You want a crystal ball. And so do I! Especially true these couple of "market correction" days. 🤑

We all do. Founders, investors, traders—we are all obsessed with knowing what happens next. We pay consultants millions, subscribe to "alpha" groups, and obsess over market trends, all in the hopes of eliminating uncertainty.

Here is the uncomfortable truth:

If you could actually predict the future with 100% certainty, you would instantly break it.

Imagine you knew for a fact that a specific token would 100x tomorrow at noon. You would buy it now. So would everyone else who knew. The price would skyrocket today, not tomorrow. By acting on the prediction, you destroyed the prediction.

The universe is chaotic. It’s the "butterfly effect" on steroids.

"Predicting the future with absolute certainty is impossible. There are too many variables, known and unknown, that influence outcomes."

Yet, here is the paradox.

While you can’t predict the macro future, your brain is predicting the micro future every single second.

You don't realize it, but you are a probabilistic forecasting engine.

You don't walk into walls because your brain predicts solidity. You drink coffee because you predict energy (and not poison). You leave your house at 8:00 AM because you predict traffic patterns based on historical data.

We all make predictions constantly.

If we didn't, we’d be paralyzed. We wouldn't be able to catch a ball, drive a car, or have a conversation (which requires predicting how the other person will react).

The funny part? We are terrible at it when it counts.

I have a developer friend—let’s call him "Two-Day Dave." For five years, Dave has predicted that every single feature, no matter how complex, will take "just two days" to build.

His brain uses a dataset of optimism, ignoring the historical dataset of bugs, scope creep, and reality.

Or think about the "Just One Episode" prediction. You sit down at 10 PM to watch one episode of a show. Your brain predicts a good night's sleep by 11 PM. Fast forward to 3 AM, and you’re looking like a zombie, realizing your prediction model was overpowered by a Netflix variable called "cliffhangers."

The mistake founders and amateur traders make isn't that they try to predict the future. It's that they confuse Prophecy with Probability.

Meteorologists don't know if it will rain.

A "70% chance of rain" means that in the past, under similar conditions, it rained 70% of the time. It is a calculation of risk, not a vision of destiny.

Economists and investors use historical data to forecast trends, but these are "educated guesses, not certainties."

Founders need to think like meteorologists, not fortune tellers.

When you build a startup, you aren't predicting that "Everyone will want this." You are betting that:

1. The problem is real.

2. The solution is viable.

3. The probability of adoption is higher than the cost of execution.

And then you work maniacally on increasing the probability of being "true" of each of the bets.

If you accept that you can't know the future:

1. You stop being paralyzed by the need for certainty.

2. You stop being delusional about everyone caring about what you do and wanting your product.

You need to operate in the gap between "I know nothing" and "I know everything." That gap is called Conviction.

Conviction is simply a strong belief in a high-probability outcome, held loosely enough to change when new data arrives. And being examined constantly for ways to increase the probability of a successful outcome.

So, stop trying to find the cheat code. Stop trying to predict the exact price of ETH in 2030 or exactly which feature will make you viral.

Instead, refine your models. Look at the data. Make the best probabilistic bet you can.

And when "Two-Day Dave" tells you the API integration will be done by Friday ... predict next Wednesday.

1. Precise predictions are a myth. If you saw the future, your reaction would change it.

2. You are a prediction machine. Your brain runs on probabilistic loops to survive everyday life.

3. Distinguish Prophecy from Probability. One is magic; the other is risk management. Use the latter.

4. Data beats delusion. Base your bets on historical patterns (like weather models), not just optimism.

5. Build on conviction, not certainty. If you wait for zero risk, you’ve already failed.

Till next time, let's BUILD BETTER (and trade less)! 😉

BFG

You want a crystal ball. And so do I! Especially true these couple of "market correction" days. 🤑

We all do. Founders, investors, traders—we are all obsessed with knowing what happens next. We pay consultants millions, subscribe to "alpha" groups, and obsess over market trends, all in the hopes of eliminating uncertainty.

Here is the uncomfortable truth:

If you could actually predict the future with 100% certainty, you would instantly break it.

Imagine you knew for a fact that a specific token would 100x tomorrow at noon. You would buy it now. So would everyone else who knew. The price would skyrocket today, not tomorrow. By acting on the prediction, you destroyed the prediction.

The universe is chaotic. It’s the "butterfly effect" on steroids.

"Predicting the future with absolute certainty is impossible. There are too many variables, known and unknown, that influence outcomes."

Yet, here is the paradox.

While you can’t predict the macro future, your brain is predicting the micro future every single second.

You don't realize it, but you are a probabilistic forecasting engine.

You don't walk into walls because your brain predicts solidity. You drink coffee because you predict energy (and not poison). You leave your house at 8:00 AM because you predict traffic patterns based on historical data.

We all make predictions constantly.

If we didn't, we’d be paralyzed. We wouldn't be able to catch a ball, drive a car, or have a conversation (which requires predicting how the other person will react).

The funny part? We are terrible at it when it counts.

I have a developer friend—let’s call him "Two-Day Dave." For five years, Dave has predicted that every single feature, no matter how complex, will take "just two days" to build.

His brain uses a dataset of optimism, ignoring the historical dataset of bugs, scope creep, and reality.

Or think about the "Just One Episode" prediction. You sit down at 10 PM to watch one episode of a show. Your brain predicts a good night's sleep by 11 PM. Fast forward to 3 AM, and you’re looking like a zombie, realizing your prediction model was overpowered by a Netflix variable called "cliffhangers."

The mistake founders and amateur traders make isn't that they try to predict the future. It's that they confuse Prophecy with Probability.

Meteorologists don't know if it will rain.

A "70% chance of rain" means that in the past, under similar conditions, it rained 70% of the time. It is a calculation of risk, not a vision of destiny.

Economists and investors use historical data to forecast trends, but these are "educated guesses, not certainties."

Founders need to think like meteorologists, not fortune tellers.

When you build a startup, you aren't predicting that "Everyone will want this." You are betting that:

1. The problem is real.

2. The solution is viable.

3. The probability of adoption is higher than the cost of execution.

And then you work maniacally on increasing the probability of being "true" of each of the bets.

If you accept that you can't know the future:

1. You stop being paralyzed by the need for certainty.

2. You stop being delusional about everyone caring about what you do and wanting your product.

You need to operate in the gap between "I know nothing" and "I know everything." That gap is called Conviction.

Conviction is simply a strong belief in a high-probability outcome, held loosely enough to change when new data arrives. And being examined constantly for ways to increase the probability of a successful outcome.

So, stop trying to find the cheat code. Stop trying to predict the exact price of ETH in 2030 or exactly which feature will make you viral.

Instead, refine your models. Look at the data. Make the best probabilistic bet you can.

And when "Two-Day Dave" tells you the API integration will be done by Friday ... predict next Wednesday.

1. Precise predictions are a myth. If you saw the future, your reaction would change it.

2. You are a prediction machine. Your brain runs on probabilistic loops to survive everyday life.

3. Distinguish Prophecy from Probability. One is magic; the other is risk management. Use the latter.

4. Data beats delusion. Base your bets on historical patterns (like weather models), not just optimism.

5. Build on conviction, not certainty. If you wait for zero risk, you’ve already failed.

Till next time, let's BUILD BETTER (and trade less)! 😉

BFG