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InfoFi Trinity "Mouth-Looting" Guide: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been sluggish, but "mouth-looting" has gained attention as a new way to participate. This article focuses on the three major "mouth-looting" projects: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe. In the past week, the market has been in a tug-of-war, with the overall cryptocurrency market falling into a slump. Both price performance and community discussion热度 have been as stagnant as a dead pool. However, in this silence, a new way of participation has increasin...
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InfoFi Trinity "Mouth-Looting" Guide: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been sluggish, but "mouth-looting" has gained attention as a new way to participate. This article focuses on the three major "mouth-looting" projects: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe. In the past week, the market has been in a tug-of-war, with the overall cryptocurrency market falling into a slump. Both price performance and community discussion热度 have been as stagnant as a dead pool. However, in this silence, a new way of participation has increasin...
The Quiet End of an Era: How Wallets Lost the Battle for Traffic to CEXs
An era has quietly come to an end. Wallets, as standalone products, seem to have reached their twilight. Struggling with profitability, they are increasingly being acquired or integrated by centralized exchanges (CEXs) or traditional fintech giants, becoming mere components of larger ecosystems—such as stablecoin payments—rather than the focal point of industry development.The Decline of Standalone WalletsFor entrepreneurs in the space, persistence has become a virtue in itself. The goal? Sur...
Impact of SynFutures' Entry into AI Agents
From SynFutures to AI Agents: A New Era for DeFAI The product form of AI Agents is more suited to appear as embedded service middleware, which helps to bring the trading experience back to the simplicity and intuitiveness of Web2. The revival of the AI Agent track will not be driven by "CA engineers" who excel in performance, but by "product engineers" who focus on practical implementation. In the midst of a market sentiment storm caused by the collective failure of on-chain PVP leaders and t...
1. Core Design: Who Sets the Price and Who Suffers the Loss?
Dimension | Casino | Prediction Market |
|---|---|---|
Price setter | House (bookmaker) | All traders |
Counter-party | House vs. you | You vs. another user |
Risk bearer | House | No central bearer; platform is broker only |
Revenue | House-edge (2 %–10 %) | Trading fee (0.1 %–2 %) |
Casino example – World Cup “Brazil wins”
Stake $100 at 1.95 odds.
Brazil wins → you collect $195; house loses $95.
Brazil loses → house keeps $100.
House needs complex models, limits, early cash-out tools to stay profitable.
Prediction-market example – “Trump wins 2028”
Market price 0.60 USDC.
You buy 100 shares; someone else sells.
Platform (Polymet, etc.) never takes the other side—only clips 1 % fee.
Price floats like a stock; exit any time.
2. Four Structural Advantages over Bookmakers
No risk-engine needed
– Even micro-events (“Will it rain in Ulaanbaatar tomorrow?”) can be listed; the crowd prices them.
Platform runs zero P&L risk
– No “bank-run” or insolvency: funds sit in a smart-contract escrow.
Liquidity is crowdsourced
– Every user is a potential market-maker; no single entity must tie up capital.
Flexible exit & sophisticated trades
– Shares can be sold mid-event; users can hedge, lever, construct portfolios.
3. The Achilles Heel: Why Professional Market-Makers Refuse to Show Up
Market-makers need positive expected value (EV). In current PMs they face almost certain negative EV because of three design gaps:
No market-close / “lock”
– Inside information can enter seconds before the oracle settles the market.
No size limits or slippage
– A $1 m sweep hits the best price and instantly wipes out the maker’s spread.
Zero cost of cancellation
– Informed money jumps in and out; makers eat the adverse move both ways.
Traditional bookies solve this with:
30-min pre-event lock,
Max stake per user,
Sliding odds (slippage),
Right to refuse action.
Prediction markets launched as “fully open” removed all these guard-rails.
4. The Fix: A Purpose-Built AMM for Prediction Markets (PropAMM)
Ingredient checklist:
Permissionless pool creation
– Anyone can spin up a market (Uniswap-style).
Controller knobs for the pool creator
– Custom slippage curve,
– Single-order cap,
– Automatic lock T-minutes before event end.
These settings keep informed whales from sniping.
External, professional LPs
– Market-making firms deposit USDC and earn fees + rebate because the controller knobs restore positive EV.
– Result: tight spreads even on $10 m notional.
Hyperliquid’s perp-engine is the closest live example: dynamic fees, position caps, and funding auctions keep sophisticated liquidity providers profitable. A prediction-market flavour simply adds binary settlement.
5. Three Evolutionary Stages – Where the Money Will Flow
Stage 1 – Traditional casino
Centralised, high opex, regulatory grey, negative social image.
Stage 2 – Gen-1 prediction markets (Polymarket era)
User-vs-user, transparent, but maker-negative-EV → chronic low depth on anything that isn’t US-elections or World-Cup.
Stage 3 – Gen-2 PropAMM ecosystems
Permissionless listing + controller parameters + professional LP incentives → capacity for billion-dollar open interest and institutional flow.
Whoever ships the first “Polymarket + Hyperliquid + Uniswap” hybrid captures the gateway to a TAM that can easily exceed $100 bn as real-world events (climate, CPI, geopolitics) move on-chain.
Key Take-away
Calling a prediction market a casino is lazy shorthand.
Casinos are engineered so the house must win; prediction markets are engineered so the house doesn’t exist.
Fix the market-maker economics and the “casino” becomes the world’s most efficient information-discounting machine—one that, for once, lets the crowd instead of the bookie keep the edge.
1. Core Design: Who Sets the Price and Who Suffers the Loss?
Dimension | Casino | Prediction Market |
|---|---|---|
Price setter | House (bookmaker) | All traders |
Counter-party | House vs. you | You vs. another user |
Risk bearer | House | No central bearer; platform is broker only |
Revenue | House-edge (2 %–10 %) | Trading fee (0.1 %–2 %) |
Casino example – World Cup “Brazil wins”
Stake $100 at 1.95 odds.
Brazil wins → you collect $195; house loses $95.
Brazil loses → house keeps $100.
House needs complex models, limits, early cash-out tools to stay profitable.
Prediction-market example – “Trump wins 2028”
Market price 0.60 USDC.
You buy 100 shares; someone else sells.
Platform (Polymet, etc.) never takes the other side—only clips 1 % fee.
Price floats like a stock; exit any time.
2. Four Structural Advantages over Bookmakers
No risk-engine needed
– Even micro-events (“Will it rain in Ulaanbaatar tomorrow?”) can be listed; the crowd prices them.
Platform runs zero P&L risk
– No “bank-run” or insolvency: funds sit in a smart-contract escrow.
Liquidity is crowdsourced
– Every user is a potential market-maker; no single entity must tie up capital.
Flexible exit & sophisticated trades
– Shares can be sold mid-event; users can hedge, lever, construct portfolios.
3. The Achilles Heel: Why Professional Market-Makers Refuse to Show Up
Market-makers need positive expected value (EV). In current PMs they face almost certain negative EV because of three design gaps:
No market-close / “lock”
– Inside information can enter seconds before the oracle settles the market.
No size limits or slippage
– A $1 m sweep hits the best price and instantly wipes out the maker’s spread.
Zero cost of cancellation
– Informed money jumps in and out; makers eat the adverse move both ways.
Traditional bookies solve this with:
30-min pre-event lock,
Max stake per user,
Sliding odds (slippage),
Right to refuse action.
Prediction markets launched as “fully open” removed all these guard-rails.
4. The Fix: A Purpose-Built AMM for Prediction Markets (PropAMM)
Ingredient checklist:
Permissionless pool creation
– Anyone can spin up a market (Uniswap-style).
Controller knobs for the pool creator
– Custom slippage curve,
– Single-order cap,
– Automatic lock T-minutes before event end.
These settings keep informed whales from sniping.
External, professional LPs
– Market-making firms deposit USDC and earn fees + rebate because the controller knobs restore positive EV.
– Result: tight spreads even on $10 m notional.
Hyperliquid’s perp-engine is the closest live example: dynamic fees, position caps, and funding auctions keep sophisticated liquidity providers profitable. A prediction-market flavour simply adds binary settlement.
5. Three Evolutionary Stages – Where the Money Will Flow
Stage 1 – Traditional casino
Centralised, high opex, regulatory grey, negative social image.
Stage 2 – Gen-1 prediction markets (Polymarket era)
User-vs-user, transparent, but maker-negative-EV → chronic low depth on anything that isn’t US-elections or World-Cup.
Stage 3 – Gen-2 PropAMM ecosystems
Permissionless listing + controller parameters + professional LP incentives → capacity for billion-dollar open interest and institutional flow.
Whoever ships the first “Polymarket + Hyperliquid + Uniswap” hybrid captures the gateway to a TAM that can easily exceed $100 bn as real-world events (climate, CPI, geopolitics) move on-chain.
Key Take-away
Calling a prediction market a casino is lazy shorthand.
Casinos are engineered so the house must win; prediction markets are engineered so the house doesn’t exist.
Fix the market-maker economics and the “casino” becomes the world’s most efficient information-discounting machine—one that, for once, lets the crowd instead of the bookie keep the edge.
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