When I first grasped the true potential of Bitcoin in early 2017, the shock was like discovering a new fire in the digital era. It was not a new alternative asset, but an entirely new paradigm, a technology that redefines money.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

A decentralized system free from arbitrary intervention by governments and central banks, providing financial autonomy to anyone who chooses to participate. It is not just an investment behavior, but a financial revolution. I wanted everyone around me to understand what I saw.

I prepared a long message and sent it via WhatsApp to 100 people, advising everyone to buy Bitcoin and also recommended a consulting service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although I had achieved some initial success in altcoin investments at the time and thought it would not be difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin assets in a few months, my understanding of the market was still in its infancy, and I did not fully understand how the logic of narratives and emotional changes drive price trends in this young market.

Based on the limited available data at the time, I gradually formed my perception of the market. Most of the altcoins launched between 2015 and 2017 lacked a long trading history to draw on. Their price charts showed what seemed to be an eternally rising trend, with small pullbacks like a "pause button" before a new round of increases.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

Buy, hold, wait, and watch the value of your holdings continue to rise. This pattern is intoxicating. The "design" concept of the cryptocurrency market seemed to be only rising, and this idea took root in my mind. The market fluctuations at the time did not scare me; I thought it was just a part that had to be experienced.

In theory, I was convinced that I could handle those market pullbacks with a normal heart, but the first major adjustment in the second quarter of 2017 completely shattered this illusion. It was not just a pullback, but a crash. The tokens that performed well in the first quarter set new lows, with declines reaching 70-80%, and our beliefs collapsed instantly.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

Watching the value of holdings shrink day by day, excitement turned into panic, and optimism turned into doubt. But I persisted, firmly believing that this was just the suffering before the next round of increases. But later, instead of doubling my Bitcoin position, I reduced it by 70-80% and returned to the original starting point.

Market uncertainty followed one after another. Bitcoin soared from $10,000 to $20,000, while altcoins struggled to recover. The market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin was chaotic; today it was hailed as the future of money, and tomorrow there would be reports of "death" all over the media: Chinese bans, regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks. Every piece of bad news would cause huge waves in the market. My initial firm belief began to waver. Are we really on the cusp of a financial revolution? Or is this just another speculative bubble destined to burst?

Then came January 2018, a month that completely refreshed my understanding of the market. Altcoins not only rebounded but also experienced explosive growth. TRX increased by 100 times in just a few weeks, and countless projects that had been criticized came back strongly, some surging tenfold, others even more. The market was in a frenzy, and everyone felt like an investment genius.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

The anxiety of the past few months dissipated with the emergence of a green candlestick. In this way, a new perception formed in my mind: perhaps this is how the market works. After experiencing a catastrophic pullback, its return will be more violent.

This belief put a veil of deception over our eyes. We tried to use the "new normal," thinking that every crash was just a prelude to the next surge. We waited for the "green month" to return, firmly believing that patience would eventually be rewarded. But so far, all of this has never come. The market continued to bleed, and the once exciting capital game gradually turned into a slow and painful reality: it turned out we were already trapped by our own high expectations. This cycle has played with us.

There are moments of extreme mania in every cycle, and in the last cycle, we saw the same scenario happen in the NFT sector. Some NFT collections surged 100 times in a short time, and such a "crazy 30 days" happened three times in a row. It felt like 2018. Hype, conviction that "this is just the beginning," FOMO, everything was strikingly similar. When the market continued to rise after two pullbacks, we thought, "Maybe this is how the market works," and chose to HODL. But the ending played out again: we lost everything. I suffered heavy losses in NFTs, as usual.

People often say "learn from one's mistakes," but the market always has a way to make you forget. Your mind will deceive you, making you believe that this time it's really different. "I know how this game works now, I won't make the same mistakes again." But the invisible traps are always there. The illusion of thinking you have control over everything and have cracked the code to wealth keeps you in the market for too long. In the end, the market is the winner. Over time, you may learn to reduce losses, but the outcome is definitely losing.

Recently, we have once again witnessed history repeat itself. This time it is the AI Agent track. It soared 100 times shortly after going public, and the ICO seems to have suddenly made a comeback. It all seems like yesterday, only with a different outfit. We believe again that this carnival cycle may last for weeks or even months.

We keep making mistakes, keep stumbling, we know what we're doing, but we can't stop it from happening. In fact, we can't control our emotions.

Perhaps now, you are emotionally thinking that everything is over, and only a few coins will rebound. But the market is always the opposite of expectations, and this time it will do the same. You may be forced to get back in or get out, and in my view, this is the fate that most retail investors are destined to face now.

The only way to help you win in this capital game is to maximize profits when you get in and minimize losses when you get out. Of course, it's easier said than done.

When I first grasped the true potential of Bitcoin in early 2017, the shock was like discovering a new fire in the digital era. It was not a new alternative asset, but an entirely new paradigm, a technology that redefines money.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

A decentralized system free from arbitrary intervention by governments and central banks, providing financial autonomy to anyone who chooses to participate. It is not just an investment behavior, but a financial revolution. I wanted everyone around me to understand what I saw.

I prepared a long message and sent it via WhatsApp to 100 people, advising everyone to buy Bitcoin and also recommended a consulting service that could help them increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although I had achieved some initial success in altcoin investments at the time and thought it would not be difficult to double everyone's Bitcoin assets in a few months, my understanding of the market was still in its infancy, and I did not fully understand how the logic of narratives and emotional changes drive price trends in this young market.

Based on the limited available data at the time, I gradually formed my perception of the market. Most of the altcoins launched between 2015 and 2017 lacked a long trading history to draw on. Their price charts showed what seemed to be an eternally rising trend, with small pullbacks like a "pause button" before a new round of increases.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

Buy, hold, wait, and watch the value of your holdings continue to rise. This pattern is intoxicating. The "design" concept of the cryptocurrency market seemed to be only rising, and this idea took root in my mind. The market fluctuations at the time did not scare me; I thought it was just a part that had to be experienced.

In theory, I was convinced that I could handle those market pullbacks with a normal heart, but the first major adjustment in the second quarter of 2017 completely shattered this illusion. It was not just a pullback, but a crash. The tokens that performed well in the first quarter set new lows, with declines reaching 70-80%, and our beliefs collapsed instantly.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

Watching the value of holdings shrink day by day, excitement turned into panic, and optimism turned into doubt. But I persisted, firmly believing that this was just the suffering before the next round of increases. But later, instead of doubling my Bitcoin position, I reduced it by 70-80% and returned to the original starting point.

Market uncertainty followed one after another. Bitcoin soared from $10,000 to $20,000, while altcoins struggled to recover. The market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin was chaotic; today it was hailed as the future of money, and tomorrow there would be reports of "death" all over the media: Chinese bans, regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks. Every piece of bad news would cause huge waves in the market. My initial firm belief began to waver. Are we really on the cusp of a financial revolution? Or is this just another speculative bubble destined to burst?

Then came January 2018, a month that completely refreshed my understanding of the market. Altcoins not only rebounded but also experienced explosive growth. TRX increased by 100 times in just a few weeks, and countless projects that had been criticized came back strongly, some surging tenfold, others even more. The market was in a frenzy, and everyone felt like an investment genius.

The "Curse of Cycles" in the Crypto Market: Knowing the Bubble Will Burst, Why Do We Still Lose Everything Over and Over Again?

The anxiety of the past few months dissipated with the emergence of a green candlestick. In this way, a new perception formed in my mind: perhaps this is how the market works. After experiencing a catastrophic pullback, its return will be more violent.

This belief put a veil of deception over our eyes. We tried to use the "new normal," thinking that every crash was just a prelude to the next surge. We waited for the "green month" to return, firmly believing that patience would eventually be rewarded. But so far, all of this has never come. The market continued to bleed, and the once exciting capital game gradually turned into a slow and painful reality: it turned out we were already trapped by our own high expectations. This cycle has played with us.

There are moments of extreme mania in every cycle, and in the last cycle, we saw the same scenario happen in the NFT sector. Some NFT collections surged 100 times in a short time, and such a "crazy 30 days" happened three times in a row. It felt like 2018. Hype, conviction that "this is just the beginning," FOMO, everything was strikingly similar. When the market continued to rise after two pullbacks, we thought, "Maybe this is how the market works," and chose to HODL. But the ending played out again: we lost everything. I suffered heavy losses in NFTs, as usual.

People often say "learn from one's mistakes," but the market always has a way to make you forget. Your mind will deceive you, making you believe that this time it's really different. "I know how this game works now, I won't make the same mistakes again." But the invisible traps are always there. The illusion of thinking you have control over everything and have cracked the code to wealth keeps you in the market for too long. In the end, the market is the winner. Over time, you may learn to reduce losses, but the outcome is definitely losing.

Recently, we have once again witnessed history repeat itself. This time it is the AI Agent track. It soared 100 times shortly after going public, and the ICO seems to have suddenly made a comeback. It all seems like yesterday, only with a different outfit. We believe again that this carnival cycle may last for weeks or even months.

We keep making mistakes, keep stumbling, we know what we're doing, but we can't stop it from happening. In fact, we can't control our emotions.

Perhaps now, you are emotionally thinking that everything is over, and only a few coins will rebound. But the market is always the opposite of expectations, and this time it will do the same. You may be forced to get back in or get out, and in my view, this is the fate that most retail investors are destined to face now.

The only way to help you win in this capital game is to maximize profits when you get in and minimize losses when you get out. Of course, it's easier said than done.