The article was originally posted on Hackernoon. 

Trump’s victory, Bitcoin updating all-time highs several times, bullish cycle – this is what the market has seen so far in the fourth quarter of 2024. 

Shaping as a historical pivot for the market and crypto industry overall, Q4 has so much more prepared. 

This article breaks down the events, which shed the light on crypto’s perspectives for 2025, and discloses what to expect from the following year’s end. 

Let’s dive in!

Crypto-centred policy, Bitcoin, and strategic reserves

One of the reasons for the crypto market to revive is Trump’s proactive stance on cryptocurrencies. 

While earlier expressing scepticism to the cryptocurrency, the president-elect took a contrasting side on the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee. Amid the conference, Trump outlined ambitious plans, including maintaining all government-held Bitcoin and establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve. He also pledged to create a "Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council" to ensure regulations are favourable to the industry. 

Shortly afterwards, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis presented a bill that would add to the country’s existing holdings until it reaches one million tokens, purchased over a period of five years.

The idea itself is not new, but its practical implementation has been around for even longer. It is known that the governments of the United States, China, Germany, Ukraine, and other countries possess significant crypto holdings. 

The formalisation of strategy had remained forgotten until Trump’s victory reawakened debates about using Bitcoin as a core asset for the U.S. strategic reserve. In fact, this became a more tangible concept, as the majority of Congress seats were taken by pro-crypto senators. 

“The Trump administration understands it, I think Senator Lummis understands it…that’s why it will happen,” believes Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy executive chairman and a renowned Bitcoin maxi. 

National crypto reserve is only one of the elements reflecting possible U.S. administration’s course to elaborating crypto regulation. This is supported by Trump’s criticism towards U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler and his strict enforcement measures against crypto actors.

When crafted, U.S. crypto regulation framework could kickstart a global course, specifically as Europe is on its way to implement Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) bill by the end of 2024. 

While the trend of formalising state bitcoin reserves is only taking shape, more than a thousand private companies have already adopted a Bitcoin strategy for their own treasuries. Among them are 62 public companies, such as Reddit and Tesla. 

Solana in spotlight, Web3-dominance, and AI Agents

The attention to blockchain protocols has been exponentially growing since autumn. 

Firstly, Firedancer came into play. Dubbed as “Frankendancer”, this prototype of a validator has sent shockwaves throughout the community by managing to process over 1 million transactions per second. But crucially, it spurred the l1 token market, already heated enough ahead of a so-called altseason – a period of all-at-once surge for the altcoins. 

As a result, Solana’s total value locked (TVL) is at its peak of $8 billion. Apart from technological advancements, it was also boosted thanks to memecoins popularity. According to CoinMarketCap, the ecosystem’s capitalisation has grown 28% since the beginning of Q4, as top Solana-based ‘memes’ capitalisation surged nearly 300% since July. 

Solana’s enhanced position in the market paved a way north for other Web3 solutions. Layer one solution Sui has seen a record $1.5 billion TVL, as its native SUI token grew over 110% since October 1. Meanwhile, WBT – a centrepiece of the Whitechain network – has managed to secure almost 2x growth for the Q4, securing a $3 billion-sized market capitalisation. 

Apart from L1s, artificial intelligence (AI) is slowly taking centre stage as the leading technology in the market. Specifically, with the AI agents becoming in demand. 

AI agents operate with goal-oriented autonomy and multi-step decision-making. This allows them to evaluate conditions dynamically, make nuanced choices, and engage in economic and social interactions across on-chain and off-chain platforms. 

According to Blockhead, this flexibility makes AI agents particularly suited for crypto, a space that demands agility and rapid decision-making due to its inherent volatility and decentralized nature.

Such shift is underscored by the success stories of AI agents like Terminal of Truths and the explosive growth of the memecoins $GOAT and Centience ($CENTS), and now, an AI-powered VC – ai16z. The latter one scored 694% in only a week.

Last FOMC Meeting of 2024 and Altseason

Market expectations are high as never before – perhaps, just like the importance of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting. One will not only reveal the interest rates, but set the course for next year’s macroeconomy and hence crypto market. 

The outlooks are generally positive, as since the initial September historic cut by 50 basis points (bps), the rates were diminished by 20 bps again in November. Such a tendency has been bringing a sequential liquidity flow into the global cryptocurrency market, while the potential impact from December cuts may be even more pronounced.

This influx of capital, which the last FOMC meeting of 2024 may bring, coupled with a more favourable macroeconomic environment, could ignite a bullish wave, positioning 2025 as a year of resurgence. 

If the FOMC signals a pivot toward easing monetary policy, it might catalyse renewed confidence in crypto markets, unlocking dormant capital and fueling a rally akin to the prior economic expansions. The December meeting thus becomes not just a pivotal moment for traditional markets but a harbinger for crypto’s next big leap.

Most importantly, the expectations remain positive, as the majority of investors expect a 25 bps cut in December. 

To sum up: 

As the majority of the fourth quarter is far behind, it’s becoming clear that this period is shaping up to be a pivotal chapter for the cryptocurrency market. 

From critical regulatory shifts to macroeconomic developments like potential interest rate cuts, the stage is being set for a momentum that could drive optimism well into 2025. 

However, the market cycle’s progression hints at a potential reset by March 2025, marking a crucial turning point. 

Whether this momentum solidifies into lasting growth or faces new challenges will largely depend on how these Q4 catalysts play out, making this an exciting and transformative time for the crypto industry.