Introduction

At the start of 2025, the global capital markets are experiencing a split scenario. Recently, spot gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs. As of February 16, COMEX gold futures prices surged to $2,968 per ounce, with a maximum annual increase of nearly 10%, just a stone's throw away from the $3,000 mark.

In contrast, Bitcoin, after breaking through the $100,000 high point, has been oscillating between $90,000 and $110,000, showing a year-to-date weakness that contradicts its emerging status as a safe-haven asset. This fluctuation not only reveals the current pricing logic differences between the two types of assets but also points to the global capital's re-calibration of risk scales in the "Trump 2.0 era."

Bitcoin vs. Gold: From Safe-Haven Narrative to Functional Divergence

The evolution of Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks and gold is essentially a process of shifting identity recognition in its financialization. Measured by the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and traditional assets, it shows significant dynamic changes.

Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has a complex relationship with Bitcoin. Long-term data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is markedly unstable, frequently fluctuating between positive and negative values. In the early days, the two often had a negative correlation, with Bitcoin being seen as a "digital substitute" for gold. However, since the market turmoil in 2022, the two have shown synchronized trends on multiple occasions. In late 2024, the correlation turned positive but remained volatile.

This contradiction stems from the differences in their attributes: Gold's safe-haven function relies on its physical properties and historical consensus, while Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative is more dependent on market sentiment and technological expectations. In 2021, when Bitcoin hit a record high, gold prices were in a trough. Starting in 2024, both began to rise synchronously due to factors like central bank gold purchases and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. This shows that their correlation is driven by phased events rather than an inevitable link of intrinsic value logic.

US Stock Linkage and the Dual Helix Structure Under Liquidity Siphoning

Regarding US stocks, Bitcoin is often categorized as a "risk asset," with its price trend showing a significant positive correlation with the Nasdaq Index, which is dominated by tech stocks. This correlation peaked in 2021 when both reached historical highs and then corrected, and again in late 2022 when they both rebounded from the bottom, showing consistency in market behavior driven by risk preferences.

Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 Index shows a more moderate positive correlation, with the correlation coefficient mostly staying between 0 and 0.5. Bitcoin's gains significantly outpace the S&P 500, and the price coordination is clearer in high-value areas. This relationship was particularly evident in late 2024 when expectations of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance warmed, boosting risk assets universally.

During periods when the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, this coordination even surpasses the traditional negative correlation strength between tech stocks and bonds. The association's intensity has exceeded the group effect among traditional tech stocks, suggesting that cryptocurrencies are systematically embedded in the valuation system of growth stocks. However, it's important to note that this positive correlation shows significant asymmetry: during market downturns, the correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and US stocks' declines is not high, revealing its excess risk premium feature under high volatility.

This phenomenon can be explained from the perspectives of market psychology and liquidity. When the global economic outlook is positive, investors' risk appetite increases, and funds flow into both US stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. Conversely, when market risk aversion rises, both may come under pressure. QUICK FactSet data shows that the total market value of global stocks denominated in US dollars increased by $13.6 trillion from the end of 2023, reaching $121.8 trillion. Bitcoin's concurrent increase exceeded 150%, confirming the joint push of liquidity looseness and risk preference on both. However, the high valuation of US stocks also implies correction risks. If the stock market corrects, Bitcoin may face synchronous pressure, while gold may benefit from safe-haven demand.

Reconfiguration of Financial Attributes

The changes in Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks and gold reflect the structural transformation of participants in the crypto market. Early on, Bitcoin was mainly held by retail investors and geek communities, with its price independent of the traditional financial system. However, after 2020, the entry of institutional investors accelerated its financialization, making it more susceptible to the contagion of US stock market sentiment. The growth in open interest of CME Bitcoin futures further reinforced this path. Additionally, the US SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and regulatory policy differences among countries also have long-term impacts on Bitcoin's asset attribute positioning.

The high-level oscillation of Bitcoin after breaking through its $100,000 record high is due to the interaction of multiple market forces. On one hand, early investors are gradually cashing in their profits at high levels, while new funds brought by ETFs and other institutional channels form a strong承接，这种买卖双方力量的此消彼长导致价格在区间内剧烈波动。

On the other hand, the market is still in a period of easing expectations, with large-scale liquidity injections yet to materialize. The market is primarily driven by existing funds rotating between different price levels, and the lack of sustained incremental capital inflows also limits the upward momentum after breaking new highs. Meanwhile, the use of leveraged instruments such as futures and perpetual contracts is more active, and high leverage amplifies price volatility. Frequent forced liquidations further exacerbate market fluctuations.

However, overall, the reflexivity of technological innovation is also giving birth to new possibilities. Bitcoin is now being incorporated into the balance sheet management framework of sovereign wealth funds. Appropriate allocation of crypto assets can enhance tail-risk defense capabilities while maintaining stable Sharpe ratios. This functional evolution suggests that the association between crypto assets and traditional assets will develop into a more complex hierarchical structure, acting as a risk asset during macroeconomic stability and releasing non-linear correlations during systemic crises, eventually evolving into an independent asset class positioning.

In the myth of Noah's Ark, clean creatures entered in pairs, while unclean creatures went their own way. The correlation conundrum of Bitcoin and traditional assets is like a "financial monster" in the digital civilization flood that can't find a companion. Perhaps this lack of correlation is its true nature, neither needing to benchmark against a millennium-old hard currency nor fitting into a tech bubble, but rather redefining the value coordinates as a blockchain-native alien asset.

Introduction

At the start of 2025, the global capital markets are experiencing a split scenario. Recently, spot gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs. As of February 16, COMEX gold futures prices surged to $2,968 per ounce, with a maximum annual increase of nearly 10%, just a stone's throw away from the $3,000 mark.

In contrast, Bitcoin, after breaking through the $100,000 high point, has been oscillating between $90,000 and $110,000, showing a year-to-date weakness that contradicts its emerging status as a safe-haven asset. This fluctuation not only reveals the current pricing logic differences between the two types of assets but also points to the global capital's re-calibration of risk scales in the "Trump 2.0 era."

Bitcoin vs. Gold: From Safe-Haven Narrative to Functional Divergence

The evolution of Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks and gold is essentially a process of shifting identity recognition in its financialization. Measured by the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and traditional assets, it shows significant dynamic changes.

Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has a complex relationship with Bitcoin. Long-term data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is markedly unstable, frequently fluctuating between positive and negative values. In the early days, the two often had a negative correlation, with Bitcoin being seen as a "digital substitute" for gold. However, since the market turmoil in 2022, the two have shown synchronized trends on multiple occasions. In late 2024, the correlation turned positive but remained volatile.

This contradiction stems from the differences in their attributes: Gold's safe-haven function relies on its physical properties and historical consensus, while Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative is more dependent on market sentiment and technological expectations. In 2021, when Bitcoin hit a record high, gold prices were in a trough. Starting in 2024, both began to rise synchronously due to factors like central bank gold purchases and the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. This shows that their correlation is driven by phased events rather than an inevitable link of intrinsic value logic.

US Stock Linkage and the Dual Helix Structure Under Liquidity Siphoning

Regarding US stocks, Bitcoin is often categorized as a "risk asset," with its price trend showing a significant positive correlation with the Nasdaq Index, which is dominated by tech stocks. This correlation peaked in 2021 when both reached historical highs and then corrected, and again in late 2022 when they both rebounded from the bottom, showing consistency in market behavior driven by risk preferences.

Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 Index shows a more moderate positive correlation, with the correlation coefficient mostly staying between 0 and 0.5. Bitcoin's gains significantly outpace the S&P 500, and the price coordination is clearer in high-value areas. This relationship was particularly evident in late 2024 when expectations of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance warmed, boosting risk assets universally.

During periods when the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts, this coordination even surpasses the traditional negative correlation strength between tech stocks and bonds. The association's intensity has exceeded the group effect among traditional tech stocks, suggesting that cryptocurrencies are systematically embedded in the valuation system of growth stocks. However, it's important to note that this positive correlation shows significant asymmetry: during market downturns, the correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and US stocks' declines is not high, revealing its excess risk premium feature under high volatility.

This phenomenon can be explained from the perspectives of market psychology and liquidity. When the global economic outlook is positive, investors' risk appetite increases, and funds flow into both US stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. Conversely, when market risk aversion rises, both may come under pressure. QUICK FactSet data shows that the total market value of global stocks denominated in US dollars increased by $13.6 trillion from the end of 2023, reaching $121.8 trillion. Bitcoin's concurrent increase exceeded 150%, confirming the joint push of liquidity looseness and risk preference on both. However, the high valuation of US stocks also implies correction risks. If the stock market corrects, Bitcoin may face synchronous pressure, while gold may benefit from safe-haven demand.

Reconfiguration of Financial Attributes

The changes in Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks and gold reflect the structural transformation of participants in the crypto market. Early on, Bitcoin was mainly held by retail investors and geek communities, with its price independent of the traditional financial system. However, after 2020, the entry of institutional investors accelerated its financialization, making it more susceptible to the contagion of US stock market sentiment. The growth in open interest of CME Bitcoin futures further reinforced this path. Additionally, the US SEC's approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and regulatory policy differences among countries also have long-term impacts on Bitcoin's asset attribute positioning.

The high-level oscillation of Bitcoin after breaking through its $100,000 record high is due to the interaction of multiple market forces. On one hand, early investors are gradually cashing in their profits at high levels, while new funds brought by ETFs and other institutional channels form a strong承接，这种买卖双方力量的此消彼长导致价格在区间内剧烈波动。

On the other hand, the market is still in a period of easing expectations, with large-scale liquidity injections yet to materialize. The market is primarily driven by existing funds rotating between different price levels, and the lack of sustained incremental capital inflows also limits the upward momentum after breaking new highs. Meanwhile, the use of leveraged instruments such as futures and perpetual contracts is more active, and high leverage amplifies price volatility. Frequent forced liquidations further exacerbate market fluctuations.

However, overall, the reflexivity of technological innovation is also giving birth to new possibilities. Bitcoin is now being incorporated into the balance sheet management framework of sovereign wealth funds. Appropriate allocation of crypto assets can enhance tail-risk defense capabilities while maintaining stable Sharpe ratios. This functional evolution suggests that the association between crypto assets and traditional assets will develop into a more complex hierarchical structure, acting as a risk asset during macroeconomic stability and releasing non-linear correlations during systemic crises, eventually evolving into an independent asset class positioning.

In the myth of Noah's Ark, clean creatures entered in pairs, while unclean creatures went their own way. The correlation conundrum of Bitcoin and traditional assets is like a "financial monster" in the digital civilization flood that can't find a companion. Perhaps this lack of correlation is its true nature, neither needing to benchmark against a millennium-old hard currency nor fitting into a tech bubble, but rather redefining the value coordinates as a blockchain-native alien asset.