Check the original FUD opinion here:
The original text's details are not rigorously substantiated, with many lacking sufficient evidence and data, so there's no need to dwell on many practical specifics. However, this doesn't mean that because the details are flawed, the entire narrative or "big picture" is incorrect; quite the contrary, I believe the "big picture" part of this narrative is highly valuable and possesses a certain logical coherence in its inferred trajectory.
From the perspective of financial industry bubbles, I indeed believe the current state of the entire Crypto market is similar to "2003 during the 2008 financial crisis." For anyone who has seen The Big Short, there was coincidentally a conference on the West Coast where the prevailing narratives of the time included "eternal bull market" and "eternal deferment of capitalism."
Similarly, we are seeing the recent emergence of voices suggesting "Crypto is behaving like US stocks," and narratives such as "the four-year cycle is invalid" and "eternal Crypto bull market" will undoubtedly amplify (as Bitcoin cycles become more numerous, these voices grow stronger with each cycle). Such narratives undoubtedly form the fertile ground for a super-bubble. It's crucial to remember that "narrative is a superpower," much like how stories shaped human education in the early Stone Age, preserving knowledge and heritage, ultimately shaping technology and society.
USDT and USDC are currently anchored by Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury bonds. As the overall scale of U.S. Treasury bonds continues to grow, the risk associated with U.S. Treasury bonds is steadily increasing. The "issue stablecoins - buy U.S. Treasury bonds/BTC - issue stablecoins" loop described in the original text is something I anticipated in 2023, which is why BTC is bound to rise, including in the next four-year cycle. The critical point of danger lies in U.S. Treasury bonds.
Conversely, if the U.S. debt problem can be resolved—that is, if the long-term competitiveness of the U.S. dollar can be sustained by developments in industries like AI, 3D printing, and Crypto mass adoption, thereby enhancing economic competitiveness—then U.S. Treasury bonds will find support, and the short-to-medium term U.S. debt problem can be partially addressed (continuing to defer it as a long-term issue).
In the long run, this will involve deeper economic models. U.S. debt will inevitably face problems in the long term because U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar represent globalization, not just one country, yet they are borne by one country (in a bad scenario) or profit-captured by one country (in a good scenario). Therefore, stablecoins, Real-World Assets (RWA), and the crypto-ization of the global economy are inevitable trends, as is the crypto-ization of the U.S. dollar (i.e., planetary-ization, breaking free from the constraints of a "single nation"). The concept of a "planetary onchain economy" represents a new systemic shift, where economic rights are homogeneously distributed, characterized by permissionless, fast, and verifiable interactions. This marks a fundamental transformation of the concept of a world currency since the advent of Bitcoin.
Based on the trends described above, there will inevitably be a need for more derivatives, just as in the 2008 financial crisis—the emergence of ABS, REITs, CDO, and CDS is a matter of course. However, these derivatives will also face regulation from the SEC. Overall, the stablecoin wave will undoubtedly lead to a massive bubble, one that will rapidly pull real-world assets (currency derivatives, stocks, and bonds) onto the chain, bringing the global economy onchain.
Will it move too fast, creating too large a bubble that leads to collapse? Possibly. Is it collapsing now? No, it's not.
A: Global Stablecoin Hegemony & Burst. The stablecoin wave sweeps across the globe, with the U.S. dollar formally upgrading to a planetary currency, and the Federal Reserve becoming the de facto global government. Stablecoin derivatives catalyze an enormous bubble, which bursts between 2028 and 2030, causing a global economic collapse. How? In details, we don't know how yet, but it is a trend.
B: Regulated & Orderly Growth. During the process of creating a bubble, the stablecoin wave faces stringent SEC regulation. The development of the Crypto industry then mirrors the U.S. financial industry between 1928 and 1986, supporting the global economic development cycle in an orderly and stable manner.
C: Bubble Rechanneled into New Economy. The stablecoin wave generates a bubble, but this bubble is channeled towards integration with AI, 3D printing, and new energy industries. The bubble is ultimately locked into a brand new "Fourth Industry" (AI+Crypto+3D printing+New Energy), and the problems of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt become irrelevant due to the pulling effect of this new economic engine.
These scenarios are not isolated from each other; in the real world, several scenarios generally occur simultaneously in the mid-to-early stages, then "collapse" after a certain "turning point" (or Inflection Point), accelerating at an extremely fast pace into the end-game of a single scenario.
Special thanks: @stellarmadic
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On 'Bitcoin’s whole story is a staged illusion, scripted by insiders' Will it move too fast, creating too large a bubble that leads to collapse? Possibly. Is it collapsing now? Several scenarios could emerge during 2025 - 2030. https://paragraph.com/@aaronchainbrain/on-bitcoins-whole-story-is-a-staged-illusion-scripted-by-insiders