think there’s some confusion as to what i’m getting at here (for me too because i tend to yap):
my thinking is that as we enter an agentic economy, the core shift is not automation of labor but automation of agency
creation, amplification, and coordination become cheap and continuous; attention loses value as does our collective ability to hold it
when agency becomes abundant—when you can deploy ten agents working autonomously around the clock to “make money”—every attention spike gets immediately exploited
nearly everything that makes money on the internet trends towards zero as armies of agents extract deltas and kill arbitration
content produces diminishing returns, memecoins must coerce or compress into tighter windows to survive (seeing this)
the pattern accelerates: a new meta emerges, hundreds of replicas flood the market within hours. a new content format goes viral, hundreds of copies saturate it to zero. a new app appears, hundreds of agents fork and attempt to undermine it
when single agents can no longer compete, they coordinate. they negotiate, form coalitions, operate with zero emotional bias and near-perfect game theory (until we hit agi, at least)
memecoins never had intrinsic value—their value came from temporary asymmetries in timing, narrative, coordination, and collective interest: this is what attention is
agents erase those asymmetries: they become earlier, faster, more aligned. they become coordinated, better capitalized, more deeply embedded in the zeitgeist
eventually all attention becomes agent-driven—influencers, movies, music, news—all manufactured, all agentic
once attention can be manufactured at will, its signals lose credibility. price reflects orchestration, not belief; this is what memecoins always were anyway
belief and belief is fabrication. it’s influence. it’s a function of mimetic desire and emotion—all things that can and will be used against you (seeing this)
this is why pure attention-based assets degrade in agentic environments: when content and emotion become trivial to fabricate, they become impossible to trust (seeing this)
what survives are systems that impose constraint; what survives is the human collective, not the atomized individual, and certainly not a telegram trading group all telling you to buy some thing at the same time
prediction markets gain relevance because they price disagreement, punish error, and converge toward truth rather than amplify noise
they represent the collective, not the coordinated: coordination only pays when it aligns with perceived reality; but markets reveal lived reality and punish any misalignment
in an agentic world, most signals are cheap; attention becomes dismissible; constraint is what becomes scarce
culture persists. expression persists. but truth—and “fairness”—migrate to systems that make conviction costly; that mute bias; that converge toward reality through collective wisdom rather than manufactured consensus
and the future is very likely almost entirely manufactured (seeing this); which is why i think this shift happens a lot faster than many of us want to believe
and why i think memecoins and content(coins) will have a hard time adjusting, as any new user who cares about a level playing field will likely avoid
that said, where there’s money to be made, money will be made until it’s gone—and agents and coordinated insiders will be that nail in the coffin
today i want to talk about prediction markets; and why, as we reach what feels like the final innings of contentcoins as they currently exist, and memecoins in their recent form, the distinction between *information* and *attention* finally matters.
they've told you for years now that memecoins are information markets: the know-all, be-all; surely that wasn't a grift...
caveat: memecoins are not going away. they never will. and contentcoins will also reappear in new shapes; different rails, different monetization models, different audiences. some may stay on crypto rails; others will likely migrate back toward legacy primitives that simply do a better job of compensating creators without financializing every interaction. the difficulty of this should be obvious by now. look at fc. look at lens. look at the various attempts to turn social expression into tradeable supply. it is brutally hard to do well and probably doesn't work. point blank.
but something *is* ending, and that is the idea that memecoins or contentcoins are legitimate stand-ins for information markets.
that framing was always wrong and cost us years in perception degradation.
memecoins are not just bad tools for discovering truth; they are almost anti-informational by design. they reward narrative dominance, coordination, insiders and leverage. they are optimized for persuasion rather than correctness. price does not drift toward reality; it drifts toward whoever controls attention, timing, and supply. vesting schedules matter more than fundamentals. memetics matter more than accuracy. emotion compounds. narratives harden. early holders must recruit belief downstream to exit upstream. what looks like information is often choreography. it's coercion, and almost always a grift.
prediction markets behave in the opposite direction.
they force participants to price uncertainty explicitly. they require conviction to be stated in dollars, not vibes. they impose a real cost for being wrong. over time, exaggeration fades and the signal sharpens. biases on both sides collide and cancel; what remains is probability. pure probability. not spectacle. not exuberance. but probability.
this is not theoretical. prediction markets have quietly outperformed polls, pundits, and traditional forecasting methods for decades. they have repeatedly converged on correct outcomes because they aggregate dispersed beliefs under incentives that punish confidence without accuracy. as markets approach resolution, they become increasingly expensive to lie to. the closer you get to certainty, the more capital it takes to deny it.
this is the crucial distinction: there are markets that *surface belief* and markets that *amplify behavior*.
memecoins do the latter. prediction markets do the former.
memecoins spread faster than they resolve. participation grows; clarity thins. they expand narratives. whereas prediction markets compress. they strip away bravado. they mute excess. they collapse hype into a digestable parimutuel odds.
none of this denies the cultural or social role of memecoins and contentcoins. they can coordinate. they can express identity. they can mobilize groups. but they age poorly as carriers of knowledge. they are attention instruments, not truth instruments. attention is volatile, manipulable, and time-dependent. information endures.
memecoins feed on exuberance and breed manipulation. prediction markets feed on aggregation and breed truth.
we confused confidence with insight. we tried to impose behaviors we *thought* users should want instead of observing revealed preferences. we tried to financialize expression and call it information. that inversion was always unstable.
yes, prediction markets are not immune to manipulation. institutions exist. syndicates exist. coordination exists everywhere capital does. but the cost of sustained distortion is higher, and the window, narrower. such that manipulation becomes expensive precisely when it matters most.
ultimately, all markets reflect perceived reality but prediction markets almost always reflect revealed reality.
that is why they feel like a new primitive. not because they are flashy, but because they are disciplined. they do not require momentum to be right. they do not require belief propagation to function. they do not require leaders to double or triple down or vc thinkbois to convince you otherwise. they do not force you to adopt unfamiliar behaviors. you can enter, exit, and correct at any moment. truth does not need defenders; it only needs pricing.
believe in something? more like believe in nothing. at least not until the collective tells you otherwise; not the trading groups, but the aggregate. and in the era of agentic economies, this likely becomes the only way to find truth.
you can be wrong in a memecoin and still make a lot of money.
you cannot be wrong in a prediction market (at resolution) and make money. this tells you everything you need to know about how valuable information asymmetry within these markets and how these coins are horrible proxies of information, let alone truth.
memecoins accelerate emotion rather than resolving uncertainty.
prediction markets resolve uncertainty by punishing emotion.
not all markets encode information equally. prediction markets compress widely distributed beliefs into a single probabilistic signal with minimal narrative overhead. memecoins encode social dynamics; power, coordination, coercion.
one tries to exploit culture.
the other produces knowledge.
here is to no longer confusing the two.
this is the right move
setting aside the inaccuracies from noisy data and the sheer volume of tokens; not to mention, features that are already served better elsewhere as a primary products, there is a deeper issue here
we underestimate the mimetic, psychological damage of opening a token page and seeing a holder base universally down 60 or 70%
worse still, discovery often happens through a shared card broadcasting a -60% pnl: that moment becomes a contagion
the reality is that we are several abstractions removed from equities, which are already risk-on assets under extreme volatility and macro pressures. the resulting downstream reflexivity is brutal, particularly for builders thinking in multi-year horizons
price is not the signal. holder quality and turnover are. conviction is what will matter going forward, especially as revenue-sharing matures and projects seek to escape any single ecosystem’s gravity into independence
the purpose of fc is not to optimize for short-term price action; it is to provide the momentum and distribution required to secure initial investor capital and a committed core user base; enough to eventually escape
a persistent fixation on price and trading caps that vision: it forces builders to ship token-first features immediately post-tge or accept extraction during the initial run, forcing them into the same mimetic trap thereafter if they choose to focus on product first
for a builder, a token is day one. but when profit and trading dominate the native launch platform, initial token performance becomes the final act
what we need instead is a living database of ecosystem tokens, grounded in conviction-based metrics, and centered on the developer, the vision, the execution, and the path forward
to do this properly, we must meet smart money where it already is and give it the data it actually values—just as we have long done for traders to our own demise
give me a dev log before a pnl card
give me lock-ups before charts
i do not care who lost money or who round-tripped or extracted the top
i care about the caliber of the builder, the integrity of the project, and the quality and conviction of the early holders standing beside them
seemingly one of the easiest ways to make a bag in this space is to find a cracked dev building an agent, launch a token for it, direct fees to it and then coerce it into koling itself
if the dev leans in, it usually runs as the coercer themselves is usually a kol with established trench distribution
build into the market or the market will do it for you: binary risk with activism tactics
in the suburbs, if you go outside and start snowblowing, all of the neighbors who don’t have a snowblower come out and start standing around with a shovel looking sad
we got at least 14 inches
3.5 houses is good
i can’t do the whole block, fellas
not one for politics; but…
the corpo-techno imperialist surveillance state became irreversible under obama in 2010
citizens united was the legal unmasking; tho globalization and financialization had already hollowed out sovereignty
in other words: it was inevitable either way, china would come knocking in time
the first weed seen by the public surfaced under nixon, when corruption stopped being exceptional and became systemic
it was then legitimized in 76 under ford, when money was constitutionally protected as speech
the illusion of democracy emerged in the 80s under reagan, when markets, consumption, and cultural wars replaced civic power; when news became entertainment
the system was fully consolidated in the 90s under the clintons and bushs, when both parties aligned around the same donors, institutions, and global order
this has nothing to do with liberals or maga, neither of these groups, nor the others, have independent thought
it is the result of a decades-long convergence of capital, state power, media, and technology: a playbook that has now been replicated across the eu
this is a system that now reproduces itself regardless of who is elected
so chill with the “this side, that side”; there has effectively been only one side for well over fifty years now
and love thy neighbor, regardless of the color of the flag they fly, for they are not the enemy, but a fellow victim of a system that once promised to protect them
a system that now manipulates them into turning against that very neighbor
not gonna fight anyone on any of this: it doesn’t matter…
as always, we go one way; always has been…
hope everyone stocked up on a minimum six month supply of toilet paper and food ahead of the four inches of snow we will be getting on sunday
im talking minimum six months! at least 60 rolls!
everybody panic!
gordon gecko would’ve loved prediction markets.
people are getting upset about how off-base, outrageous, and factually incorrect many of these takes are around the fc acquisition. as if truth is suddenly supposed to matter now. as if it has meaningfully mattered anytime in the last half-century.
people are just saying things. loudly. confidently. strategically. that alone should tell us everything we need to know about the moment we’re in.
it’s not an anomaly; but the convergence i speak to. the media environment, incentive structures, and platforms all bend in the same direction. outrage converts. certainty performs. theatrics spread. nuance dies quietly in the corner. none of this is accidental, and none of it is new—it’s just finally undeniable.
words have become cheap because they are infinite. trust has collapsed because it has become purchaseable. when everyone speaks at once, when everything has a price, language loses scarcity and meaning, and without that there is no value. this isn’t limited to anons or bad actors. it runs from presidents to CEOs, from senators to founders, from platform owners to VCs. everyone is positioning; almost no one is informing: truth is incidental at best.
and why wouldn’t it be? there is no revenue in truth. no growth curve. no algorithmic reward. truth does not scale; emotion does. sex does. headlines do.
what makes this moment especially absurd is that we live in a time of unprecedented access to information. if you want an answer, you no longer need to sift through results, you simply ask a question in natural language and receive an answer instantly. check another model if you want. triangulate if you’re careful. the information is there.
and yet it still doesn’t matter.
because the bottleneck is no longer access to facts; it’s willingness to care about them: it’s what’s in it for me? narrative always beats accuracy. identity beats evidence. propaganda beats explanation. this is why platforms skew the way they do. this is why gen z politics are polarizing the way they are. this is why every feed feels increasingly detached from lived reality. none of this is objective. all of it is shaped. go figure.
so getting worked up about what people say misses the point. words are no longer commitments; they’re mimetic instruments. most aren’t even human anymore. bots, agents, incentive-aligned posters, conflict accelerants. noise generating more noise. cortisol as a business model. how american.
the irony is that this may be the condition that finally forces us back toward something resembling truth.
not truth as moral authority or institutional credibility—but truth as cost. truth as risk. truth as signal.
this is why prediction markets are interesting. not because they are pure or ethical or well-designed today—they’re not—but because they reintroduce consequence. if you have to put up capital, you can’t posture endlessly. if you’re wrong, you pay. if you’re right, you’re rewarded. information stops being free again.
maybe that’s where we end up. not trusting what people say, but watching what they’re willing to bet. not listening to certainty, but measuring exposure. not debating narratives, but observing where informed actors place real weight… where have we heard that before?
it’s not pretty. it’s not idealistic. but in a world where language has been stripped of meaning, capital may be the last honest medium left. capital that is backed by power. power that incapable of denying capital itself.
funny how the very thing that caused us to drift from truth, may be the only thing that gets us back to some semblance of it.
so don’t stress over the words. they’re empty. they’re abundant. they’re designed to provoke you.
truth, if it returns at all, won’t come from what people say.
it’ll come from what they’re willing to risk.
it will come from greed itself.
