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Has the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Broken Down?
From Virtual NPC to Intelligent Agent: How does the AI-driven game world subvert reality?
I. From Tic - Tac - Toe to El Dorado: The Evolutionary Path of AI in Games1952: "OXO Tic - Tac - Toe" Opens the Door to AI - based Games The earliest intersection of AI and video games can be traced back to 1952. "OXO Tic - Tac - Toe" developed by A.S. Douglas was the first game driven by AI rules. Although this AI could only respond to preset rules, it laid the foundation for the future development of AI in games. Its static nature revealed that early AI could only passively respond, lacking...
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This guide delves into the evolving mining strategies within the HyperEVM ecosystem, including their development trajectory, who is most likely to earn rewards, and how to position yourself during this early phase. The following content has been reorganized for clarity: Unless you've been completely disconnected from the crypto sphere, you've likely noticed: Hyperliquid is everywhere. It's one of the few projects that executed its TGE strategy flawlessly, not only generating substantial wealt...
Is RWA Entering the Next Phase? Can Aptos Achieve a Leapfrog Victory?
RWA Sector Status and Potential The RWA (Real World Assets) sector, while highly anticipated, has yet to demonstrate its potential to connect trillions of dollars in traditional market assets. According to rwa.xyz, the total market capitalization of RWA assets in the crypto industry is only $24 billion, and this is after a sharp 56% increase in the first half of this year. This indicates that the RWA narrative is not over, but rather has not yet truly begun. As US stocks move on-chain and mor...
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1. The Cycle That Doesn’t Feel Like One
From the April 2024 halving to the October 2025 all-time high of $125 k, Bitcoin took 18 months—right on schedule if you still count in “halving time”. But the ride was eerily calm: no 30 % daily candles, no taxi-driver shills, no Coin App store-top downloads. The blow-off top lasted three weeks and gave back 25 % in a single month. Retail never showed up; dominance is still 59 %. Alts rotated, but in short, disjointed bursts. Net result: a 7-8 × bounce off the 2022 low, <2 × from halving to peak—the smallest expansion in any halving era. Something feels off.
2. What Still Rhymes
Supply maths: 3.125 BTC per block is already priced in, yet the stock-to-flow shock keeps biting. Illiquid supply keeps rising post-halving, exactly like 2017 and 2021.
On-chain oscillators: MVRV, SOPR, RHODL all printed textbook mid-cycle reset in Q3 2024 and peaked again in Q4 2025. The amplitude is smaller, but the cadence is intact.
Diminishing returns: +20 × (2013), +3.5 × (2017), +80 % (2025) is a straight line on a log chart—exactly what you expect as the asset class grows from micro-cap to mega-cap.
3. Why the Narrative Fractured
a) ETF “slow money” – Spot ETFs now hold 6 % of circulating BTC. Flows are sticky, options-based, volatility-selling. They blunt upside reflexivity but also create a $89 k average-cost floor. When 24-hour net outflows hit $523 m last week, price gapped down 8 %—a taste of how the new plumbing transmits shocks.
b) Narrative hyper-fragmentation – 2021 had DeFi → NFTs. 2025 had Ordinals → Solana memes → AI tokens → InfoFi → prediction markets → pay-to-pay protocols. Attention spans are now shorter than block times; capital never stays long enough to brew a super-cycle.
c) Reflexivity front-running – Everyone “knew” Q4 2025 was the cycle top. Futures open interest hit 600 k BTC six months early; miners pre-hedged; VCs unlocked into strength. The prophecy fulfilled itself—just faster and quieter.
4. The Expert Split
“Cycle is dead” camp – @BTCdayu, Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin is now an institutionally-driven macro asset; halvings are folklore.
“Cycle is morphing” camp – @0xSunNFT, @lanhubiji: Halving still sets the metronome, but amplitude is damped and phase-shifted by ETFs, derivatives and narrative noise.
“Same as ever” camp – @Wolfy_XBT: Peak was 6 Oct 2025; we are in early bear—exactly four years after the last one.
5. Survival Guide for Retail
Stop circle-drawing on the calendar. Watch three live signals instead:
ETF daily flow turning positive for 10+ consecutive days.
Coin per share rising in the largest DATs (MSTR, BMNR, HSDT)—they are the fastest on-chain reporters.
MVRV resetting below 1.8 with SOPR <1 for two weeks—classic washout prints.
Until two of the three flash green, treat every bounce as a bear-market rally. Keep 30–50 % dry powder, ladder stables into 6-month T-bills, and remember: in a low-vol regime, the crowd dies of boredom long before the final bottom. Outlasting the noise is the new outperforming.
1. The Cycle That Doesn’t Feel Like One
From the April 2024 halving to the October 2025 all-time high of $125 k, Bitcoin took 18 months—right on schedule if you still count in “halving time”. But the ride was eerily calm: no 30 % daily candles, no taxi-driver shills, no Coin App store-top downloads. The blow-off top lasted three weeks and gave back 25 % in a single month. Retail never showed up; dominance is still 59 %. Alts rotated, but in short, disjointed bursts. Net result: a 7-8 × bounce off the 2022 low, <2 × from halving to peak—the smallest expansion in any halving era. Something feels off.
2. What Still Rhymes
Supply maths: 3.125 BTC per block is already priced in, yet the stock-to-flow shock keeps biting. Illiquid supply keeps rising post-halving, exactly like 2017 and 2021.
On-chain oscillators: MVRV, SOPR, RHODL all printed textbook mid-cycle reset in Q3 2024 and peaked again in Q4 2025. The amplitude is smaller, but the cadence is intact.
Diminishing returns: +20 × (2013), +3.5 × (2017), +80 % (2025) is a straight line on a log chart—exactly what you expect as the asset class grows from micro-cap to mega-cap.
3. Why the Narrative Fractured
a) ETF “slow money” – Spot ETFs now hold 6 % of circulating BTC. Flows are sticky, options-based, volatility-selling. They blunt upside reflexivity but also create a $89 k average-cost floor. When 24-hour net outflows hit $523 m last week, price gapped down 8 %—a taste of how the new plumbing transmits shocks.
b) Narrative hyper-fragmentation – 2021 had DeFi → NFTs. 2025 had Ordinals → Solana memes → AI tokens → InfoFi → prediction markets → pay-to-pay protocols. Attention spans are now shorter than block times; capital never stays long enough to brew a super-cycle.
c) Reflexivity front-running – Everyone “knew” Q4 2025 was the cycle top. Futures open interest hit 600 k BTC six months early; miners pre-hedged; VCs unlocked into strength. The prophecy fulfilled itself—just faster and quieter.
4. The Expert Split
“Cycle is dead” camp – @BTCdayu, Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin is now an institutionally-driven macro asset; halvings are folklore.
“Cycle is morphing” camp – @0xSunNFT, @lanhubiji: Halving still sets the metronome, but amplitude is damped and phase-shifted by ETFs, derivatives and narrative noise.
“Same as ever” camp – @Wolfy_XBT: Peak was 6 Oct 2025; we are in early bear—exactly four years after the last one.
5. Survival Guide for Retail
Stop circle-drawing on the calendar. Watch three live signals instead:
ETF daily flow turning positive for 10+ consecutive days.
Coin per share rising in the largest DATs (MSTR, BMNR, HSDT)—they are the fastest on-chain reporters.
MVRV resetting below 1.8 with SOPR <1 for two weeks—classic washout prints.
Until two of the three flash green, treat every bounce as a bear-market rally. Keep 30–50 % dry powder, ladder stables into 6-month T-bills, and remember: in a low-vol regime, the crowd dies of boredom long before the final bottom. Outlasting the noise is the new outperforming.
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