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ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Breaks 3-Year Downtrend, Signaling the Arrival of Altcoin Season
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken its three-year downward trend, signaling the arrival of the altcoin season. After seven years in the crypto market, I have never seen such a clear bullish signal:
BTC is close to its all-time high.
Retail interest is near its historical low.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken its three-year downward trend.
The altcoin index has rebounded from its range low.
Each of these factors has triggered an altcoin season in the past. Now they are all coming together to create a resonance. Is this really the beginning of the next altcoin season?
I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but I genuinely think we are finally going to see a massive surge in altcoins.
In this long-form post, I will delve into the following:
How market sentiment has shifted and why it is bullish.
What changes have occurred to finally make the altcoin season a reality.
Important future catalysts.
Key indicators and their signals.
Which altcoins might surge.
How to build a suitable altcoin portfolio.
How to research projects that are hard to land.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
I have been in the cryptocurrency space for seven years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered altcoin seasons.
Yes, the cycle has changed somewhat, and I have already detailed the process and reasons in the quoted post. However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more enduring altcoin season, and this trend does not need the price of Bitcoin to soar to $150,000 to support it.
The narrative around BTC has fundamentally changed, from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment asset for macro hedge funds, the sixth-largest asset by market capitalization (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and the primary solution for countries facing isolation or high inflation.
A price increase in Bitcoin from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the start of an altcoin season.
The magnitude of Bitcoin's price surges (in percentage terms) will become smaller, and so will its crashes. As the market capitalization expands, its price volatility will naturally decrease. Every year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store-of-value asset becomes more apparent, rather than a speculative asset.
This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
High-market-cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "Bitcoin alternatives." They are now viewed as tech companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like NVIDIA, and Solana is like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.
This shift in perception has also occurred in past market cycles, and each time it has marked the beginning of an altcoin season. Now, let's talk about what has actually changed to make the altcoin season possible.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic became a believer. Bitcoin dominance just experienced its most severe three-day decline since November 2024. Altcoin market sentiment has fallen to rock bottom, and even after this slight uptick, retail participation is still at its historical low. In my view, the Pectra upgrade has changed the game. The plan also addressed the biggest obstacle facing Ethereum-driven altcoin season fever: user interface and user experience issues.
Retail Index
Despite widespread adoption, the retail index is currently near its historical low. This factor has always played a key role in the early stages of past altcoin seasons. Now, it is once again a positive signal. Let me explain in detail:
It is important to understand a simple truth: Assets top out when they are in the absolute best state, and bottom out when there is despair and helplessness. Altcoins are still in deep trouble, but from this moment on, the only way out is to climb against the trend and rebound from the bottom.
Catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. Downfall triggers? Zero. The market is extremely bearish. Even if it has doubled from the bottom, the retail index (partially) has not yet appeared or met the mark. Finally, it is time: even if altcoins have already risen fourfold, they still seem likely to rise another tenfold.
ETH/BTC Chart
The ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend for five consecutive months, which has had a negative impact on ETH. Its price and attention have both fallen, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking through the key resistance, the price of Ethereum surged, releasing a strong signal for the rise of altcoins.
Now let's take a look at some key indicators, such as:
Global liquidity
Stablecoin index
Altcoin season index
All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and a flood of liquidity into the crypto market, signaling the arrival of the altcoin season.
But this altcoin season will be different.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
In the last cycle, there were fewer altcoins, so almost all of them surged. This time it's different: severe supply overhang makes it hard for all altcoins to maintain their upward trend. Likely, less than 10% will see significant movement, and the key is to find these potentials.
Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and the amount of profit you hope to make.
Large-cap stocks = low profit + low risk
Mid-cap stocks = medium profit + medium risk
Small-cap stocks = high profit + high risk
Altcoin Research Methodology
If it is a high-market-cap and utility token, rather than a newly emerged meme coin, it is best to pay attention, because the risk of encountering fraud is relatively low in this case. You can analyze the token based on the following aspects:
Market capitalization
Liquidity
Trading volume
Listing on centralized and decentralized exchanges
Then create a list of your favorite altcoins.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
Pay attention to credible KOLs and investigate whether they are paying attention to or mentioning the project.
If a project is followed by many KOLs, but they themselves don't care, then this thing is mostly junk.
Analyze the Project
Start to conduct a detailed research on the altcoins in your list.
Check the following items:
What is the core idea of the project? Is there a market demand?
How is the product quality? Please take a detailed look at its official website and social media platforms.
Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?
Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns
Hundredfold returns will not be realized in a day, a week, or even a month.
Through in-depth research on potential projects and long-term holding.
Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
The most important principle:
Do not over-diversify your holdings. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below illustrates the reason.
Conclusion
Most indicators clearly signal the arrival of the altcoin season, and the rest is to be well-prepared. Remember: if you believe everything, it is the same as believing nothing. Do not pick dozens of projects, at most select five, and maintain a prudent attitude.
Only in this way can you capture the less than 10% of potential altcoins that are likely to achieve returns of more than a hundredfold. If this is not enough, take a look at this chart and you will know.
0/30 Bullish Peak Indicators Have Been Triggered. Strange, isn't it?
ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Breaks 3-Year Downtrend, Signaling the Arrival of Altcoin Season
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken its three-year downward trend, signaling the arrival of the altcoin season. After seven years in the crypto market, I have never seen such a clear bullish signal:
BTC is close to its all-time high.
Retail interest is near its historical low.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has broken its three-year downward trend.
The altcoin index has rebounded from its range low.
Each of these factors has triggered an altcoin season in the past. Now they are all coming together to create a resonance. Is this really the beginning of the next altcoin season?
I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but I genuinely think we are finally going to see a massive surge in altcoins.
In this long-form post, I will delve into the following:
How market sentiment has shifted and why it is bullish.
What changes have occurred to finally make the altcoin season a reality.
Important future catalysts.
Key indicators and their signals.
Which altcoins might surge.
How to build a suitable altcoin portfolio.
How to research projects that are hard to land.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
I have been in the cryptocurrency space for seven years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered altcoin seasons.
Yes, the cycle has changed somewhat, and I have already detailed the process and reasons in the quoted post. However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more enduring altcoin season, and this trend does not need the price of Bitcoin to soar to $150,000 to support it.
The narrative around BTC has fundamentally changed, from being seen as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment asset for macro hedge funds, the sixth-largest asset by market capitalization (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and the primary solution for countries facing isolation or high inflation.
A price increase in Bitcoin from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the start of an altcoin season.
The magnitude of Bitcoin's price surges (in percentage terms) will become smaller, and so will its crashes. As the market capitalization expands, its price volatility will naturally decrease. Every year, the trend of Bitcoin becoming a store-of-value asset becomes more apparent, rather than a speculative asset.
This is where the "value" of altcoins lies.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
High-market-cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as "Bitcoin alternatives." They are now viewed as tech companies operating within the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like NVIDIA, and Solana is like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.
This shift in perception has also occurred in past market cycles, and each time it has marked the beginning of an altcoin season. Now, let's talk about what has actually changed to make the altcoin season possible.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged and broke the three-year downward trend of ETH/BTC. Every skeptic became a believer. Bitcoin dominance just experienced its most severe three-day decline since November 2024. Altcoin market sentiment has fallen to rock bottom, and even after this slight uptick, retail participation is still at its historical low. In my view, the Pectra upgrade has changed the game. The plan also addressed the biggest obstacle facing Ethereum-driven altcoin season fever: user interface and user experience issues.
Retail Index
Despite widespread adoption, the retail index is currently near its historical low. This factor has always played a key role in the early stages of past altcoin seasons. Now, it is once again a positive signal. Let me explain in detail:
It is important to understand a simple truth: Assets top out when they are in the absolute best state, and bottom out when there is despair and helplessness. Altcoins are still in deep trouble, but from this moment on, the only way out is to climb against the trend and rebound from the bottom.
Catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. Downfall triggers? Zero. The market is extremely bearish. Even if it has doubled from the bottom, the retail index (partially) has not yet appeared or met the mark. Finally, it is time: even if altcoins have already risen fourfold, they still seem likely to rise another tenfold.
ETH/BTC Chart
The ETH/BTC has been in a downward trend for five consecutive months, which has had a negative impact on ETH. Its price and attention have both fallen, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking through the key resistance, the price of Ethereum surged, releasing a strong signal for the rise of altcoins.
Now let's take a look at some key indicators, such as:
Global liquidity
Stablecoin index
Altcoin season index
All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and a flood of liquidity into the crypto market, signaling the arrival of the altcoin season.
But this altcoin season will be different.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
In the last cycle, there were fewer altcoins, so almost all of them surged. This time it's different: severe supply overhang makes it hard for all altcoins to maintain their upward trend. Likely, less than 10% will see significant movement, and the key is to find these potentials.
Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and the amount of profit you hope to make.
Large-cap stocks = low profit + low risk
Mid-cap stocks = medium profit + medium risk
Small-cap stocks = high profit + high risk
Altcoin Research Methodology
If it is a high-market-cap and utility token, rather than a newly emerged meme coin, it is best to pay attention, because the risk of encountering fraud is relatively low in this case. You can analyze the token based on the following aspects:
Market capitalization
Liquidity
Trading volume
Listing on centralized and decentralized exchanges
Then create a list of your favorite altcoins.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
Pay attention to credible KOLs and investigate whether they are paying attention to or mentioning the project.
If a project is followed by many KOLs, but they themselves don't care, then this thing is mostly junk.
Analyze the Project
Start to conduct a detailed research on the altcoins in your list.
Check the following items:
What is the core idea of the project? Is there a market demand?
How is the product quality? Please take a detailed look at its official website and social media platforms.
Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?
Patience + Belief = Hundredfold Returns
Hundredfold returns will not be realized in a day, a week, or even a month.
Through in-depth research on potential projects and long-term holding.
Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.
On the Eve of the Altcoin Season: How to Build a Suitable Altcoin Portfolio?
The most important principle:
Do not over-diversify your holdings. Do not invest based on others' beliefs. The screenshot below illustrates the reason.
Conclusion
Most indicators clearly signal the arrival of the altcoin season, and the rest is to be well-prepared. Remember: if you believe everything, it is the same as believing nothing. Do not pick dozens of projects, at most select five, and maintain a prudent attitude.
Only in this way can you capture the less than 10% of potential altcoins that are likely to achieve returns of more than a hundredfold. If this is not enough, take a look at this chart and you will know.
0/30 Bullish Peak Indicators Have Been Triggered. Strange, isn't it?
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