Arthur Hayes begins with a philosophical question:
How does society manage scarcity when utopia is still science fiction?

Until humanity achieves infinite energy and abundance, we need a mechanism to decide who gets what—and that mechanism is money.

Money, he says, is how markets “adjudicate scarcity.” It’s the tool that tells society what to produce, how much, and for whom. But whenever governments interfere with either the price of money (interest rates) or its supply (printing), they distort reality.

And those distortions (every inflation, every boom, every crash) create the cycles that define modern civilization.

No matter the ideology (capitalist, socialist, communist) Hayes argues that all governments end up debasing their money. Why? Because every politician dreams of a shortcut to prosperity.

“The people’s palliative cure for a volatile and uncertain universe is always to print more money.”

In ancient times, citizens resisted by saving gold or silver. Today, their modern equivalent is Bitcoin.

Just as traditional cultures used hard money in rituals (births, marriages, deaths) to preserve value through time, Bitcoiners use protocol, code, and culture to preserve sovereignty through cycles of debasement.

That’s the spiritual throughline: sound money as cultural defense.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a predictable rhythm: a new all-time high every four years, driven by halvings and liquidity waves. Hayes argues this cycle is now broken.

Why? Because the drivers have changed.

He studies U.S. and Chinese monetary cycles to show that Bitcoin’s booms and busts track liquidity, not time.

• When the Fed floods markets with cheap dollars (low rates, high liquidity), Bitcoin rises.

• When China expands credit, the effect amplifies globally.

• When both tighten, Bitcoin corrects.

• The coming phase? Both governments are turning the taps back on.

That means Bitcoin’s next rally won’t wait for another halving. It’ll arrive when liquidity returns.

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful.”

In Hayes’ view: the king (Bitcoin) isn’t dead... he’s about to be re-crowned.

Hayes’ essay is about Bitcoin, but its implications ripple through all of Web3.

His thesis can be read as a warning, and an opportunity, for decentralized communities:

Governments can’t stop printing. Every system (no matter how modern) reverts to centralized control when volatility rises. Web3 must design for this inevitability: protocols that outlast the cycle rather than fight it head-on.

Each bull run reawakens DAOs, NFT projects, DeFi platforms. But the real question is whether those communities can sustain meaning when the liquidity fades. Hard money thinking must evolve into hard community design.

Hayes treats Bitcoin as the “technological miracle” that safeguards human sovereignty in a digital empire. Web3 builders can think of it as Layer 0—the ultimate store of credibility beneath every decentralized network.

If markets allocate scarcity through money, then DAOs allocate power through tokens. Hayes’ essay invites communities to ask: are we manipulating our own currencies the same way governments manipulate fiat?

Hayes’ conclusion is simple but powerful:

“The king is dead. Long live the king.”

Each Bitcoin cycle ends, yet the system endures. Not because it’s perfect, but because it’s principled.

For Web3 communities, the takeaway is clear: decentralization isn’t about avoiding power; it’s about building systems where no one can print trust.

As governments turn the money spigots back on, liquidity will return. But only those who understand why money matters (and how sovereignty is earned) will turn that liquidity into lasting value.

Arthur Hayes’ essay is a reminder that:

• Money defines scarcity, and governments always distort it.

• Bitcoin survives because it’s the only form of money immune to politics.

• Web3 must extend that logic to community, governance, and value.

“Sound money built Bitcoin. Sound coordination will build the next Web3 empire.”