Why You Should Care (Even If You Hate Macro) Central-bank liquidity is the WD-40 of the world economy.Too much → asset bubbles.Too little → seized pistons (and your date ghosts you). Track the flow and you front-run the pop or the crash.2020-2025 in Four StagesDeluge (2020-2021) – ZIRP + record QE + US$16 trn fiscal bazooka – Global M2 growth fastest since WWIIDry-Out (2021-2022) – 500 bp rate hikes, QT starts, pandemic aid expires – 2022 = worst bond year ever (-17 %)Plateau (2022-2024) – Po...

Why You Should Care (Even If You Hate Macro) Central-bank liquidity is the WD-40 of the world economy.Too much → asset bubbles.Too little → seized pistons (and your date ghosts you). Track the flow and you front-run the pop or the crash.2020-2025 in Four StagesDeluge (2020-2021) – ZIRP + record QE + US$16 trn fiscal bazooka – Global M2 growth fastest since WWIIDry-Out (2021-2022) – 500 bp rate hikes, QT starts, pandemic aid expires – 2022 = worst bond year ever (-17 %)Plateau (2022-2024) – Po...