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Bitcoin EcosystemDependency Trap: The Risk Behind AI Convenience
Today, anyone can spin up a prototype by chatting with a large language model or generate images without a design degree. Yet this super-power can vanish overnight. We neither own nor control it. A handful of corporations—OpenAI, Anthropic, Google—own the racks, the GPUs and the switch that powers most online services. We rent their brains. Picture the morning they pull the plug: a server hiccup freezes your product; a geofence locks out your country; a price hike prices out your start-up. In...
Bitcoin EcosystemSmart "Gatekeeper": How Conditional Liquidity is Rewriting Solana's Trading Rules?
Conditional Liquidity is a major innovation in the DeFi space aimed at addressing the shortcomings of traditional passive liquidity models, particularly on high-performance public chains like Solana. It seeks to redefine trading fairness and efficiency through intelligent rules. The Dilemma of Traditional DEXs Under the conventional Automated Market Maker (AMM) model, liquidity pools are open 24/7, making regular users vulnerable to "toxic order flow" such as sandwich attacks and front-runnin...
Bitcoin EcosystemForget Hyperliquid — The Next Wave of Perp DEXs Will Be on Solana
The next wave of growth for perpetual futures decentralized exchanges may emerge within the Solana ecosystem, not on Hyperliquid. The core arguments are as follows: * Architectural Advantages: Solana allows for application-specific optimizations at the validator level. Running a dedicated trading engine within validator nodes can achieve a sub-second trading experience comparable to Hyperliquid. Compared to Ethereum L2s, which are burdened by technical debt like centralized sequencers, transa...
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Bitcoin EcosystemGlobal Liquidity Cycle Cheat-Sheet: Where Are We Right Now?
Subscribe to Bitcoin Ecosystem
<100 subscribers
Support Bitcoin Ecosystem
Bitcoin EcosystemGlobal Liquidity Cycle Cheat-Sheet: Where Are We Right Now?
Bitcoin EcosystemDependency Trap: The Risk Behind AI Convenience
Today, anyone can spin up a prototype by chatting with a large language model or generate images without a design degree. Yet this super-power can vanish overnight. We neither own nor control it. A handful of corporations—OpenAI, Anthropic, Google—own the racks, the GPUs and the switch that powers most online services. We rent their brains. Picture the morning they pull the plug: a server hiccup freezes your product; a geofence locks out your country; a price hike prices out your start-up. In...
Bitcoin EcosystemSmart "Gatekeeper": How Conditional Liquidity is Rewriting Solana's Trading Rules?
Conditional Liquidity is a major innovation in the DeFi space aimed at addressing the shortcomings of traditional passive liquidity models, particularly on high-performance public chains like Solana. It seeks to redefine trading fairness and efficiency through intelligent rules. The Dilemma of Traditional DEXs Under the conventional Automated Market Maker (AMM) model, liquidity pools are open 24/7, making regular users vulnerable to "toxic order flow" such as sandwich attacks and front-runnin...
Bitcoin EcosystemForget Hyperliquid — The Next Wave of Perp DEXs Will Be on Solana
The next wave of growth for perpetual futures decentralized exchanges may emerge within the Solana ecosystem, not on Hyperliquid. The core arguments are as follows: * Architectural Advantages: Solana allows for application-specific optimizations at the validator level. Running a dedicated trading engine within validator nodes can achieve a sub-second trading experience comparable to Hyperliquid. Compared to Ethereum L2s, which are burdened by technical debt like centralized sequencers, transa...
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Why You Should Care (Even If You Hate Macro)
Central-bank liquidity is the WD-40 of the world economy.
Too much → asset bubbles.
Too little → seized pistons (and your date ghosts you).
Track the flow and you front-run the pop or the crash.
2020-2025 in Four Stages
Deluge (2020-2021)
– ZIRP + record QE + US$16 trn fiscal bazooka
– Global M2 growth fastest since WWII
Dry-Out (2021-2022)
– 500 bp rate hikes, QT starts, pandemic aid expires
– 2022 = worst bond year ever (-17 %)
Plateau (2022-2024)
– Policy left on “auto-tight” to kill inflation
Pivot-Beginning (2024-2025)
– Global easing starts, though rates remain high
– Today: one foot still on the plateau, the other testing the first step down
The 2025 Mid-Year Dashboard
(🔴 = off = early = full-on)
Lever | 2017 | 2021 | Mid-2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Policy Rate Cuts | 🔴 hiking | emergency ZIRP | first cuts penciled for Q4-25 | watch Fed/ECB tone shift |
QE / QT | Fed taper, others buying | record global QE | QT still on; BoJ buying, PBoC selective | Fed QT continues |
Fiscal Pulse | 🔴 neutral | record stimulus | modest new packages | grid-locked US, targeted Asia |
Bank Lending Standards | easing | ultra-loose | 🔴 still tight | Fed SLOOS >40 % tight |
USD Funding Stress | low | 🔴 repo spike | FRA-OIS ~15 bp | >25 bp = red alert |
EM Liquidity (PBoC RRR) | 🔴 hikes | cuts | 25 bp RRR cut rumoured | 4000 bn CNY if triggered |
Credit Creation | slow | explosive | subdued | waiting for green light |
Risk Appetite (VIX) | 🔴 low vol | meme euphoria | VIX 15-20 | not yet risk-on |
Crypto Liquidity | 🔴 bear | DeFi summer | selective flows | stable-coin supply flat |
Equity Buybacks | normal | record | still low | await cheaper funding |
Cross-Border Flows | 🔴 strong USD | weak USD | mixed | USD still firm |
Real-Estate Credit | 🔴 tightening | boom | 🔴 global slump | waiting for policy pivot |
Key Signals to Watch Next
Fed/ECB shift to “balanced risks” language → unlocks rate-cut narrative
QT pause or full reinvestment → first net liquidity add since 2022
FRA-OIS >25 bp or GC repo spike → forces Fed backstop (S.R.F.)
PBoC 25 bp RRR cut → EM liquidity domino #1
The Bottom Line
We are not back in “deluge” mode.
Until more levers flip green, expect continued risk-on / risk-off whipsaws—not full-blown euphoria.
Why You Should Care (Even If You Hate Macro)
Central-bank liquidity is the WD-40 of the world economy.
Too much → asset bubbles.
Too little → seized pistons (and your date ghosts you).
Track the flow and you front-run the pop or the crash.
2020-2025 in Four Stages
Deluge (2020-2021)
– ZIRP + record QE + US$16 trn fiscal bazooka
– Global M2 growth fastest since WWII
Dry-Out (2021-2022)
– 500 bp rate hikes, QT starts, pandemic aid expires
– 2022 = worst bond year ever (-17 %)
Plateau (2022-2024)
– Policy left on “auto-tight” to kill inflation
Pivot-Beginning (2024-2025)
– Global easing starts, though rates remain high
– Today: one foot still on the plateau, the other testing the first step down
The 2025 Mid-Year Dashboard
(🔴 = off = early = full-on)
Lever | 2017 | 2021 | Mid-2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Policy Rate Cuts | 🔴 hiking | emergency ZIRP | first cuts penciled for Q4-25 | watch Fed/ECB tone shift |
QE / QT | Fed taper, others buying | record global QE | QT still on; BoJ buying, PBoC selective | Fed QT continues |
Fiscal Pulse | 🔴 neutral | record stimulus | modest new packages | grid-locked US, targeted Asia |
Bank Lending Standards | easing | ultra-loose | 🔴 still tight | Fed SLOOS >40 % tight |
USD Funding Stress | low | 🔴 repo spike | FRA-OIS ~15 bp | >25 bp = red alert |
EM Liquidity (PBoC RRR) | 🔴 hikes | cuts | 25 bp RRR cut rumoured | 4000 bn CNY if triggered |
Credit Creation | slow | explosive | subdued | waiting for green light |
Risk Appetite (VIX) | 🔴 low vol | meme euphoria | VIX 15-20 | not yet risk-on |
Crypto Liquidity | 🔴 bear | DeFi summer | selective flows | stable-coin supply flat |
Equity Buybacks | normal | record | still low | await cheaper funding |
Cross-Border Flows | 🔴 strong USD | weak USD | mixed | USD still firm |
Real-Estate Credit | 🔴 tightening | boom | 🔴 global slump | waiting for policy pivot |
Key Signals to Watch Next
Fed/ECB shift to “balanced risks” language → unlocks rate-cut narrative
QT pause or full reinvestment → first net liquidity add since 2022
FRA-OIS >25 bp or GC repo spike → forces Fed backstop (S.R.F.)
PBoC 25 bp RRR cut → EM liquidity domino #1
The Bottom Line
We are not back in “deluge” mode.
Until more levers flip green, expect continued risk-on / risk-off whipsaws—not full-blown euphoria.
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