InfoFi Trinity "Mouth-Looting" Guide: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been sluggish, but "mouth-looting" has gained attention as a new way to participate. This article focuses on the three major "mouth-looting" projects: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe. In the past week, the market has been in a tug-of-war, with the overall cryptocurrency market falling into a slump. Both price performance and community discussion热度 have been as stagnant as a dead pool. However, in this silence, a new way of participation has increasin...
The Quiet End of an Era: How Wallets Lost the Battle for Traffic to CEXs
An era has quietly come to an end. Wallets, as standalone products, seem to have reached their twilight. Struggling with profitability, they are increasingly being acquired or integrated by centralized exchanges (CEXs) or traditional fintech giants, becoming mere components of larger ecosystems—such as stablecoin payments—rather than the focal point of industry development.The Decline of Standalone WalletsFor entrepreneurs in the space, persistence has become a virtue in itself. The goal? Sur...
Impact of SynFutures' Entry into AI Agents
From SynFutures to AI Agents: A New Era for DeFAI The product form of AI Agents is more suited to appear as embedded service middleware, which helps to bring the trading experience back to the simplicity and intuitiveness of Web2. The revival of the AI Agent track will not be driven by "CA engineers" who excel in performance, but by "product engineers" who focus on practical implementation. In the midst of a market sentiment storm caused by the collective failure of on-chain PVP leaders and t...
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InfoFi Trinity "Mouth-Looting" Guide: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe
Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has been sluggish, but "mouth-looting" has gained attention as a new way to participate. This article focuses on the three major "mouth-looting" projects: Kaito, Cookie, and Galxe. In the past week, the market has been in a tug-of-war, with the overall cryptocurrency market falling into a slump. Both price performance and community discussion热度 have been as stagnant as a dead pool. However, in this silence, a new way of participation has increasin...
The Quiet End of an Era: How Wallets Lost the Battle for Traffic to CEXs
An era has quietly come to an end. Wallets, as standalone products, seem to have reached their twilight. Struggling with profitability, they are increasingly being acquired or integrated by centralized exchanges (CEXs) or traditional fintech giants, becoming mere components of larger ecosystems—such as stablecoin payments—rather than the focal point of industry development.The Decline of Standalone WalletsFor entrepreneurs in the space, persistence has become a virtue in itself. The goal? Sur...
Impact of SynFutures' Entry into AI Agents
From SynFutures to AI Agents: A New Era for DeFAI The product form of AI Agents is more suited to appear as embedded service middleware, which helps to bring the trading experience back to the simplicity and intuitiveness of Web2. The revival of the AI Agent track will not be driven by "CA engineers" who excel in performance, but by "product engineers" who focus on practical implementation. In the midst of a market sentiment storm caused by the collective failure of on-chain PVP leaders and t...
Share Dialog
Share Dialog
First and foremost, this cycle is indeed tough. Don't let anyone pretend otherwise. The reality is that each cycle is harder than the last. You are competing against a larger pool of participants, and more of them are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Ultimately, there are more losers. If you did not have a substantial portion of your holdings in BTC or SOL during the bear market, you probably did not make money. In fact, you might have been tearing your hair out in frustration. I would have been struggling myself if I had not been using SOL as my unit of account. Yes, we do have some big individual winners, but I suspect that if you engaged in significant speculation on these assets, you might end up giving back a part, or even a large portion, of your gains. This is especially true because people rarely quit while they are ahead after a big win. They say, "There is still time in the cycle," and believe that prices can continue to rise. This is how they end up giving back their gains. The adage "Play a foolish game, win a foolish prize" never fails to hold true. Sometimes, this just plays out over a longer time frame for traders and gamblers.
So, why is this cycle so tough?
PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder)
We have two examples where, in major altcoin cycles, most tokens fell by 90-95%. Add to that the collapse of Luna and FTX, which triggered a chain reaction across the entire industry, causing asset prices to fall even lower than they should have. Many big players were swept out, and we have not yet seen the return of cryptocurrency lending platforms in this cycle. This PTSD has deeply affected crypto natives, especially in the way the altcoin market is traded, as the mainstream view in this cycle has become "everything is a scam." In the previous two cycles, the belief that "this technology is the future" was more widespread, but now it has become a minority view, or is juxtaposed with "everything is a scam." No one wants to hold onto anything for the long term because they simply do not want to lose a large part of their portfolio again. This has created a "maximum jeet cycle." This sentiment is also amplified on Crypto Twitter, as participants constantly seek the top of the cycle.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
This psychological impact is not limited to trading behavior—it also affects the entire ecosystem's attitude towards building and investing. Projects now face higher scrutiny standards, and the threshold for trust has multiplied. This has both positive and negative sides: while it helps filter out obvious scams, it also makes it harder for legitimate projects to get attention.
Innovation
Innovation continues, and infrastructure keeps improving, but there are no more mind-boggling 0-to-1 breakthroughs like DeFi. This makes it easier to accept arguments like "cryptocurrency has not made progress" and leads to more narratives that "cryptocurrency has achieved nothing." The landscape of innovation has shifted from revolutionary breakthroughs to incremental improvements. While this is a natural evolution of any technological development, it poses challenges for a narrative-driven market. We still lack breakthrough applications that are necessary to bring cryptocurrency to hundreds of millions of on-chain users.
Regulation
The corrupt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has caused chaos. They have hindered the progress of the industry and prevented certain areas (such as DeFi) that could achieve product-market fit (PMF) with a broader audience from further development. They have also prevented all governance tokens from conveying any value to holders, thus creating the narrative that "all these tokens are useless," which is somewhat true. The SEC has driven away developers (see Andre Cronje's description of how the SEC forced him out), prevented traditional finance (TradFi) from interacting with the industry, and ultimately forced the industry to raise funds from venture capital firms. This has led to poor supply and price discovery dynamics, with value being captured by a select few. However, we are now seeing some positive changes, such as Echo, Legion, and more public sales.
Financial Nihilism
All the above factors have led to financial nihilism becoming a significant factor in this cycle. "Useless governance tokens" and the high fully diluted valuation (FDV) and low circulating dynamics caused by the SEC have pushed many crypto natives towards memecoins in search of a "fairer" opportunity. Indeed, in today's society, with asset prices soaring and wages failing to keep up with the endless devaluation of fiat currency, young people are forced to gamble to improve their status. Memecoin lotteries are very attractive. Lotteries are appealing because they offer hope.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
Since gambling has product-market fit (PMF) in cryptocurrency and we have better technology for gambling (such as Solana and Pump.fun), there has been a surge in the issuance of tokens. This is because many people want ultra-high-risk gambling, and where there is demand, there is supply. The "trenches" have always been a part of cryptocurrency, but in this cycle, it has become a widely known term. This nihilistic attitude manifests in several ways:
The rise and mainstreaming of "degen" culture
Shortening of investment time horizons
Greater focus on short-term trading rather than long-term investment
Normalization of extreme leverage and risky behavior
An "I don't care" attitude towards fundamental analysis
Past cycle experiences becoming a hindrance
Previous Cycles' Lessons as a Hindrance
The past few cycles taught people that they could buy some altcoins during bear markets and eventually outperform BTC for returns. This was the best path for most people in the past because few were good traders. Overall, even the worst altcoins had a chance. However, this cycle is a trader's market, more suited for sellers rather than holders. Traders have even gained the biggest returns in this cycle through HYPE airdrops. The narratives in this cycle do not last long, and there are few convincing ones. There are more sophisticated participants in the market who are better at efficiently extracting value, so the mini-altcoin bubbles are not particularly large.
The first hype cycle of AI agents is an example. This might be the first time people felt, "This is the new thing we have been looking for." But it is still in the early stages, and the long-term winners may not have emerged yet.
Bitcoin Has New Buyers, Altcoins Mostly Do Not
The divergence between Bitcoin and other assets has never been so pronounced. Bitcoin has unlocked demand from traditional finance. For the first time, it has an incredible new source of passive demand, with even central banks discussing adding it to their balance sheets. Altcoins, on the other hand, are finding it harder than ever to compete with Bitcoin, which makes sense because Bitcoin has a very clear target—the market cap of gold. Altcoins really do not have new buyers. Some retail investors return when Bitcoin hits new highs (but they buy XRP 💀), but overall, there is insufficient new retail capital inflow, and cryptocurrency still has a bad reputation.
The Changing Role of Ethereum
The decline in Bitcoin's dominance is largely due to the growth in Ethereum's market cap. Many people see Ethereum's rise as the trigger for an "altseason," but this rule of thumb did not work in this cycle because Ethereum underperformed due to fundamental reasons.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
Many traders and investors struggle to accept that Ethereum failed to drive higher risk appetite. In fact, it has been playing the role of ending mini-altseasons, which is the opposite of the past. Despite evidence that some narratives and sectors can operate independently of Ethereum's inaction, many traders still believe that Ethereum needs to rise for a true altseason to begin.
What Should I Do?
So, what should you do from here? Work hard, or work smarter. I still believe that fundamentals will always matter in the long run, but you must truly understand the projects you support and how they can actually outperform Bitcoin. There are only a few candidates that meet this criterion. Look for projects with the following characteristics:
Clear revenue models
Actual product-market fit
Sustainable token economics
Strong narratives that complement fundamentals (I think AI and RWA fit this)
I believe that, thanks to the unlocking of U.S. regulation, projects with stronger fundamentals and product-market fit (PMF) are finally able to accumulate value for their tokens. These projects have become lower-risk choices. Protocols that can generate revenue are now poised to perform well. This is a significant shift from the "greater fool theory" that dominated many previous token models.
If your strategy is to "wait for retail to enter and then sell," I think you will run into a lot of trouble. The market has moved beyond cycles driven purely by retail. Sophisticated participants are likely to get ahead of this obvious strategy.
You can choose to become a better trader, trying to cultivate your own edge and focusing on more short-term trades, as this market does indeed offer many consistent short-term opportunities. On-chain trading can bring greater multiples in returns, but it can also be more ruthless during downturns.
For most people without a clear edge, the "barbell portfolio" remains the best choice. Allocate 70-80% of your funds to BTC and SOL, and then set aside a smaller proportion for more speculative investments. Rebalance regularly to maintain these proportions.
You need to understand how much time you can commit to the cryptocurrency space and adjust your strategy accordingly. If you are an ordinary person with a regular job, you cannot compete with those young people who sit there for 16 hours a day. The strategy of passively holding underperforming altcoins and waiting for your turn does not work in this cycle either.
Another strategy is to try to combine different fields. Build a portfolio based on robust assets, and then look for opportunities like airdrop mining (which is harder now but still has low-risk opportunities), or identify some emerging new ecosystems and get in early (for example, HyperLiquid, Movement, Berachain, etc.), or focus on a specific area.
I still believe that the altcoin market will grow this year. The conditions are in place, and we are still correlated with global liquidity, but only a few sectors and an even smaller number of altcoins will significantly outperform BTC and SOL. Faster altcoin rotations will continue to happen.
If we encounter some crazy money printing, we might see a situation closer to the traditional altcoin season of the past, but I think this possibility is lower than what we hope for. Even in that case, most altcoins will only offer market-average returns. We still have many important altcoins set to launch this year, and liquidity will continue to be diluted and dispersed.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
It is not easy, but let me give you some hope: I have never seen anyone who has been seriously committed to the cryptocurrency space for years fail to make a substantial amount of money. This asset class still has many opportunities and many reasons to be optimistic about its growth. Ultimately, I do not know any more than anyone else; I am just adapting to what I see in this cycle. Also, I must add: We are not in the early stage of the cycle. This is very clear. The bull market has been going on for a long time, and this fact does not change whether you have made money or not. "Control the downside risks, and the upside gains will take care of themselves." This saying will always be true.
First and foremost, this cycle is indeed tough. Don't let anyone pretend otherwise. The reality is that each cycle is harder than the last. You are competing against a larger pool of participants, and more of them are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Ultimately, there are more losers. If you did not have a substantial portion of your holdings in BTC or SOL during the bear market, you probably did not make money. In fact, you might have been tearing your hair out in frustration. I would have been struggling myself if I had not been using SOL as my unit of account. Yes, we do have some big individual winners, but I suspect that if you engaged in significant speculation on these assets, you might end up giving back a part, or even a large portion, of your gains. This is especially true because people rarely quit while they are ahead after a big win. They say, "There is still time in the cycle," and believe that prices can continue to rise. This is how they end up giving back their gains. The adage "Play a foolish game, win a foolish prize" never fails to hold true. Sometimes, this just plays out over a longer time frame for traders and gamblers.
So, why is this cycle so tough?
PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder)
We have two examples where, in major altcoin cycles, most tokens fell by 90-95%. Add to that the collapse of Luna and FTX, which triggered a chain reaction across the entire industry, causing asset prices to fall even lower than they should have. Many big players were swept out, and we have not yet seen the return of cryptocurrency lending platforms in this cycle. This PTSD has deeply affected crypto natives, especially in the way the altcoin market is traded, as the mainstream view in this cycle has become "everything is a scam." In the previous two cycles, the belief that "this technology is the future" was more widespread, but now it has become a minority view, or is juxtaposed with "everything is a scam." No one wants to hold onto anything for the long term because they simply do not want to lose a large part of their portfolio again. This has created a "maximum jeet cycle." This sentiment is also amplified on Crypto Twitter, as participants constantly seek the top of the cycle.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
This psychological impact is not limited to trading behavior—it also affects the entire ecosystem's attitude towards building and investing. Projects now face higher scrutiny standards, and the threshold for trust has multiplied. This has both positive and negative sides: while it helps filter out obvious scams, it also makes it harder for legitimate projects to get attention.
Innovation
Innovation continues, and infrastructure keeps improving, but there are no more mind-boggling 0-to-1 breakthroughs like DeFi. This makes it easier to accept arguments like "cryptocurrency has not made progress" and leads to more narratives that "cryptocurrency has achieved nothing." The landscape of innovation has shifted from revolutionary breakthroughs to incremental improvements. While this is a natural evolution of any technological development, it poses challenges for a narrative-driven market. We still lack breakthrough applications that are necessary to bring cryptocurrency to hundreds of millions of on-chain users.
Regulation
The corrupt U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has caused chaos. They have hindered the progress of the industry and prevented certain areas (such as DeFi) that could achieve product-market fit (PMF) with a broader audience from further development. They have also prevented all governance tokens from conveying any value to holders, thus creating the narrative that "all these tokens are useless," which is somewhat true. The SEC has driven away developers (see Andre Cronje's description of how the SEC forced him out), prevented traditional finance (TradFi) from interacting with the industry, and ultimately forced the industry to raise funds from venture capital firms. This has led to poor supply and price discovery dynamics, with value being captured by a select few. However, we are now seeing some positive changes, such as Echo, Legion, and more public sales.
Financial Nihilism
All the above factors have led to financial nihilism becoming a significant factor in this cycle. "Useless governance tokens" and the high fully diluted valuation (FDV) and low circulating dynamics caused by the SEC have pushed many crypto natives towards memecoins in search of a "fairer" opportunity. Indeed, in today's society, with asset prices soaring and wages failing to keep up with the endless devaluation of fiat currency, young people are forced to gamble to improve their status. Memecoin lotteries are very attractive. Lotteries are appealing because they offer hope.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
Since gambling has product-market fit (PMF) in cryptocurrency and we have better technology for gambling (such as Solana and Pump.fun), there has been a surge in the issuance of tokens. This is because many people want ultra-high-risk gambling, and where there is demand, there is supply. The "trenches" have always been a part of cryptocurrency, but in this cycle, it has become a widely known term. This nihilistic attitude manifests in several ways:
The rise and mainstreaming of "degen" culture
Shortening of investment time horizons
Greater focus on short-term trading rather than long-term investment
Normalization of extreme leverage and risky behavior
An "I don't care" attitude towards fundamental analysis
Past cycle experiences becoming a hindrance
Previous Cycles' Lessons as a Hindrance
The past few cycles taught people that they could buy some altcoins during bear markets and eventually outperform BTC for returns. This was the best path for most people in the past because few were good traders. Overall, even the worst altcoins had a chance. However, this cycle is a trader's market, more suited for sellers rather than holders. Traders have even gained the biggest returns in this cycle through HYPE airdrops. The narratives in this cycle do not last long, and there are few convincing ones. There are more sophisticated participants in the market who are better at efficiently extracting value, so the mini-altcoin bubbles are not particularly large.
The first hype cycle of AI agents is an example. This might be the first time people felt, "This is the new thing we have been looking for." But it is still in the early stages, and the long-term winners may not have emerged yet.
Bitcoin Has New Buyers, Altcoins Mostly Do Not
The divergence between Bitcoin and other assets has never been so pronounced. Bitcoin has unlocked demand from traditional finance. For the first time, it has an incredible new source of passive demand, with even central banks discussing adding it to their balance sheets. Altcoins, on the other hand, are finding it harder than ever to compete with Bitcoin, which makes sense because Bitcoin has a very clear target—the market cap of gold. Altcoins really do not have new buyers. Some retail investors return when Bitcoin hits new highs (but they buy XRP 💀), but overall, there is insufficient new retail capital inflow, and cryptocurrency still has a bad reputation.
The Changing Role of Ethereum
The decline in Bitcoin's dominance is largely due to the growth in Ethereum's market cap. Many people see Ethereum's rise as the trigger for an "altseason," but this rule of thumb did not work in this cycle because Ethereum underperformed due to fundamental reasons.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
Many traders and investors struggle to accept that Ethereum failed to drive higher risk appetite. In fact, it has been playing the role of ending mini-altseasons, which is the opposite of the past. Despite evidence that some narratives and sectors can operate independently of Ethereum's inaction, many traders still believe that Ethereum needs to rise for a true altseason to begin.
What Should I Do?
So, what should you do from here? Work hard, or work smarter. I still believe that fundamentals will always matter in the long run, but you must truly understand the projects you support and how they can actually outperform Bitcoin. There are only a few candidates that meet this criterion. Look for projects with the following characteristics:
Clear revenue models
Actual product-market fit
Sustainable token economics
Strong narratives that complement fundamentals (I think AI and RWA fit this)
I believe that, thanks to the unlocking of U.S. regulation, projects with stronger fundamentals and product-market fit (PMF) are finally able to accumulate value for their tokens. These projects have become lower-risk choices. Protocols that can generate revenue are now poised to perform well. This is a significant shift from the "greater fool theory" that dominated many previous token models.
If your strategy is to "wait for retail to enter and then sell," I think you will run into a lot of trouble. The market has moved beyond cycles driven purely by retail. Sophisticated participants are likely to get ahead of this obvious strategy.
You can choose to become a better trader, trying to cultivate your own edge and focusing on more short-term trades, as this market does indeed offer many consistent short-term opportunities. On-chain trading can bring greater multiples in returns, but it can also be more ruthless during downturns.
For most people without a clear edge, the "barbell portfolio" remains the best choice. Allocate 70-80% of your funds to BTC and SOL, and then set aside a smaller proportion for more speculative investments. Rebalance regularly to maintain these proportions.
You need to understand how much time you can commit to the cryptocurrency space and adjust your strategy accordingly. If you are an ordinary person with a regular job, you cannot compete with those young people who sit there for 16 hours a day. The strategy of passively holding underperforming altcoins and waiting for your turn does not work in this cycle either.
Another strategy is to try to combine different fields. Build a portfolio based on robust assets, and then look for opportunities like airdrop mining (which is harder now but still has low-risk opportunities), or identify some emerging new ecosystems and get in early (for example, HyperLiquid, Movement, Berachain, etc.), or focus on a specific area.
I still believe that the altcoin market will grow this year. The conditions are in place, and we are still correlated with global liquidity, but only a few sectors and an even smaller number of altcoins will significantly outperform BTC and SOL. Faster altcoin rotations will continue to happen.
If we encounter some crazy money printing, we might see a situation closer to the traditional altcoin season of the past, but I think this possibility is lower than what we hope for. Even in that case, most altcoins will only offer market-average returns. We still have many important altcoins set to launch this year, and liquidity will continue to be diluted and dispersed.
Perspective: Why Is This Cycle So Tough, and What Should We Do?
It is not easy, but let me give you some hope: I have never seen anyone who has been seriously committed to the cryptocurrency space for years fail to make a substantial amount of money. This asset class still has many opportunities and many reasons to be optimistic about its growth. Ultimately, I do not know any more than anyone else; I am just adapting to what I see in this cycle. Also, I must add: We are not in the early stage of the cycle. This is very clear. The bull market has been going on for a long time, and this fact does not change whether you have made money or not. "Control the downside risks, and the upside gains will take care of themselves." This saying will always be true.
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