Maximize your human capital: Secure a high-paying job and work hard. Today, your career is the best defense against inflation.

Shift assets from traditional finance to uncorrelated alternative assets. The stock market may remain flat or decline for decades.

Hoard gold for stability, hold Bitcoin for appreciation. In an era of deglobalization and financial repression, both will outperform the market.

The Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

The legendary bull market has come to an end.

We have just experienced the longest bull market in history, stretching from the ruins of World War II to Donald Trump's 2024 election victory. This epic bull market has made several generations of passive investors accustomed to believing that "nothing will happen" and "the market only goes up." Unfortunately, the good times are over, and many are about to be hit hard. The structural tailwinds that fueled this decades-long boom are not only stagnating but also reversing sharply. The populist revolution has arrived, and it will come at the expense of capital to make labor great again.

Populists Take the Reins

The globalist neoconservative political project led by the presidencies of Clinton → Bush → Obama → Biden has officially come to an end. Trump strangled it, and its remnants will not rise again.

Populism is not just an American phenomenon

A new populist political project has emerged in the US. Trump now fully controls the Republican Party in a way he didn't in 2016. Meanwhile, the Democrats are experiencing the kind of internal strife the Republicans have just finished with, and you can expect the populists to eventually defeat the globalists.

Populist politics and globalist politics are fundamentally different. You need to update your view of the goals of both parties. There will still be differences between the Republicans and Democrats, but they will increasingly converge on the core populist agenda:

• Emphasis on blue-collar jobs. Both parties are now competing over who loves factory workers more. The "learn to code" era is over.

• Reindustrialization. Everyone wants factories, supply chains, and key industries to return to the US.

• Tariffs. The next president, whether from the Republicans or Democrats, is expected to continue a foreign policy centered on tariffs.

• Free trade is politically toxic.

• Nationalism. The distinction between "citizens and non-citizens" is making a comeback with even more force. Both parties will continue to restrict immigration and deport illegal immigrants. The difference will be in scope and speed, not direction.

The elite consensus that drove policy from Reagan to Obama promised prosperity through free trade, open capital flows, and globalization under US leadership. For financiers and tech moguls, it delivered astonishing results. But for large swaths of the US, especially the industrial heartland, it brought community hollowing out, wage stagnation, and fentanyl epidemics. Populism is not a fluke; it is a predictable phenomenon.

The Value of Labor

Two powerful forces are converging to drive wages significantly higher:

• Reindustrialization surges labor demand. Even with automation, the repatriation of factories and supply chains will create a huge demand for workers. Every new semiconductor plant or electric vehicle battery factory needs engineers, technicians, construction workers, and logistics personnel. The Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act alone injected hundreds of billions of dollars into domestic manufacturing opportunities.

• Immigration restrictions shrink labor supply. Whether through border control, deportations, or reduced visa approvals, the inflow of new workers is restricted. Republicans want to deport all illegal immigrants; Democrats are at least conceding to deport those with criminal records. Either way, the trend is clear: fewer workers entering the workforce.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

Recall the basic supply and demand curves from Economics 101.

It's basic economics: when labor demand increases and supply contracts, wages must rise. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural shift that could last decades. For the first time in years, you will see wage increases outpacing inflation and financial asset returns.

Even in an inflationary environment, this will be the case. I expect inflation to range between 3% - 9% over the next decade due to deglobalization, tariffs, and labor shortages. But if your wages grow 5% faster than inflation each year, rising prices won't keep you up at night. While asset owners watch their portfolios stagnate, your real wealth is increasing.

This means: it's time to go all-in on your career. Work hard, learn valuable skills, especially those related to domestic production and physical infrastructure. Your human capital (your ability to earn money) is appreciating. This is a generational opportunity to accumulate wealth through income rather than asset appreciation.

Wall Street's Decline

During the US's globalist political project, Wall Street was the most important interest group. Their interests were seen as synonymous with national interests. Free capital flows, deregulation, and bailouts when necessary - Wall Street had it all. It seemed like every Treasury Secretary came straight from Goldman Sachs.

Now, as deglobalization progresses, Wall Street quickly falls out of favor politically and with the public. The financial elite haven't realized it yet, but they no longer have the allies and power they had 5 - 10 years ago. They're like dinosaurs looking up at that strange light in the sky, not understanding their era is about to end.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

The idea that the Federal Reserve will inevitably pivot to rate cuts is wrong. The Fed will not pivot.

Because Wall Street hasn't recognized its diminished status, they still expect the Fed to come to their rescue when they're in trouble. They assume the famous "Fed put" (the implicit promise by the central bank to cut rates and save the market) is still in effect. But it's not.

Since 2021, every politician has learned a key lesson: if you're an elected leader and there's inflation domestically, you will lose your reelection campaign. It's that simple. This has completely reversed the political incentives around monetary policy. Savvy politicians are now pressuring the Fed to keep rates high because rate cuts could re-inflate the economy, and inflation will cost them their jobs.

Even if the market crashes, the current political calculus prioritizes fighting inflation over saving asset prices. Wall Street can cry all they want, but in a populist environment, their tears won't win votes. In fact, many voters will cheer Wall Street's setbacks. This reality is not yet reflected in market prices.

The Depressions of Financial Assets

It's time to stop pretending the stock market and the real economy are the same thing. Your wages and quality of life can improve even as financial assets and the stock market decline. For those under 30, this is actually an ideal situation - you finally have the chance to buy homes and stocks at reasonable prices with your rising wages.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

You may never see Apple's stock price hit new highs again.

Take Apple as an example. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio was around 40, with a gross margin of about 46%. That means if Apple's revenue per share was around $100, profit per share would be about $46, and the stock price would be around $1,960.

Now assume they have to repatriate production and labor to the US. With lower domestic production efficiency, their profit margins will compress. Gross margin drops to 20%, and in a high-interest-rate environment, the market won't tolerate such an aggressive price-to-earnings ratio anymore, so it drops to 25 (still above the historical average). Suppose over the next decade, because Apple is still an exceptional company, they manage to double their revenue. By 2035, they have revenue per share of about $200, but profit per share is only $40, and the stock price is $1,000.

This is how financial assets can enter a long-term bear market (over 10 years) while companies are still profitable and giving employees raises. Even with business activity growth and wage increases, stock prices could actually fall by 50%.

This is not just theoretical; it happened in Japan after 1989. That year, the Nikkei index hit nearly 40,000 points and then crashed. Thirty-six years later, it still hasn't fully recovered. If you bought Japanese stocks at the peak and held them for a generation, in real terms, you would still be in a loss. This is what happens when a financialized economy built on loose money and globalization has to adapt to a new reality.

US financial assets are highly susceptible to a "lost decade" (or even two decades). The passive investment strategies that worked for the baby boomers will likely yield poor returns for the next generation. For index fund believers, this will be a nightmare.

So, who are the losers?

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

This is a useful reference for how much the baby boomers profited from the globalist political project.

At this point, you might wonder who will be the unlucky ones in the new political-economic landscape. There are mainly two groups:

• Large companies with high profit margins. Those companies that enjoyed the benefits of globalization (outsourcing production, optimizing global supply chains, paying extremely low wages) face painful adjustments. Repatriation of production means higher costs, labor scarcity means higher wages, and tariffs mean higher input costs. All of these compress their previously high profit margins. They will still be profitable, but with reduced profits, investors will give these lower profits lower valuations.

• Baby boomers too old to benefit from wage growth. The real victims are retirees and those about to retire, who are asset-rich but income-poor. After decades of policies catering to their interests, the baby boomers' advantage is over. They have exited the labor market, so wage increases are of no help to them. Their retirement accounts are heavily invested in stocks and bonds, which may stagnate or decline for years. Meanwhile, inflation erodes their fixed income. It's a triple whammy: falling assets, rising costs, and no way to earn more income.

This is not just an economic issue; it's a generational fairness issue. The baby boomers enjoyed the fruits of post-World War II prosperity, bought homes cheaply, watched their stocks rise 10% a year for decades, and then kicked away the ladder. Now, as they try to cash in these gains, they will find fewer buyers. The large-scale intergenerational wealth transfer many expected may not be as substantial as imagined.

So, who are the winners?

Under this new paradigm, the winners are clear:

• Labor, especially blue-collar workers. Electricians, plumbers, welders, mechanics, construction workers - anyone who makes or repairs physical things is poised to reap huge benefits. These jobs cannot be outsourced, are crucial for reindustrialization, and face reduced labor competition. For these workers, the era of wage stagnation is over. They will earn high wages and regain social status.

• Young people entering the workforce. If you're just twenty, this shift is in your favor. Over your career, you will earn higher wages. After asset prices fall, you will eventually buy assets (housing, stocks) at more reasonable valuations. You have decades of earning time to benefit from a pro-labor environment. This is much better than entering the workforce in 2010 when wages were stagnant but assets were already expensive.

• Holders of uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin and gold. As financial repression intensifies and traditional assets struggle, alternative assets outside the system become increasingly attractive. For thousands of years, gold has been the classic inflation hedge and safe haven. Central banks around the world are hoarding gold at record speeds. Bitcoin, as digital gold, serves a similar function but with greater upside potential. Both can thrive in an environment of financial instability, currency devaluation, and geopolitical tension.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

Central banks are buying gold in large quantities.

Bitcoin: It's important to understand that Bitcoin was created for moments like this, when trust in traditional financial institutions wavers and governments take increasingly desperate measures to manage debt. When everything else is depreciating, Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes extremely attractive. I expect Bitcoin to eventually reach $1 million, but you need patience. This is not a get-rich-quick trade.

The New Economic Order

We are witnessing a historic turning point: the end of the neoliberal globalist order and the rise of populist nationalism. This is not a minor policy adjustment; it is a fundamental reshuffling of economic winners and losers.

For decades, capital dominated labor, financial assets outperformed wages, and Wall Street called the shots in Washington. That era is over. We are entering a period where labor regains influence, wage growth outpaces asset returns, and economic policies prioritize workers over investors.

This transition will not be smooth. Markets will experience sharp declines, and inflation will last longer than most people expect. As countries prioritize their own interests over global cooperation, geopolitical tensions will intensify.

But within this turmoil lies opportunity. Focus on learning skills that can fetch high wages in the new economy, shift from overvalued financial assets to uncorrelated alternative assets. Prepare for a world where the paycheck, not the investment portfolio, is the primary tool for wealth accumulation.

The populist revolution not only changes politics; it rewrites the economic rules. Those who recognize this shift early and position themselves accordingly will reap the rewards. Those who cling to old strategies will struggle. This is not the end of prosperity; it is the redistribution of prosperity.

Maximize your human capital: Secure a high-paying job and work hard. Today, your career is the best defense against inflation.

Shift assets from traditional finance to uncorrelated alternative assets. The stock market may remain flat or decline for decades.

Hoard gold for stability, hold Bitcoin for appreciation. In an era of deglobalization and financial repression, both will outperform the market.

The Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

The legendary bull market has come to an end.

We have just experienced the longest bull market in history, stretching from the ruins of World War II to Donald Trump's 2024 election victory. This epic bull market has made several generations of passive investors accustomed to believing that "nothing will happen" and "the market only goes up." Unfortunately, the good times are over, and many are about to be hit hard. The structural tailwinds that fueled this decades-long boom are not only stagnating but also reversing sharply. The populist revolution has arrived, and it will come at the expense of capital to make labor great again.

Populists Take the Reins

The globalist neoconservative political project led by the presidencies of Clinton → Bush → Obama → Biden has officially come to an end. Trump strangled it, and its remnants will not rise again.

Populism is not just an American phenomenon

A new populist political project has emerged in the US. Trump now fully controls the Republican Party in a way he didn't in 2016. Meanwhile, the Democrats are experiencing the kind of internal strife the Republicans have just finished with, and you can expect the populists to eventually defeat the globalists.

Populist politics and globalist politics are fundamentally different. You need to update your view of the goals of both parties. There will still be differences between the Republicans and Democrats, but they will increasingly converge on the core populist agenda:

• Emphasis on blue-collar jobs. Both parties are now competing over who loves factory workers more. The "learn to code" era is over.

• Reindustrialization. Everyone wants factories, supply chains, and key industries to return to the US.

• Tariffs. The next president, whether from the Republicans or Democrats, is expected to continue a foreign policy centered on tariffs.

• Free trade is politically toxic.

• Nationalism. The distinction between "citizens and non-citizens" is making a comeback with even more force. Both parties will continue to restrict immigration and deport illegal immigrants. The difference will be in scope and speed, not direction.

The elite consensus that drove policy from Reagan to Obama promised prosperity through free trade, open capital flows, and globalization under US leadership. For financiers and tech moguls, it delivered astonishing results. But for large swaths of the US, especially the industrial heartland, it brought community hollowing out, wage stagnation, and fentanyl epidemics. Populism is not a fluke; it is a predictable phenomenon.

The Value of Labor

Two powerful forces are converging to drive wages significantly higher:

• Reindustrialization surges labor demand. Even with automation, the repatriation of factories and supply chains will create a huge demand for workers. Every new semiconductor plant or electric vehicle battery factory needs engineers, technicians, construction workers, and logistics personnel. The Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act alone injected hundreds of billions of dollars into domestic manufacturing opportunities.

• Immigration restrictions shrink labor supply. Whether through border control, deportations, or reduced visa approvals, the inflow of new workers is restricted. Republicans want to deport all illegal immigrants; Democrats are at least conceding to deport those with criminal records. Either way, the trend is clear: fewer workers entering the workforce.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

Recall the basic supply and demand curves from Economics 101.

It's basic economics: when labor demand increases and supply contracts, wages must rise. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural shift that could last decades. For the first time in years, you will see wage increases outpacing inflation and financial asset returns.

Even in an inflationary environment, this will be the case. I expect inflation to range between 3% - 9% over the next decade due to deglobalization, tariffs, and labor shortages. But if your wages grow 5% faster than inflation each year, rising prices won't keep you up at night. While asset owners watch their portfolios stagnate, your real wealth is increasing.

This means: it's time to go all-in on your career. Work hard, learn valuable skills, especially those related to domestic production and physical infrastructure. Your human capital (your ability to earn money) is appreciating. This is a generational opportunity to accumulate wealth through income rather than asset appreciation.

Wall Street's Decline

During the US's globalist political project, Wall Street was the most important interest group. Their interests were seen as synonymous with national interests. Free capital flows, deregulation, and bailouts when necessary - Wall Street had it all. It seemed like every Treasury Secretary came straight from Goldman Sachs.

Now, as deglobalization progresses, Wall Street quickly falls out of favor politically and with the public. The financial elite haven't realized it yet, but they no longer have the allies and power they had 5 - 10 years ago. They're like dinosaurs looking up at that strange light in the sky, not understanding their era is about to end.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

The idea that the Federal Reserve will inevitably pivot to rate cuts is wrong. The Fed will not pivot.

Because Wall Street hasn't recognized its diminished status, they still expect the Fed to come to their rescue when they're in trouble. They assume the famous "Fed put" (the implicit promise by the central bank to cut rates and save the market) is still in effect. But it's not.

Since 2021, every politician has learned a key lesson: if you're an elected leader and there's inflation domestically, you will lose your reelection campaign. It's that simple. This has completely reversed the political incentives around monetary policy. Savvy politicians are now pressuring the Fed to keep rates high because rate cuts could re-inflate the economy, and inflation will cost them their jobs.

Even if the market crashes, the current political calculus prioritizes fighting inflation over saving asset prices. Wall Street can cry all they want, but in a populist environment, their tears won't win votes. In fact, many voters will cheer Wall Street's setbacks. This reality is not yet reflected in market prices.

The Depressions of Financial Assets

It's time to stop pretending the stock market and the real economy are the same thing. Your wages and quality of life can improve even as financial assets and the stock market decline. For those under 30, this is actually an ideal situation - you finally have the chance to buy homes and stocks at reasonable prices with your rising wages.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

You may never see Apple's stock price hit new highs again.

Take Apple as an example. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Apple's price-to-earnings ratio was around 40, with a gross margin of about 46%. That means if Apple's revenue per share was around $100, profit per share would be about $46, and the stock price would be around $1,960.

Now assume they have to repatriate production and labor to the US. With lower domestic production efficiency, their profit margins will compress. Gross margin drops to 20%, and in a high-interest-rate environment, the market won't tolerate such an aggressive price-to-earnings ratio anymore, so it drops to 25 (still above the historical average). Suppose over the next decade, because Apple is still an exceptional company, they manage to double their revenue. By 2035, they have revenue per share of about $200, but profit per share is only $40, and the stock price is $1,000.

This is how financial assets can enter a long-term bear market (over 10 years) while companies are still profitable and giving employees raises. Even with business activity growth and wage increases, stock prices could actually fall by 50%.

This is not just theoretical; it happened in Japan after 1989. That year, the Nikkei index hit nearly 40,000 points and then crashed. Thirty-six years later, it still hasn't fully recovered. If you bought Japanese stocks at the peak and held them for a generation, in real terms, you would still be in a loss. This is what happens when a financialized economy built on loose money and globalization has to adapt to a new reality.

US financial assets are highly susceptible to a "lost decade" (or even two decades). The passive investment strategies that worked for the baby boomers will likely yield poor returns for the next generation. For index fund believers, this will be a nightmare.

So, who are the losers?

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

This is a useful reference for how much the baby boomers profited from the globalist political project.

At this point, you might wonder who will be the unlucky ones in the new political-economic landscape. There are mainly two groups:

• Large companies with high profit margins. Those companies that enjoyed the benefits of globalization (outsourcing production, optimizing global supply chains, paying extremely low wages) face painful adjustments. Repatriation of production means higher costs, labor scarcity means higher wages, and tariffs mean higher input costs. All of these compress their previously high profit margins. They will still be profitable, but with reduced profits, investors will give these lower profits lower valuations.

• Baby boomers too old to benefit from wage growth. The real victims are retirees and those about to retire, who are asset-rich but income-poor. After decades of policies catering to their interests, the baby boomers' advantage is over. They have exited the labor market, so wage increases are of no help to them. Their retirement accounts are heavily invested in stocks and bonds, which may stagnate or decline for years. Meanwhile, inflation erodes their fixed income. It's a triple whammy: falling assets, rising costs, and no way to earn more income.

This is not just an economic issue; it's a generational fairness issue. The baby boomers enjoyed the fruits of post-World War II prosperity, bought homes cheaply, watched their stocks rise 10% a year for decades, and then kicked away the ladder. Now, as they try to cash in these gains, they will find fewer buyers. The large-scale intergenerational wealth transfer many expected may not be as substantial as imagined.

So, who are the winners?

Under this new paradigm, the winners are clear:

• Labor, especially blue-collar workers. Electricians, plumbers, welders, mechanics, construction workers - anyone who makes or repairs physical things is poised to reap huge benefits. These jobs cannot be outsourced, are crucial for reindustrialization, and face reduced labor competition. For these workers, the era of wage stagnation is over. They will earn high wages and regain social status.

• Young people entering the workforce. If you're just twenty, this shift is in your favor. Over your career, you will earn higher wages. After asset prices fall, you will eventually buy assets (housing, stocks) at more reasonable valuations. You have decades of earning time to benefit from a pro-labor environment. This is much better than entering the workforce in 2010 when wages were stagnant but assets were already expensive.

• Holders of uncorrelated assets like Bitcoin and gold. As financial repression intensifies and traditional assets struggle, alternative assets outside the system become increasingly attractive. For thousands of years, gold has been the classic inflation hedge and safe haven. Central banks around the world are hoarding gold at record speeds. Bitcoin, as digital gold, serves a similar function but with greater upside potential. Both can thrive in an environment of financial instability, currency devaluation, and geopolitical tension.

Populist Era: Hold Onto Your Bitcoin

Central banks are buying gold in large quantities.

Bitcoin: It's important to understand that Bitcoin was created for moments like this, when trust in traditional financial institutions wavers and governments take increasingly desperate measures to manage debt. When everything else is depreciating, Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes extremely attractive. I expect Bitcoin to eventually reach $1 million, but you need patience. This is not a get-rich-quick trade.

The New Economic Order

We are witnessing a historic turning point: the end of the neoliberal globalist order and the rise of populist nationalism. This is not a minor policy adjustment; it is a fundamental reshuffling of economic winners and losers.

For decades, capital dominated labor, financial assets outperformed wages, and Wall Street called the shots in Washington. That era is over. We are entering a period where labor regains influence, wage growth outpaces asset returns, and economic policies prioritize workers over investors.

This transition will not be smooth. Markets will experience sharp declines, and inflation will last longer than most people expect. As countries prioritize their own interests over global cooperation, geopolitical tensions will intensify.

But within this turmoil lies opportunity. Focus on learning skills that can fetch high wages in the new economy, shift from overvalued financial assets to uncorrelated alternative assets. Prepare for a world where the paycheck, not the investment portfolio, is the primary tool for wealth accumulation.

The populist revolution not only changes politics; it rewrites the economic rules. Those who recognize this shift early and position themselves accordingly will reap the rewards. Those who cling to old strategies will struggle. This is not the end of prosperity; it is the redistribution of prosperity.