While the year 2024 crosses the second quarter, Bitcoin has already won the spotlight – both investment and regulatory. Reaching a new all-time high, Wall Street and Hong-Kong listing, and, ultimately, halving – these milestones breathed a second life into a previously vague cryptocurrency market. 

As altcoins i.e. Pepe or WhiteBIT Coin got poised for the milestones, it is essential to discover the real pusher behind the curtains – Bitcoin. To evaluate the first cryptocurrencies prospects, I spoke to Arlone Abello, known as Coach Miranda Miner – the CEO and founder of Global Miranda Miner Group, author, opinion maker, educator, and trader. 

Below – the exclusive insights on Bitcoin, ETFs, and crypto adoption. 

About education and experience

– Seeing your vast experience in investing and Web3, would you tell our readers, how did you find yourself in crypto? What encouraged you to enter this realm?

– I used to be a vice-president of operations supporting Google operations for Google Ads and Google Workspace. I also used to work as a senior operational director for a telecommunications company TELUS. This gave me tons of experience on technology and innovation, particularly in blockchain. 

I ventured into teaching cryptocurrency because I also used to be a cryptocurrency miner. I teach how to install GPUs in the mining rigs and how to connect it to a particular mining pool with different algorithms in order to earn. 

What is more, I’ve been trading US and Philippines markets since 2016.

Connecting both my passions for technology and teaching, as well as my technology and trading skills, allowed me to put myself into the influencer space of the cryptocurrency market. 

– You are currently a CEO and president at Global Miranda Miner – an educational community of your founding. 

– Correct. 

From the perspective of a coach, what motivates you to educate people about trading? Do you believe that with more educated participants, the crypto market will become safer and less speculative?

In the Philippines, there are tons of scammers utilising cryptocurrency as a means of malicious payments. Therefore, I find it important for me to mobilise the Filipino community around my platform. 

Besides, I’m the President and Founding Chairman of the IMPACT, the Philippines’ association of Crypto Traders. Within this innovative movement, we go around the Philippines and educate as many colleges and universities as we can – all to set the lives, hearts, and minds of young people for cryptocurrency and blockchain awareness.

So, what motivates me is my own passion and dedication to teach and educate the Filipino community; and, as well, make Filipino dedicated users of crypto and blockchain.

About halving, scarcity, and Stock-to-Flow

– Bitcoin’s halving took place recently. Many anticipated an immediate price rally due to it, but it didn’t happen. Will halving cause the positive dynamics for Bitcoin in the long-term perspective, or does this event have no effect on the BTC price at all? 

– As per my long-term perspective, halving will absolutely cause a positive impact for Bitcoin. From an average of around 60 million dollars worth of BTC minted per block, halving cut it to approximately 30 million, and that is an incentive for the crypto miners. Only that amount of Bitcoin will go out in circulation. 

Still, the consumption and the demand never stops. In fact, with Hong-Kong coming into the picture, which is a backdoor entry to China for me, the demand is just going to increase. From the dynamics of supply and demand point, if the demand is going to remain, the supply is going to diminish, therefore the price could appreciate. 

Important factor to note is the competition between capital operating companies on the long-term value of Bitcoin.

– Can scarcity be reviewed as an important factor of Bitcoin price?

– Yes, it is. 

– The idea of scarcity is utilised in PlanB’s Bitcoin price prediction model Stock-to-Flow. Many investors and crypto entrepreneurs i.e. Vitalik Buterin and Nico Cordeiro find it irrelevant. What is your opinion on it?

I’ve studied economics in college, hence I’ve always believed in the law of supply and demand. I think this law is a perfect society-based mathematics that can be applied even to regular commodities i.e. rice and fuel. Here in the Philippines, if supply for ones shrinks, the price can skyrocket because of the increased demand. 

– From the investment perspective, may Bitcoin evidently lose the investors’ interest and become outpushed by the assets which are backed by utility, i.e. Ethereum?

I would not say that this is going to be the case, because Bitcoin stores value.

From the utility perspective, it possesses one through inscriptions, BRC-20 etc, which are utilising the blockchain of Bitcoin. 

In fact, I think they (Bitcoin and Ethereum) can coexist. 

About ETFs, stock market, and “buy the rumour, sell the news”

– Many argue that it is ETF net inflows which skyrocketed Bitcoin price in the recent rally. Does this factor play a crucial role in BTC market movements? Why?

– I’d say yes, however, we need to make sure that traders understand that ETF net inflows is a big number from a permutation perspective. We need to get down further on that number, because this can be a buy/sell (signal) for the most part. So, companies within the institutional radar of selling or buying an ETF will do the trade. They will still have a profit target in order to make the most use of the money that they will get. So people will be buying and selling within this particular ETF ecosystem. 

Therefore, ETF net inflow is something that is going to play a crucial role, especially for volatility.  

– How can you explain the factual importance of Bitcoin ETFs to the users who are not closing deals in the US- or Hong Kong-based stock market?

– Obviously, this provides accessibility, as you don't have to purchase Bitcoin directly in the exchange. This can be particularly appealing to those who find a technology of buying BTC by themselves and doing self-custody daunting and prefer to do investing through traditional channels, i.e. Wall Street stockbrokers.

– Why did Bitcoin not increase immediately after ETF approval, as it had been predicted before?

– There is a sell-the-news mindset here. From a market structure perspective, receiving consolidation within the range of 59,000-73,000 is quite normal. I’ve seen this for many cycles. 

What is more, the market is indecisive due to many macroeconomic and regulatory issues that are affecting the cryptocurrency ecosystem today. Particularly, SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) is throwing notices to the institutions which are selling Bitcoin or acting as a broker or an exchange for operations with the asset. 

Though, I’m not surprised that the SEC is doing this. I remember the Gold Reserve Act of 1944, signed by Franklin D. Roosevelt, and it was the largest one to control the ownership of all monetary gold in the United States. This is what’s happening today in crypto and especially for Bitcon, as the SEC is so eager to control the buy and sell operations with BTC that they have to take place only within approved and regulated channels, i.e. ones in Wall Street. The secondary exchanges like Coinbase and Binance are not going to be allowed for this because the government simply wants to control supply and demand of Bitcoin, which actually sounds good for me. 

About Bitcoin adoption, regulation, and institutional investors

– From an investor’s point of view, why do you think the traditional finance industry turned its eye on Bitcoin? Is it a pure speculation, or do institutional investors really see BTC as a commodity/tangible asset?

– What’s interesting about Bitcoin is that it has no financial statements involved, however it keeps a common trust within the community, which is going to be a store of value. Simply because this asset naturally possesses all the characteristics of an asset i.e. it can be divisible, it has value. 

So, given the limited supply of Bitcoin, and seeing that regulatory institutions possess BTC as of today, I’d say these institutions are staking their chance on Bitcoin as a diversification tool – particularly while the dollar and other currencies suffer on the base today.  

– Seeing the governments-initiated regulations and the facts of storing Bitcoin on state accounts, can Bitcoin’s core idea of free and decentralised currency be in jeopardy?

– I agree about this one. 

If you scrutinise the S-1 filing of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval, you’ll see that the terms “redemption in cash” and “redemption in kind” are introduced there. Those are the things that you don’t normally get to see within a decentralized ecosystem unless such decisions are taken through DAO or a forking vote. However, this is something that institutions and even the governments tried to introduce as means to centralize and control the supply and redemption of Bitcoin through the institutional gateway and authorized participants in the deals.

The core idea of decentralization is quite in jeopardy, because the SEC and Wall Street institutions (which are approved by SEC) are now dictating how you could redeem Bitcoin.

– The term “crypto adoption” has been widely used in recent years, mostly referring to Bitcoin. What does that term imply to you? Is it an institutional or government integration, or is it limited to a wider personal use?

– I think it is both institutional and government integration. Whenever such a potential asset that can be used in the long-term as a collateral to loans or banks is introduced, then there needs to be a government recognition of Bitcoin. And I’m a proponent of integration of blockchain and crypto within the government use cases, even as the means of payments or funds within a social welfare, or donations to the community. With Bitcoin and its transparency, it will be even easier to monitor close-box systems. Bitcoin offers open source backable and transparent transactions that are flowing through the blockchain. 

– Does Bitcoin adoption guarantee the increase of its value and price, or can it cause a backlash?

– I’d say adoption can increase the value, however if we see that there is a bigger controlling entity in this case, i.e. BlackRock will handle 10% of the entire Bitcoin’s supply in the next years, then this could potentially cause severe control of the price of Bitcoin by reducing the supply within the ecosystem. This can potentially increase the value. 

However, if the institutions try to control it, this can bring a great social distress in the community. Whenever there is a small group of people, who are controlling natural resources and assets, the government will run into anarchy, going back to the kings and queens. 

Again, this can create social issues in the society, especially if Bitcoin is controlled by smaller entities or fewer people.

Will Bitcoin replace gold and fiat?

– Is there any chance Bitcoin will suppress fiat?

– It will take hundreds of years. 

The evolution of money is something that has been with us through history. The fiat can be suppressed with the e-money, i.e. e-pesos or e-dollars. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be integrated with the digital currencies as alternatives to ones. 

– Michael Saylor recently said that “Bitcoin is going to eat gold?”. Will it in fact?

– They can coexist. There are still people who would like to see a tangibility in their assets.  

Closing Remarks: 

– As a Mentor, could you tell, what defines a professional trader: technical knowledge or the right mindset?

– A professional trader has certain non-negotiables.

Firstly, one should be in full awareness of market structure: support/resistance, knowing all trading rules, being able to do a back-testing and a forward testing. A person can develop the ability to come up with profitable trade setups using the proven, repeatable, and reproducible setups within crypto. It is technical knowledge.

Still, the right mindset and your professional behaviour is driven by experience in the market. You get to know yourself more only if you spend enough time in the market. You won’t be able to know yourself as a trader if you don’t stay long enough in the market. I’ve been a trader for more than 9 years now, and this really helps me to come through as I am capable of controlling my emotions, executing when it is only necessary and running only from the profits in the market. 

– Which three top qualities should newbies heed to become successful traders?

– Number one: stay analytical and rational in the market. It takes lots of analytics to be able to control it, connect the dots, and come up with your profitable setups. 

Number two: you need to journal to get to know yourself. There are two types of traders: ones who sit in front of the screen trading, and ones who are reading the trades at night. Normally, the latter ones are more rational. So, make sure you journal to make sure what mistakes you should not do as a trader, as well as reflect on yourself to avoid them. 

Number three: the top quality of a trader is patience. You should become patient – and not by means of stagnation. Instead of carrying out multiple trades, you can use the times when the market is boring to do your research, or monitor regulatory developments and novelties in a particular blockchain technology sector.

When we’re overtrading, we’re losing a lot of money.