Key takeaways:
TechDev suggests 'what if we're barely halfway' through our current market cycle with a new all-time high yet to come.
He says this cycle's 'glacial pace' is 'confuding many'.
Bitcoin's price is represented in logarithmic scale, possibly misleading.
A business cycle oscillator is a trend indicator that helps traders identify potential turning points and momentum shifts within the business cycle tracking overbought/oversold conditions.
The red bars indicate cycle expansion and rising momentum and correlate with Bitcoin's local peaks over the years.
Green bars represent cycle contraction, declining macro momentum and typically correlates to the 'bear market'.
Dashed yellow line traces the long-term macro crypto cycle.
Instead of assuming Bitcoin's price for this cycle peaked in early October at $126,000, the chart portrays something different.
It suggests the top is yet to come and that we're only halfway through.
Bitcoin's price (represented on the chart by the white line) may look weird, this is because Bitcoin's price is in a logarithmic (log) scale rather than linear as you can see from the USD values on the far right.
Although log price scales are typically used for long-term perspective price analysis it visually hides sharp tops such as October's $126,000.
On a log scale a move from $10,000 to $100,000 looks as big as $10 to $100.
Sudden reversals like Bitcoin's recent 35% fall from its October top look visually muted and more comparable to a correction rather than the indication of a bearish trend.
While the chart clearly compares Bitcoin's cycles over the years it may be misleading to the untrained eye; muting local peaks and compressing recent volatility all in favour of portraying a smooth, embellished sense of predictability.
Thank you for reading.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always DYOR & trade intentionally.
ismail delal
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