The elements of the U.S. intelligence community, think tanks, and media organizations (they’re all connected btw) responsible for strategic analysis need to be significantly overhauled.
- They falsely predicted Ukraine would fall in days
- They falsely assessed that the current protests in Iran would not pose a threat to the regime
When the U.S. missed 9/11, 9/11 commission report identified the problem as lack of intelligence sharing, ultimately leading to Palantir.
This works great for tactical, operational, kinetic work.
However we keep missing strategic stuff because the *economic incentives* for analysts are to assess that “nothing ever happens”, because usually, nothing ever happens, and being wrong hurts your career.
The solution is a company with the vision of Palantir but focused on *economic incentives* for analysts and forecasters.
We need to fix this.
Because what else is the world’s premier intelligence and media apparatus missing?
ZIRP was an environment that selected for tactical adeptness and linear storytelling
The current moment calls for strategic understanding and appreciating non-linear systems
I think a lot of people are going to get wrecked
@polymarket is the only media outlet where the situation in Iran is trending
because people who follow the middle east and international security know the current situation is nearing a breaking point
but the legacy media does not proactively look for information - they wait to be briefed by the government and defense/regulatory compliance contractors owned by former government employees
sadly, prediction markets are becoming the best way to re-establish a reflexive relationship with reality
This anon wallet opened yesterday and bought $41,000 of Yes positions on every Iran strike & regime change wallet it could
Is this guy on an aircraft carrier somewhere? I don't think so.
I think it's a non-crypto native Iran expert who recently learned about @polymarket aghast at how mispriced these markets are, considering recent events
Protests are rising. Nation-wide internet blackout.
The media is failing you
