Disclaimer: This article reflects our personal analysis and opinions regarding the $Donut ecosystem. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice (NFA).

The party is over. The tourists have gone home. The confetti from early December is being swept up by the janitors.

The $DONUT chart currently looks like a half-eaten cruller left out in the rain.
A huge retracement that has shaken out every paper-handed speculator who thought "up only" was a law of physics.
But if you look past the red candles, something strange is happening in the kitchen. The "Mercenary Miners" have fled, leaving the supply in the hands of a mathematical beast: The Protocol itself.

The flush is complete. The tourists are gone. Now, the real baking begins.

History rarely repeats, but it rhymes. Just like Bitcoin’s 2017 top, the $DONUT market front-ran the first halving with greedy abandon.

• The Mania: Few days before ATH, everyone tried to fit through the door at the same time, spiking the price to $0.53.

• Reality Check: After the halving hit, the "easy money" vanished.
  The price collapsed to $0.06, a brutal efficiency test that liquidated the optimists.

• Current Vibe: Silence.

  Trading volume has cratered from its $110M+ mania peak to a "quiet" $15M daily. We witnessed the "Disbelief" phase of the market cycle, compressed into a mere three weeks window. In crypto, attention is a currency—and right now, the crowd is chasing newer, shinier toys across Base.
  

While the price bled, the foundation hardened. A staggering 31% of the total $DONUT supply is now locked in the Liquidity Pool.

The Physics: Most micro-caps die because liquidity dries up; you can’t exit without crashing the price to zero. $DONUT is trying to be different.
The protocol’s "Tax" mechanism has been relentlessly buying LP tokens and burning them.

• The Result: The protocol has built a Concrete Floor. It has become its own "Buyer of Last Resort."
  It is mathematically becoming harder to kill this token with every passing transaction.

We are currently sitting in the eye of the hurricane.
Right now, the oven is generous (2.0 DONUT/sec). In exactly 14 days, the chef walks into the kitchen and cuts the pizza size in half (1.0/sec).

• The Squeeze: Miners who are barely breaking even today at $0.06 will wake up on Jan 7th and realize their electricity bill (ETH cost) roughly stayed the same, but their paycheck was cut by 50%.

• The Reaction: History tells us the market is inefficient. It waits until the last minute to panic. Smart money positions before the supply shock becomes obvious.

The Play:
The period between Christmas and New Year's is historically low volume.
While the crowd is distracted by eggnog and holiday traveling, the supply curve is silently marching toward the cliff.

Action: Be ready in case of a "Front-Run" rally to begin around Jan 2nd. If you aren't positioned before the crowd realizes the oven is shrinking, you're just paying for their exit liquidity.

Glaze responsibly. 🍩

Disclaimer: This article reflects our personal analysis and opinions regarding the $Donut ecosystem. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice (NFA).

The party is over. The tourists have gone home. The confetti from early December is being swept up by the janitors.

The $DONUT chart currently looks like a half-eaten cruller left out in the rain.
A huge retracement that has shaken out every paper-handed speculator who thought "up only" was a law of physics.
But if you look past the red candles, something strange is happening in the kitchen. The "Mercenary Miners" have fled, leaving the supply in the hands of a mathematical beast: The Protocol itself.

The flush is complete. The tourists are gone. Now, the real baking begins.

History rarely repeats, but it rhymes. Just like Bitcoin’s 2017 top, the $DONUT market front-ran the first halving with greedy abandon.

• The Mania: Few days before ATH, everyone tried to fit through the door at the same time, spiking the price to $0.53.

• Reality Check: After the halving hit, the "easy money" vanished.
  The price collapsed to $0.06, a brutal efficiency test that liquidated the optimists.

• Current Vibe: Silence.

  Trading volume has cratered from its $110M+ mania peak to a "quiet" $15M daily. We witnessed the "Disbelief" phase of the market cycle, compressed into a mere three weeks window. In crypto, attention is a currency—and right now, the crowd is chasing newer, shinier toys across Base.
  

While the price bled, the foundation hardened. A staggering 31% of the total $DONUT supply is now locked in the Liquidity Pool.

The Physics: Most micro-caps die because liquidity dries up; you can’t exit without crashing the price to zero. $DONUT is trying to be different.
The protocol’s "Tax" mechanism has been relentlessly buying LP tokens and burning them.

• The Result: The protocol has built a Concrete Floor. It has become its own "Buyer of Last Resort."
  It is mathematically becoming harder to kill this token with every passing transaction.

We are currently sitting in the eye of the hurricane.
Right now, the oven is generous (2.0 DONUT/sec). In exactly 14 days, the chef walks into the kitchen and cuts the pizza size in half (1.0/sec).

• The Squeeze: Miners who are barely breaking even today at $0.06 will wake up on Jan 7th and realize their electricity bill (ETH cost) roughly stayed the same, but their paycheck was cut by 50%.

• The Reaction: History tells us the market is inefficient. It waits until the last minute to panic. Smart money positions before the supply shock becomes obvious.

The Play:
The period between Christmas and New Year's is historically low volume.
While the crowd is distracted by eggnog and holiday traveling, the supply curve is silently marching toward the cliff.

Action: Be ready in case of a "Front-Run" rally to begin around Jan 2nd. If you aren't positioned before the crowd realizes the oven is shrinking, you're just paying for their exit liquidity.

Glaze responsibly. 🍩