Bitcoin appears to be poised for another upward move and may reach new highs in the third or early fourth quarter if traditional markets don't further deteriorate.

Bitcoin did not start 2025 with the explosive rally many anticipated. After peaking above $100K, the price dropped significantly, leaving investors and analysts wondering where Bitcoin is in the halving cycle. In this article, we'll examine on-chain indicators and macro signals to determine if the bull market can continue or if a deeper pullback is coming.

Healthy Pullback or Bull Market End? The MVRV-Z indicator, which compares market value to realized value, has fallen from 3.36 to near 1.43 as Bitcoin dropped from nearly $100K to a $75K low. A 30% price drop is substantial, yet historically, current MVRV-Z levels signal local bottoms, not tops. Similar pullbacks in 2017 and 2021 were followed by upward trends.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 1: Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from the 2025 low of 1.43.

Tracking Smart Money The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple, which weights Bitcoin transfers by holding time, is in the "green zone," similar to bear market ends or early recovery. This suggests profit-taking is ending and accumulation is beginning.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates long-term holders are accumulating.

The "Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart" shows capital migration paths by coin age. The red band (new entrants) spiked near the $106K peak, indicating FOMO-driven buying. Its activity has since cooled. Meanwhile, the 1 - 2-year holder group is accumulating again. This pattern mirrors the "accumulation - distribution" in the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 3: The chart shows Bitcoin is flowing back to more experienced holders.

Where Are We Now? From a macro view, the Bitcoin market cycle has three stages:

• Bear Market Stage: Deep pullbacks (70 - 90%)

• Recovery Stage: Retracing previous highs

• Bull Market Growth Stage: Parabolic rises after breaking previous highs

The 2015 and 2018 bear markets lasted 13 - 14 months, like our recent 14-month bear cycle. The recovery stage usually takes 23 - 26 months, and we're in that window now.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 4: Using historical cycle trends to predict potential bull peaks.

This bull market is unusual as Bitcoin pulled back after breaking the previous high. This might mean the market is forming a higher low before a steep upward channel. Referring to past cycles, if the bull market continues, the potential top might be around September 2025.

Macro Risks Despite positive on-chain data, macro headwinds remain. Bitcoin still correlates highly with U.S. stocks. Persistent weakness in traditional markets due to global recession fears could affect Bitcoin's short-term rebound.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 5: Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks.

Conclusion Key on-chain indicators like MVRV Z, VDD, and Bitcoin cycle capital flows show the market is following and long-term holders are accumulating. However, significant macro uncertainties remain. This cycle is slower and more volatile but follows the historical pattern. Bitcoin seems ready to move upward again and may hit new highs in Q3 or early Q4 if traditional markets don't worsen further.

Bitcoin appears to be poised for another upward move and may reach new highs in the third or early fourth quarter if traditional markets don't further deteriorate.

Bitcoin did not start 2025 with the explosive rally many anticipated. After peaking above $100K, the price dropped significantly, leaving investors and analysts wondering where Bitcoin is in the halving cycle. In this article, we'll examine on-chain indicators and macro signals to determine if the bull market can continue or if a deeper pullback is coming.

Healthy Pullback or Bull Market End? The MVRV-Z indicator, which compares market value to realized value, has fallen from 3.36 to near 1.43 as Bitcoin dropped from nearly $100K to a $75K low. A 30% price drop is substantial, yet historically, current MVRV-Z levels signal local bottoms, not tops. Similar pullbacks in 2017 and 2021 were followed by upward trends.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 1: Recently, the MVRV Z-Score has rebounded from the 2025 low of 1.43.

Tracking Smart Money The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple, which weights Bitcoin transfers by holding time, is in the "green zone," similar to bear market ends or early recovery. This suggests profit-taking is ending and accumulation is beginning.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 2: The current VDD multiple indicates long-term holders are accumulating.

The "Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow Chart" shows capital migration paths by coin age. The red band (new entrants) spiked near the $106K peak, indicating FOMO-driven buying. Its activity has since cooled. Meanwhile, the 1 - 2-year holder group is accumulating again. This pattern mirrors the "accumulation - distribution" in the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 3: The chart shows Bitcoin is flowing back to more experienced holders.

Where Are We Now? From a macro view, the Bitcoin market cycle has three stages:

• Bear Market Stage: Deep pullbacks (70 - 90%)

• Recovery Stage: Retracing previous highs

• Bull Market Growth Stage: Parabolic rises after breaking previous highs

The 2015 and 2018 bear markets lasted 13 - 14 months, like our recent 14-month bear cycle. The recovery stage usually takes 23 - 26 months, and we're in that window now.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 4: Using historical cycle trends to predict potential bull peaks.

This bull market is unusual as Bitcoin pulled back after breaking the previous high. This might mean the market is forming a higher low before a steep upward channel. Referring to past cycles, if the bull market continues, the potential top might be around September 2025.

Macro Risks Despite positive on-chain data, macro headwinds remain. Bitcoin still correlates highly with U.S. stocks. Persistent weakness in traditional markets due to global recession fears could affect Bitcoin's short-term rebound.

From $100K to $75K: The Cycle Truth and Bull Market Restart Signal Figure 5: Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks.

Conclusion Key on-chain indicators like MVRV Z, VDD, and Bitcoin cycle capital flows show the market is following and long-term holders are accumulating. However, significant macro uncertainties remain. This cycle is slower and more volatile but follows the historical pattern. Bitcoin seems ready to move upward again and may hit new highs in Q3 or early Q4 if traditional markets don't worsen further.