1. The Cycle That Doesn’t Feel Like One
From the April 2024 halving to the October 2025 all-time high of $125 k, Bitcoin took 18 months—right on schedule if you still count in “halving time”. But the ride was eerily calm: no 30 % daily candles, no taxi-driver shills, no Coin App store-top downloads. The blow-off top lasted three weeks and gave back 25 % in a single month. Retail never showed up; dominance is still 59 %. Alts rotated, but in short, disjointed bursts. Net result: a 7-8 × bounce off the 2022 low, <2 × from halving to peak—the smallest expansion in any halving era. Something feels off.

2. What Still Rhymes

• Supply maths: 3.125 BTC per block is already priced in, yet the stock-to-flow shock keeps biting. Illiquid supply keeps rising post-halving, exactly like 2017 and 2021.

• On-chain oscillators: MVRV, SOPR, RHODL all printed textbook mid-cycle reset in Q3 2024 and peaked again in Q4 2025. The amplitude is smaller, but the cadence is intact.

• Diminishing returns: +20 × (2013), +3.5 × (2017), +80 % (2025) is a straight line on a log chart—exactly what you expect as the asset class grows from micro-cap to mega-cap.

3. Why the Narrative Fractured
a) ETF “slow money” – Spot ETFs now hold 6 % of circulating BTC. Flows are sticky, options-based, volatility-selling. They blunt upside reflexivity but also create a $89 k average-cost floor. When 24-hour net outflows hit $523 m last week, price gapped down 8 %—a taste of how the new plumbing transmits shocks.

b) Narrative hyper-fragmentation – 2021 had DeFi → NFTs. 2025 had Ordinals → Solana memes → AI tokens → InfoFi → prediction markets → pay-to-pay protocols. Attention spans are now shorter than block times; capital never stays long enough to brew a super-cycle.

c) Reflexivity front-running – Everyone “knew” Q4 2025 was the cycle top. Futures open interest hit 600 k BTC six months early; miners pre-hedged; VCs unlocked into strength. The prophecy fulfilled itself—just faster and quieter.

4. The Expert Split

• “Cycle is dead” camp – @BTCdayu, Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin is now an institutionally-driven macro asset; halvings are folklore.

• “Cycle is morphing” camp – @0xSunNFT, @lanhubiji: Halving still sets the metronome, but amplitude is damped and phase-shifted by ETFs, derivatives and narrative noise.

• “Same as ever” camp – @Wolfy_XBT: Peak was 6 Oct 2025; we are in early bear—exactly four years after the last one.

5. Survival Guide for Retail
Stop circle-drawing on the calendar. Watch three live signals instead:

1. ETF daily flow turning positive for 10+ consecutive days.

2. Coin per share rising in the largest DATs (MSTR, BMNR, HSDT)—they are the fastest on-chain reporters.

3. MVRV resetting below 1.8 with SOPR <1 for two weeks—classic washout prints.

Until two of the three flash green, treat every bounce as a bear-market rally. Keep 30–50 % dry powder, ladder stables into 6-month T-bills, and remember: in a low-vol regime, the crowd dies of boredom long before the final bottom. Outlasting the noise is the new outperforming.

1. The Cycle That Doesn’t Feel Like One
From the April 2024 halving to the October 2025 all-time high of $125 k, Bitcoin took 18 months—right on schedule if you still count in “halving time”. But the ride was eerily calm: no 30 % daily candles, no taxi-driver shills, no Coin App store-top downloads. The blow-off top lasted three weeks and gave back 25 % in a single month. Retail never showed up; dominance is still 59 %. Alts rotated, but in short, disjointed bursts. Net result: a 7-8 × bounce off the 2022 low, <2 × from halving to peak—the smallest expansion in any halving era. Something feels off.

2. What Still Rhymes

• Supply maths: 3.125 BTC per block is already priced in, yet the stock-to-flow shock keeps biting. Illiquid supply keeps rising post-halving, exactly like 2017 and 2021.

• On-chain oscillators: MVRV, SOPR, RHODL all printed textbook mid-cycle reset in Q3 2024 and peaked again in Q4 2025. The amplitude is smaller, but the cadence is intact.

• Diminishing returns: +20 × (2013), +3.5 × (2017), +80 % (2025) is a straight line on a log chart—exactly what you expect as the asset class grows from micro-cap to mega-cap.

3. Why the Narrative Fractured
a) ETF “slow money” – Spot ETFs now hold 6 % of circulating BTC. Flows are sticky, options-based, volatility-selling. They blunt upside reflexivity but also create a $89 k average-cost floor. When 24-hour net outflows hit $523 m last week, price gapped down 8 %—a taste of how the new plumbing transmits shocks.

b) Narrative hyper-fragmentation – 2021 had DeFi → NFTs. 2025 had Ordinals → Solana memes → AI tokens → InfoFi → prediction markets → pay-to-pay protocols. Attention spans are now shorter than block times; capital never stays long enough to brew a super-cycle.

c) Reflexivity front-running – Everyone “knew” Q4 2025 was the cycle top. Futures open interest hit 600 k BTC six months early; miners pre-hedged; VCs unlocked into strength. The prophecy fulfilled itself—just faster and quieter.

4. The Expert Split

• “Cycle is dead” camp – @BTCdayu, Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin is now an institutionally-driven macro asset; halvings are folklore.

• “Cycle is morphing” camp – @0xSunNFT, @lanhubiji: Halving still sets the metronome, but amplitude is damped and phase-shifted by ETFs, derivatives and narrative noise.

• “Same as ever” camp – @Wolfy_XBT: Peak was 6 Oct 2025; we are in early bear—exactly four years after the last one.

5. Survival Guide for Retail
Stop circle-drawing on the calendar. Watch three live signals instead:

1. ETF daily flow turning positive for 10+ consecutive days.

2. Coin per share rising in the largest DATs (MSTR, BMNR, HSDT)—they are the fastest on-chain reporters.

3. MVRV resetting below 1.8 with SOPR <1 for two weeks—classic washout prints.

Until two of the three flash green, treat every bounce as a bear-market rally. Keep 30–50 % dry powder, ladder stables into 6-month T-bills, and remember: in a low-vol regime, the crowd dies of boredom long before the final bottom. Outlasting the noise is the new outperforming.