a triple reflection of policy expectations, market sentiment, and regulatory paths. If Waller becomes Chair, we need to seriously consider how three types of actors will reprice the future.

1. For stablecoin issuers and compliance players, a large-scale opening of “regulatory dialogue windows”:
   Waller has repeatedly stated his opposition to CBDCs, calling them “incapable of solving market failures in the existing payment system,” while emphasizing the advantages of private stablecoins (e.g., USDC, DAI, PayPal USD) in payment efficiency and cross-border settlement. He stresses that regulation should come from “Congressional legislation rather than agency power expansion” and urges that “these new technologies should not be stigmatized.”

   This means that if he becomes Chair, projects like Circle, MakerDAO, and Ethena could enter a period of “regulatory certainty,” no longer stuck in the gray area between the SEC and CFTC. More importantly, Waller’s “market-led, government-builds-the-road” philosophy might prompt coordinated efforts with the Treasury and FDIC to develop a stablecoin regulatory framework,推动 “licensing, reserve standardization, and disclosure standardization” policies.

2. For mainnet assets like BTC and ETH, a mid-term protective umbrella of “sentiment boost + regulatory easing”:
   Although Waller hasn’t publicly praised Bitcoin or Ethereum, he stated in 2024: “The Fed should not choose sides for the market.” This brief statement implies the Fed won’t actively “suppress non-dollar systems” as long as they don’t challenge payment sovereignty or systemic risk.

   This would provide BTC and ETH with a window of “relatively mild regulatory cycle.” Even if the SEC continues to question their security status, if the Fed doesn’t aggressively push CBDCs, block crypto payments, or intervene in on-chain activities, market speculation and risk appetite would naturally improve.

   Simply put, in a “Waller era,” Bitcoin might not get “official endorsement,” but it would benefit from “regulatory easing.”

3. For developers and DeFi native innovators, a rare window of “central bank dialogue”:
   Waller has mentioned “AI payments,” “smart contracts,” and “distributed ledger technology” on multiple occasions this year, stating: “We may not adopt these technologies, but we must understand them.” This stance is截然不同 from many regulators who avoid or dismiss crypto technology.

   This opens a crucial space for developers: not necessarily acceptance, but at least no longer exclusion.

   From Libra to USDC, EigenLayer to Visa Crypto, generations of developers have faced “parallel universe”尴尬 in communicating with central bank regulators. If Waller takes office, the Fed could become the first central bank leadership “willing to dialogue with DeFi natives.”

Conclusion: Prediction Markets Price the Future, the Chair Choice Prices Direction
Whether Waller becomes the new Chair is still uncertain. But the market has already started trading on “how he would price the future if he becomes Chair.” And the 31% bet on him in prediction markets continues to climb, far exceeding competitors.

At this juncture, it’s certain that rate cut expectations are materializing; the crypto industry is seeking policy breakthroughs; and dollar assets are in a global三角博弈 of “increased Treasury issuance—high rates—risk appetite repair.” Waller, as a politically acceptable, predictable, and imaginable “successor,” naturally becomes the focus of bets.

But perhaps another topic deserves attention: If he ultimately doesn’t become Fed Chair, how will the market readjust these expectations? And if he does take the helm—the ranking race for the “next-generation dollar system” may have just begun.