The inflation in the short term stems from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Covid19 epidemic in China. But in the long run, the chaos of the international supply chain is the react the reconstruction of the world economic system. China and Russia will be expelled from the new system caused of the ideological conflict. And even in the United States, the political-ideological gap between the two parties is spread, which I believe is caused by the different rewards of globalization between different classes in the US. The new worldwide ideological conflict structure and the gap between rich and poor will devastate international cooperation, and ruin the economies of scale globally. The new world supply chain will be built in the next few years. But even if the task is done. The new supply chain is an alternative economic choice rather than the supply chain including China and Russia.

As a result, the inflation from the supply side is unstoppable. the raise of the FED’s rate can only reduce the demand side, which means FED chooses a recession against inflation. So the bear market is a long-term state. We need to wait for the technology adoption and development will dominate the market spirit. I expect it will take at least half a year or a year. And since we could not solve the supply-chain problem, the recovery phase will be dull and long.

The inflation in the short term stems from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the Covid19 epidemic in China. But in the long run, the chaos of the international supply chain is the react the reconstruction of the world economic system. China and Russia will be expelled from the new system caused of the ideological conflict. And even in the United States, the political-ideological gap between the two parties is spread, which I believe is caused by the different rewards of globalization between different classes in the US. The new worldwide ideological conflict structure and the gap between rich and poor will devastate international cooperation, and ruin the economies of scale globally. The new world supply chain will be built in the next few years. But even if the task is done. The new supply chain is an alternative economic choice rather than the supply chain including China and Russia.

As a result, the inflation from the supply side is unstoppable. the raise of the FED’s rate can only reduce the demand side, which means FED chooses a recession against inflation. So the bear market is a long-term state. We need to wait for the technology adoption and development will dominate the market spirit. I expect it will take at least half a year or a year. And since we could not solve the supply-chain problem, the recovery phase will be dull and long.